Sedriques Dumas -218 vs Denis Tiuliulin +180<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis could be a fight where we look back and think -218 was a gift. Denis Tiuliulin is cooked as a UFC fighter, and this is probably where he gets cut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s lost 3 in a row, and he\u2019s been finished in all 3, and he hasn\u2019t shown any upside on offense as he can\u2019t wrestle or get takedowns, and his striking is slow and ineffective. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dumas isn\u2019t great, but he\u2019s younger, more athletic, and I think he\u2019ll have no trouble taking Denis down and wearing him out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dumas has gone the distance in some fights so his cardio should be better as well. Dumas is the pick here<\/strong>, and is a great parlay piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLucie Pudilova -125 vs Luana Carolina +105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJai Herbert -192 vs Rolando Bedoya +160<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBedoya came in on short notice and fought great against Khaos Williams, but he regressed in his second fight losing to Kenan Song where he won the first round, but then dropped the next 2 rounds, and he got tired in round 3 which cost him the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just don\u2019t know what he does great. His striking is meh, he doesn\u2019t seem to have a great ground game, he\u2019s not fast, I just don\u2019t see any upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Herbert will be much faster, and even though hs\u2019s 2-4-1 in his last 7 fights his losses have been to really good fighters including Topuria and Moicano. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I like Herbert to be faster on the feet, and I expect him to put on a veteran clinic showing different looks, and different levels to frustrate Bedoya. I like this fight to go the distance, and I think Herbert by decision is a nice play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVictoria Dudakova -180 vs Sam Hughes +150<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think the wrong fighter is favored here. Dudakova is 8-0, and she\u2019s 2-0 in the UFC, but she won her first fight because Nunes dislocated her elbow 30 second in, and then she beat Jinh Yu Frey (who is awful), but she struggled and got taken down once. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She had to pull out of her last fight because of a bad weight cut, and I think she gets her first loss here. Hughes has a non-stop motor, and she\u2019ll still be pushing forward in the 3rd round which is a problem for Dudakova who doesn\u2019t have great cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dudakova\u2019s striking isn\u2019t elite, and I won\u2019t be surprised to see Hughes get Dudakova on the ground and control big chunks of time like she did against Amorim. Dudakova is very beatable, I think Hughes gets it done at plus money<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShamil Gaziev -250 vs Dontale Mayes +205<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI can\u2019t believe Mayes has won 2 out of 3, but when you fight the corpse of Andrew Arlovski, and Caio Machado who has no cardio after 3 minutes, you get winnable fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, Gaziev is better than Mayes\u2019s recent opponents and I think he dominates this one. Gaziev has had a strange start to his UFC career as he smoked Martin Buday in his debut, and then found himself in a 5-round main event against Rozenstruik in his second fight where he was outclassed and had his lack of striking defense exposed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s going to have the better striking and the better cardio, and I also think he\u2019s going to be better in the clinch where I expect a lot of this fight to take place. Mayes doesn\u2019t have any upside, he\u2019s slow and doesn\u2019t have the striking to scare Gaziev. Gaziev should roll<\/strong> in this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Guram Kutateladze -240 vs Jordan Vucenic +188<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI can\u2019t believe Guram is coming in off a 2 fight losing streak, but he lost a close split decision, and then got gassed and finished by Brener. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
After that amazing fight against Gamrot, I thought we would see him fly up the rankings, but that fight was in 2020, and he\u2019s only fought twice since then, losing both. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jordan Vucenic steps in on short notice, and while he\u2019s 13-2 he\u2019s fought awful competition. He looks to have decent striking, and a good submission game, but if Guram is fighting at the level he\u2019s capable of, I think he schools Vucenic with his movement, and grappling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That being said, I don\u2019t know what Guram has been doing or what shape he\u2019s in so I\u2019ll stay away from this fight<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKaue Fernandes -340 vs Mohammad Yahya +270<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNeither of these guys are great UFC fighters, but I\u2019m really low on Yahya. He came in to the UFC to fight Trevor Peek, and I didn\u2019t have high expectations, and he was worse than I thought. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking isn\u2019t good, he\u2019s hittable on the feet, and Peek was able to control him against the fence and on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Overall, he just looks tentative, and not UFC caliber. Even just the way he stands and holds his hands in the octagon doesn\u2019t look crisp. Fernandes lost a close fight in his debut to Diakiese, but he was competitive despite getting taken down several times by Diakiese. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Yahya is a fade, but there\u2019s no chance I\u2019m laying -340 on Fernandes. I think these guys are pretty equal, and with their limited offense I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see this fight go the distance so taking overs might be solid plays<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAzamat Murzakanov -205 vs Alonzo Menifield +170 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMurzakanov goes for 14-0, and while I think he gets it, I think this could be much closer than the odds would suggest. His striking is good, and so is his wrestling, but he wasn\u2019t exactly dominant against Dustin Jacoby, and in the third round Jacoby was able to hold <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
him down and land some good strikes at times. Menifield is on the back end of his career, but he can wrestle with Azamat, and he can certainly strike with him, but his cardio isn\u2019t great, and he\u2019s very hittable on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I lean Azamat, but I\u2019m not betting on it as I don\u2019t think he\u2019s as good as his 14-0 record indicates. I like this fight to go the distance<\/strong> as both guys are tough and durable and anyone getting a finish would be tough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJoel Alvarez -142 vs Elves Brener +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis could be an amazing fight as both guys are exciting. Brener has huge KO potential as he stunned Kutateladze in the 3rd with a KO, and then KO\u2019d Kruschewsky after that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, in his next fight, Orolbai exposed his lack of takedown defense and ground game, and that\u2019s a big problem against Alvarez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Alvarez likes to strike, but when he gets guys on the ground, his submission and ground game are lethal. If Alvarez is smart, he\u2019ll waste no time getting this to the ground, but he doesn\u2019t really do that as he seems to prefer to strike in the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Alvarez is the rightful favorite, and I think he wins, but the best way to play this fight is to take it not to go the distance or under 2.5. Brener can KO just about anyone, and Alvarez is a finishing machine. This fight won\u2019t see the scorecards<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sharabutdin Magomedov -265 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk +215<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOleksiejczuk is a predictable fighter, and because of that we\u2019ve made a lot of money betting on his fights. He has absolutely no ground game whatsoever, and if he gets taken down, it\u2019s over. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If he can keep it on the feet, he can strike well, and he has a chance. He\u2019s lost 3 out of 4 fights, and sure enough his losses are all by submission on the ground, and his win was when he KO\u2019d Njokuani on the feet when Njokuani gasses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Shara loves his kicks on the feet, and he will be sure to use them to keep Olek at distance, but the smart strategy would be for him to try to get Olek down on the ground because I don\u2019t think Shara\u2019s striking defense is very good. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s hittable and Olek can do some damage if he has an opening. I think Shara is better, and he should win, but in the end, I probably won\u2019t bet this fight<\/strong> as I worry that Shara will try and win a striking match, and that\u2019s asking for trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMichael Chiesa -440 vs Tony Ferguson +390<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis fight is ridiculous. Two guys who are way past their prime, and they have combined for 10 straight losses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not betting on Ferguson who probably has CTE beyond belief at this point, but there\u2019s no world where I\u2019m laying -440 on Chiesa who was basically non-competitive in his last fight. There\u2019s nothing to bet on here<\/strong>, move on to the next fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMackenzie Dern -122 vs Loopy Godinez -104<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m pretty surprised to see Dern as the favorite here as she\u2019s 2-4 in her last 6 fights, and she hasn\u2019t looked good in her last 2 as she got finished by Andrade, and then Lemos really beat her up as the fight went on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Loopy has gone from a wrestler to a striker, so much so that Jandiroba just beat her by outwrestling her. Dern is just so hittable on the feet that I think Loopy does have success with striking, and I don\u2019t see Dern having much success trying to wrestle and control Loopy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Dern is fade materia<\/strong>l these days, I\u2019ll take Loopy to win a decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDeiveson Figueirdo -180 vs Marlon Vera +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m taking this fight to go the distance, I don\u2019t care who wins. Vera starts off slow, and his last 3 fights have gone the distance, and Figuierdo went the distance against Rob Font in his debut at the new weight class. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He got the choke win agaisnt Cody Garbrandt, but Garbrandt isn\u2019t Vera, and Vera won\u2019t let Figueirdo control him like that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
These guys are cerebral fighters, and they know how to stay out of danger, and I don\u2019t see who finishes who in this one. I expect low volume in strikes, and a decision for whoever wins this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Cory Sandhagen +230 vs Umar Nurmagomedov -285<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This line is crazy to me. Umar has beaten Nate Maness, Raoni Barcelos, and Bekzat Almakhan in his last 3, and now he\u2019s almost -300 to Sandhagen? That\u2019s crazy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I guess the thinking is that Umar will take Sandhagen down and control him and dominate the fight on the ground, but Sandhagen just dominated Rob Font with takedowns and ground control so I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a slam dunk that Umar dominates the ground game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I also like Sandhagen\u2019s striking a bit better as it\u2019s more creative, and comes from different angles, and Umar hasn\u2019t fought anyone who strikes like that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The last thing I like is that Sandhagen has fought much better competition. Even though he has a few losses, he\u2019s been in there with Petr Yan, Marlon Vera, and steroided up T.J. Dillashaw. This is by far the toughest test for Nurmagomedov, and to lay -285 is crazy. Sandhagen is the play at this price<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30370"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30370\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30382,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30370\/revisions\/30382"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27252"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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