Muhammed Usman -155 vs Thomas Petersen +130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI don\u2019t know what we did to deserve this fight, but it\u2019s actually pretty bettable if you\u2019re willing to play the over, and watch two big slow guys throw low volume, and hug for 15 minutes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Petersen came off of Contender Series and lost to Jamal Pogues in his UFC debut, which is a horrible look. He looked out of shape, and he didn\u2019t have much power on his strikes, and he got tired and beat up on the face. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Usman isn\u2019t any more exciting, as he\u2019s low volume on the feet, and he looks to take guys down and lay on them til the ref yells at him to keep working. Take this fight to go the distance<\/strong> as the best way to bet it as neither of these guys are finishers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLucie Pudilova -125 vs Luana Carolina +105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m not high on either of these fighter, but the edge goes to Pudilova as I think she\u2019s better on the feet, and her biggest weakness is her takedown defense and ground game, but I don\u2019t think Carolina can exploit it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pudilova got dominated in the first two rounds on the ground against Ailin Perez, but she had the better cardio in round three and won the last round against Perez so I don\u2019t see her getting tired, and that\u2019s a big deal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Carolina has won two in a row, but they\u2019ve been lackluster performances. I don\u2019t think she has much power, and I don\u2019t think she\u2019ll have the power\/cardio advantage the later the fight goes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Pudilova is the right side, and I think the fight goes the distance<\/strong> so Pudilova by decision<\/strong> might be a night play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLoik Radzhabov -142 vs Trey Ogden +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis will probably come down to the length and striking at range for Ogden vs the clinch, wrestling and ground game of Radzhabov, and I give the edge to Radzhabov. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I love his aggression and power, and I think he\u2019s going to be the type of opponent that Ogden hasn\u2019t faced before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ogden will try and use the jab to keep Radzhabov at distance, but Radz has a good gas tank as he showed in his last fight with his round three KO over Al-Selwady. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ogden found a big hole in Hologaugh\u2019s game in his last fight and that was the takedown defense so Ogden got a few takedowns and laid on Holobaugh the whole fight, but there\u2019s no chance he can do that in this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just don\u2019t think Ogden\u2019s point fighting style will hold up, and I think Radz will have the more explosive moments which are important for the judges to see. This is a solid price on Radzhabov<\/strong>, I think it\u2019s worth a play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMiranda Maverick -218 vs Dione Barbosa +180<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think Maverick is the right side here as her physicality in the wrestling and on the ground should be the difference. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
When I look at her three UFC losses, she lost a split decision to Maycee Barber that is regarded as one of the worst decisions in UFC history, she lost to Blanchfield by decision, and she lost to Jasudavicius when she got poked in the eye and was seeing double for most of the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Barbosa won her UFC debut, but there are definitely cracks in her ground game as she controlled Kareckaite for round one, but she couldn\u2019t hold her down the rest of the fight, and Kareckaite is a long, lanky kickboxer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I see Barbosa with an advantage on the feet, but I don\u2019t think she can keep it there. I expect Maverick to get it to the ground<\/strong>, lock in the body triangle and get enough work in to get the decision win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cody Gibson -238 vs Brian Kelleher +195<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI don\u2019t think Cody Gibson is very good, and he had some bad fight IQ moments against Miles Johns in his last fight, but Brian Kelleher is cooked as a UFC fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is clearly a loser leaves the UFC fight as Gibson is 0-2, and Kelleher is 0-3 in his last three fights, and Kelleher has been finished in all those fights, and his only recent wins are against guys who aren\u2019t in the UFC anymore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s gotten slower, and his durability and power seem to be long gone, and I don\u2019t know what he does well anymore. Gibson should be a bit better everywhere, but it\u2019s not fun to lay -238 on a fighter who makes as many mistakes as he does. Gibson is the play<\/strong>, but I probably won\u2019t bet on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJeong Yeong Lee -192 vs Hyder Amil +160<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDifficult fight to handicap as both guys have unknowns, but I think the value play is Amil at +160, but there\u2019s no chance I\u2019m betting my hard earned money on him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has really good striking, and he starts fights really fast, but I don\u2019t think he\u2019s wrestling game is any good. In his last fight he almost finished Garcia early in round one, but Garcia survived and almost submitted Amail late in the first. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lee is a strong guy, but his striking isn\u2019t great so I think Amil can land on him early. The key will be if Lee can survive, and get it to the ground to slow down Amil, and if he can I think he cruise to a decision win<\/strong>. I won\u2019t bet this fight so it\u2019s an easy pass for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCody Durden -125 vs Bruno Silva +105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBruno Silva fights have been a lot of fun in the UFC recently as his last three fights have ended in finishes, and it\u2019s been his explosive strking that has looked really impressive so I expect Durden to use his wrestling to try and nullify the striking, but Silva is no slouch on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
We watched Durden be completely outmatched against Ulanbekov so maybe his wrestling and grappling game isn\u2019t as elite as we thought. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I like the striking advantage Silva will have<\/strong>, and if can keep it on the feet, I expect he\u2019ll find the finish. It\u2019s not something I\u2019ll bet, but the value is on Silva here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBill Algeo -170 vs Doo Ho Choi +145<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChoi is 14-4-1 in his career, unfortunately he\u2019s 0-3-1 in his last four fights as his lack of striking defense has caught up to him, and if he hasn\u2019t fixed it yet, I don\u2019t see how he fixes it now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s a good striker, but he\u2019s wreckless and Algeo should have success with his long jabs. Algeo is no spring chicken as he\u2019s 35, and he\u2019s 5-5 in his last 10 with some of his wins being against bad opponents like Spike Carlyle and Herbert Burns, and he\u2019s coming off a KO loss to Kyle Nelson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I won\u2019t bet on a side on this fight, but it\u2019s probably worth a play to take this not to go the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kaynan Kruschewsky -142 vs Kurt Holobaugh +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKruschewsky got a rude welcome to the UFC as he got KO\u2019d by Elves Brener, the powerhouse, and while Holobaugh doesn\u2019t have Brener type power, Holobaugh\u2019s last eight wins have come by finish, both on the ground and on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Holobaugh has effective striking on the feet, and a ground game that has gotten him multiple submission wins, but in his last fight we saw Trey Ogden take him down and lay on top of him en route to a win so that has to be concerning. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That being said, Kaynan hasn\u2019t fought great competition, and getting knocked out so bad in his UFC debut in February has to be a big red flag. Holobaugh at plus money is a pretty good underdog play<\/strong> as his experience and weapons could easily lead him to a win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSteve Garcia -130 vs Seung Woo Choi +110<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think this is going to be a great scrap as both guys have good striking, but I\u2019m going to go with Garcia who has shown some great finishing power in his career. His last seven wins have come by KO, and I don\u2019t see that kind of power from Choi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Choi is 4-5 in the UFC with only one KO win, and that was against chinny Julian Erosa. Garcia only needs one clean shot to have a huge moment or put the lights out, and I think he can do that here. Garcia is the pick, and the price is fantastic<\/strong>, but Garcia by finish might be worth a play as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJun Yong Park -180 vs Brad Tavares +150<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ve been betting on Park for a while as I feel he\u2019s undervalued, and I was horrified when the judges gave Muniz the decision win over him in the last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a tough one for me because I like betting on Park, but he\u2019s normally been a steal at the number, but he\u2019s the big favorite here so I hate the number. On the other hand, it\u2019s Brad Tavares who\u2019s only recent win is against Chris Weidman while losing to Du Plessis, Bruno Silva and Gregory Rodrigues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tavares showed good takedown defense against Rodrigues, but his durability failed him again as he got knocked out in round three. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Park\u2019s best offense is when he gets his opponent on the ground, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be easy to get Tavares down, and on the feet, Tavares might have the more power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In the end though, I can\u2019t bet on Tavares as he doesn\u2019t throw enough volume<\/strong>, and he\u2019s been knocked out in his last two losses. It\u2019s not a confident play, but Park should win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Amanda Lemos +120 vs Birna Jandiroba -140<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight comes down to whether Lemos can keep this on the feet and win the striking battle or will Jandiroba get the takedowns and control the fight on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In Lemos\u2019s last fight we saw her get taken down and controlled in the first round, but then her power on the feet showed up and she beat up Dern for the rest of the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Zhang was able to take Lemos down multiple times en route to her win over Lemos, but Jandiroba isn\u2019t as strong as Zhang. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lemos is a great underdog play here as it will only take a couple of devastating overhands to stop Jandiroba\u2019s forward pressure, and that will lead to Lemos pouring it on with the punches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jandiroba has been a great bet on as a dog, but this is way too much respect against Lemos. Lemos +120 is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30157"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30158,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30157\/revisions\/30158"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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