Josh Fremd -125 vs Andre Petroski +105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJosh Fremd is a tough one to figure out. He lost to Fluffy and Kopylov, superior opponents, but he beat Pickett and Dumas who are lesser opponents, and although he lost to Tresean Gore, he was winning the fight easily til Gore pulled off a hail mary submission. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The point is, Fremd has a low ceiling, and I think Petroski is a bit better than Fremd\u2019s ceiling, but there\u2019s a big problem with Petroski in this matchup and that\u2019s his cardio, and this fight is in Denver at altitude. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
We\u2019ve seen Petroski really fall apart the longer the fight goes on, and don\u2019t be surprised if it happens again here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s not a confident pick, but I think Fremd gets the win<\/strong> as I can see Petroski winning the first round, and getting tired and Fremd winning rounds two and three with his grappling and ground game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMontel Jackson -148 vs Da\u2019Mon Blackshear +124<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think Blackshear at +124 is the play here as I\u2019m not that impressed with Montel Jackson and his level of competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Blackshear took Mario Bautista to a decision in a fight he took on a week\u2019s notice after getting a twister submission before that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s shown good skills on the ground, and his striking isn\u2019t amazing, but it\u2019s good enough to make opponents have to respect it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Montel Jackson fights once a year, and when he fights it\u2019s normally against a bad opponent. He\u2019s won four in a row, but beating old Rani Yahya, injured Julio Arce, JP BUys and Jesse Strader isn\u2019t impressive in the slightest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jackson should be a bit better on the feet, but I think Blackshear can get some takedowns and win a couple rounds. I like this fight to go the distance as well, but Blackshear at plus money is a good underdog play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLuana Santos -285 vs Mariya Agapova +230<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLife has not been easy for Agapova as she\u2019s had injury and money problems, and while my heart goes out to her, I\u2019m happy to get a chance to fade her again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She\u2019s 1-3 in her last 4 fights, and in her last UFC fight she openly fought while injured so she could get paid to have surgery, and she was brutally submitted by Gillian Robertson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She hadn\u2019t fought since that fight in October of 2022, and she just tried to fight at Karate Combat on May 30, and she lost in 31 seconds in a grappling match due to heel hook. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Santos isn\u2019t anything super special, but she\u2019s 2-0 in the UFC with decent striking and good clinch work, and she\u2019s shown good takedowns and ground control in spots. Santos is limited, but she\u2019s the pick as Agapova is complete fade material right now<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKatima Kline -130 vs Jasmine Jasudavicius +110<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKline will be making her much awaited UFC debut, and although she\u2019s only 6-0 in MMA, she has an extensive grappling career, and she\u2019s more than ready. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her level of competition hasn\u2019t been great, but she\u2019s been very convincing in her wins, and the only concern I have with her is that she only has two finishes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She\u2019s dominated women with bad MMA records, but not getting the finish is a little bit suspect. She has nice striking combinations that set up her takedowns where she does great work on the ground, but Jasudavicius can hold her own on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I also think Jasudavicus is going to be much better at striking than anything Kline has fought so far so I see a close fight, and I can\u2019t really pick a winner here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The step up in competition is going to be tough for Kline, but her cardio, aggression and grappling will keep Jasmine on her toes. I can\u2019t pick a winner here, but I love this fight to go the distance<\/strong> as I don\u2019t see either fighter getting finished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Josh Van -192 vs Charles Johnson +160<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI love this fight to go the distance as a parlay piece. I think Van is the rightful favorite, but Johnson is durable, tough, and savvy enough to stay away from the dangerous striking the Van has. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Seven out of Johnson\u2019s eight UFC fights have gone the distance, and even though Van is coming off a KO win, his two previous UFC fights went the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Van has really solid striking, but Johnson\u2019s movement on the feet should be good enough to stay out of harms way, and in fact Johnson should have his own moments of success on the feet as Van has fought lackluster fighters in his three fights. I like Van to win, but it should be a close fight that I expect to go the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAbdul Razak Alhassan -155 vs Cody Brundage +130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI can\u2019t believe I\u2019m saying this, but all the value is on Brundage here<\/strong>. Alhassan only wins by KO, and it\u2019s against guys who are foolish enough to stand and bang with him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBrundage has a huge advantage on the ground, and if he\u2019s smart he\u2019ll get it there quick and easy. If he\u2019s dumb enough to try and strike with Alhassan, he risks getting KO\u2019d in the first. Both guys are going to struggle with cardio in Denver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Christian Rodriguez -210 vs Julian Erosa +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nErosa has some real durability issues. He lost two fights in a row to Caceres and Padilla by first round knockouts, and even though he beat Ramos in the first round, he got rocked early and was on bottom when Ramos made a dumb mistake and got choked out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It was a solid move from Erosa, but make no mistake Erosa was getting sat down on the feet. C-Rod is coming off a controversial win against Dulgarian, but he\u2019s shown toughness, and a great ground game that has let him upset Raul Rosas Jr, and Isaac Dulgarian so it\u2019s interesting to see how he does as the betting favorite. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Even though C-rod isn\u2019t a great striker, I don\u2019t trust Erosa\u2019s chin at all and it will only be a matter of time before his lack of durability gives out in this fight in some fashion. C-Rod is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGabriel Bonfim -395 vs Ange Loosa +310<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBonfim should win this, but I can\u2019t lay this price, even in a parlay. We saw him lose in his last fight to Nicolas Dalby when Bonfim gassed himself after he couldn\u2019t get the early finish, and the same could happen here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Loosa was getting beat handily by Bryan Battle when he got an eye poke, and used that opportunity to quit in a fight he was going to lose, but Loosa could be a problem for Bonfim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bonfim will go for the early finish, and if he doesn\u2019t get it, he could easily tire again and with Loosa\u2019s wrestling game, I can see a scenario where he wears down Bonfim in route to a win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Loosa\u2019s last four wins have been by decision so he can go the distance easily. This fight is a stay away from a betting purpose<\/strong> for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jean Silva -115 vs Drew Dober -105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a banger as Silva is coming off the quick KO of Jourdain, and Dober is coming off the war he had with Moicano in February. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This should be a striker\u2019s delight as both guys like to stand and bang, and there are couple of curious things about Jean Silva in this fight. For one, this is the hardest-hitting opponent he\u2019s ever faced by far so his durability will get tested. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Second, he fights out of the Fighting Nerds gym, who always have great game plans against their opponents, but with not much time to prepare for Dober, they aren\u2019t going to get a chance to plan for it, or they feel very confident in the matchup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dober has absorbed a lot of punishment in his career, and his weakness is the ground game so I wonder if Silva tries to show off some takedowns and ground control. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I give a slight edge to Dober in this fight as I think the UFC veteran will put some good damage on Silva who might not be ready for a Dober-esque brawl. However, I see no value in betting this fight<\/strong>, I\u2019ll pass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSantiago Ponzinibbio -205 vs Muslim Salikhov +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nA 37 year old vs a 40 year old in the co-main shows you where the UFC is right now trying to book fights, but this is Ponzinibbio all day. He\u2019s only three years younger, but it\u2019s an important three years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Salikov got tired against Dalby two fights ago, and was non-competitive against Randy Brown in February as he got knocked out in the first. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ponz hasn\u2019t fought in over a year, but I think he\u2019ll be the faster, and fresher fighter on the feet, and even though he can get tired as well, Salikhov will be depending on clinch and wrestling to win this fight, but he\u2019s only getting older and slower, and father time is undefeated, and has caught up to him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ponz lost to Holland in his last fight, but he had some good moments on the feet, and he should have plenty of good moments against Salikhov. Ponzinibbio is the pick<\/strong> here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Rose Namajunas -225 v Tracy Cortez +185<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Namajunas has the experience and is better everywhere compared tto Cortez. Namajunas has far better striking and should be so much faster throwing a range of combinations whereas Cortez striking is limited and basic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cortez will be looking for the takedowns but I'm not sure she sets them up well enough or will have the gas tank to consistently take her down and hold her there. Namajunas has by far the more experience and this will be Cortez's first 5 round fight<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNamajunas used to train in Denver so will also know the conditions and altitude better. This is a huge step up for Cortez who hasn't faced anyone even close to Namajunas level<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30080","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30080"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30080\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30082,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30080\/revisions\/30082"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30080"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30080"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30080"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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