Ricky Simon -218 vs Vinicius de Oliviera +180<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOliviera has power for sure, but his fight IQ has a lot to be desired. He\u2019s gotten away with his pure strength and power to get him here, and he\u2019s coming off an insane KO against Benardo Sopaj at the end of the fight, but Ricky Simon is going to put him through hell with his takedowns and chain wrestling. Simon is coming off of 2 straight losses to Yadong Song and Mario Bautista, but Song is a contender and Bautista fought an amazing fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In both losses, Simon looked good, he was just up against better competition. Simon just needs to stay away from the big power shot, work his wrestling and I think Oliviera gets a much needed humbling<\/strong> in this fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMartin Buday -278 vs Andrei Arlovski +225<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis might be it for Arlovski as he\u2019s 45 years old, and he\u2019s lost 3 straight fights to bad competition. He just doesn\u2019t have the power or the cardio to win fights anymore as he has a few minutes of cardio, and then it falls off a cliff and he just tries to not get finished. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
When he throws punches or kicks now, they\u2019re in slow motion and they aren\u2019t doing damage so opponents aren\u2019t scared to walk forward on him. Buday is coming off a bad loss where he got destroyed on the feet against Gaziev, but before that he has won 4 straight UFC fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He isn\u2019t going to have to do much to win this fight, just use the jab on the feet, be patient, and stay active, and he should cruise to a win here. I don\u2019t see a path to victory for Arlovski<\/strong> outside of a random injury to Buday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGillian Robertson -198 vs Michelle Waterson Gomez +164<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGomez is 1-7 in his last 8 fights so it\u2019s going to be hard to make the case for her. She just has terrible striking defense, and although she pushes forward, she pushes forward into punches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She doesn\u2019t have striking that will scare Robertson, and Robertson is coming off a nice ground and pound win against Polyana Viana. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Even though Robertson isn\u2019t a great striker, it should be good enough to piece up Gomez, and I expect Robertson to get this to the ground<\/strong> where her submission\/ground and pound will be good enough to get the win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPayton Talbott -1600 vs Yanis Ghemmouri +900<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNo writeup needed for this one. It\u2019s a layup for Talbott as he\u2019s better everywhere, and probably gets the finish. It\u2019s a showcase fight for Talbott as the UFC is very high on him and they are bringing him along slow. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ghemmouri comes from BRAVE and got smoked in his UFC debut against Gomis who isn\u2019t as good as Talbott. Talbott ITD is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Charles Jourdain -122 vs Jean Silva +102<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s hard to get behind Jean Silva in this one as I think he\u2019s talented, but I think he has a limited UFC ceiling. He went to decision against Kevin Vajellos on Contender Series, which doesn\u2019t impress me too much, and then he knocked out Westin Wilson in his UFC debut who has one of the glassiest chins in UFC history. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Silva has power, but I see Jourdain with the speed advantage, and I think his striking is a bit more complex and unique. Jourdain has lost to Woodson, Wood and Burgos in his last five fights, but all went to decision and all were very close. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jourdain has three wins by submission in his last four wins so if it gets to the ground, he\u2019s live for a choke win. I\u2019ll lean Jourdain for the win<\/strong>, but it\u2019s not bettable for me as Jourdain just seems to come up a bit short in some of these close decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAndre Fili -205 vs Cub Swandon +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m not real high on either guy so this is a pass for me. Swanson is coming off a decision win that he even admitted he didn\u2019t win after the fight (outstruck 95-77 to Dawodu), and Fili is 3-6-1 in his last 10. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Swanson is 40, and his best days are behind him, and I really thought last fight was going to be his retirement fight as his family was in the audience, and he didn\u2019t seem that excited about the fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I question if his heart is really in it, but Fili\u2019s chin is getting weaker and weaker as he\u2019s coming off a first round KO in February. No bet in this fight for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Joe Pyfer -270 vs Marc-Andre Barriault +215<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think this is a pretty nice price on Barriault here. I correctly predicted that Pyfer would lose to Hermansson in his last fight as I thought Pyfer would come out too hard, too earl, and that\u2019s what happened. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I could see Pyfer doing something similar, but I\u2019m guessing he\u2019s going to make adjustments and be more patient. I think it opens the door for Barriault to win some close rounds on the feet as his striking is solid, and cardio is decent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He lost a close split decision to Chris Curtis in his last fight, but if he can damage Pyfer up in the first round, Pyfer could struggle like he did the longer the fight went against Hermansson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In theory, Pyfer should be better with the takedowns, and with more powerful strikes and upside as the odds suggest, but there\u2019s no way I\u2019m laying these odds. It\u2019s Barriault or nothing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIan Garry -130 vs Michael Page +110<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m excited to watch this fight as both guys fight similar styles as they use their length to keep the distance, and they throw some unorthodox kicks that can throw off their opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Page shocked Kevin Holland in his UFC debut with a decision win where he was just one step ahead of Holland on the feet, and I don\u2019t put it ahead of Page to confuse Garry at times. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Garry isn\u2019t going to end his career undefeated, and I think this fight could be the one that trips him up. Page won\u2019t let Garry land those leg kicks that Garry loves, and I think the sporadic movement will let Page keep Garry on the back foot en route to a close decision win.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mayra Bueno Silva -166 vs Macy Chiasson +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth women have holes in their games, but I like Silva better in this matchup, but not enough to bet. Silva should be better in the clinch, and on the ground, but she gets complacent, and she can be outworked like we saw against Pennington in her last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Chiasson\u2019s wins just aren\u2019t impressive as she\u2019s beaten Kianzad, Dumont, Reneau and Young in her last four fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her striking is ok, but not scary, and her grappling is ok, but in this matchups I just can\u2019t figure out who will win, and in fact either one of them could make a big mistake that costs them the fight. Both make big mistakes in their fights, and there\u2019s no reason to bet<\/strong> on this fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRoman Dolidze -142 vs Anthony Smith +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s amazing to think this fight started off as Khalil Rountree v Jamahal Hill, and here we are. Anthony Smith jumped in to fight Carlos Ulberg, and I actually liked that matchup for Smith as Ulberg doesn\u2019t have a ground game to speak of and Smith had a chance to exploit it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, Dolidze will be wise to Smith\u2019s tricks in the takedowns, and in the clinch and on the feet I give Dolidze the advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This won\u2019t be an exciting fight, I expect it to go the distance<\/strong> and with Dolidze pulling out a boring win with low volume, and lots of clinch situations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDiego Lopes -148 vs Brian Ortega +124<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m all aboard the Diego Lopes train, and have been since after the Evloev fight where he lost, but looked great showing off impressive submissions, striking, and cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Since then he\u2019s finished Tucker, Sabatini and Yusuff in the first round, and while this is a step up in competition, I think Lopes is going to have the big advantage on the feet as his striking has looked fantastic, and Ortega doesn\u2019t have the power to scare Lopes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ortega is a grappling and submission machine, but Lopes can hang with Ortega on the ground, and he can win scrambles to get this back on the feet where he\u2019ll have the striking edge. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I was also struck by Ortega\u2019s comment about not having a chance at a title shot because of who\u2019s in front of him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It sounded like he was a bit defeated about what the future holds for him so I look at Lopes and I see a hungry young fighter with a striking edge, and the ability to cancel out the submission edge that Ortega has. I\u2019ll be on Lopes in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 303 Main Event: Alex Pereira -166 vs Jiri Prochazka +140<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jiri is a maniac, and he\u2019s as tough as they come, but I won\u2019t bet against Alex Pereira anytime soon. Pereira knocked out Jiri two fights ago, and even though Jiri won his last fight against Rakic, I\u2019m not sure Jiri is back to his old self after the shoulder surgery over a year ago. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rakic has had a ton of injuries in his past, and he was finiding success against Jiri in the first round with kicks and strikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jiri eventually got the upper hand, and the finish, but his wild style leaves himself open to get hit, and Pereira only needs one opening to put the lights out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pereira had success with leg kicks in their first fight, and they\u2019re so powerful, it knocked Jiri off balance almost every time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pereira was also able to maintain the proper distance to stay away from Jiri\u2019s striking, and when Jiri did finally get inside, Pereira knocked him out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I do think Jiri could try and squeak out a decision win by using his speed, and just jabbing at distance and moving around, similar to what Volkov did to Pavlovich, but that\u2019s not in his DNA. He wants to brawl, and Pereira will oblige. I expect leg kicks early from Pereira leading to another KO<\/strong>. Pereira is the pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29686"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29686\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29689,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29686\/revisions\/29689"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"WagerTalk](\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/images\/email-open-wagertalk.png\")
\n Sign up for WagerTalk news alerts and get free picks, discounts and\n