JJ Aldrich +120 v Veronica Hardy -142<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think Hardy has Aldrich covered here and I expect her to win. Her movement and activity on the feet is a bit better, and she has more physicality and strength in the wrestling and clinch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Aldrich won\u2019t have the volume to make Hardy uncomfortable, and I think she\u2019s going to look a half step behind through most of the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s women\u2019s MMA so who knows what the judges will do in a close fight, so the best bet in this one is to take it to go the distance<\/strong>. Both fighters have good cardio and defense so I don\u2019t see a finish happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKevin Jousset -238 v Jared Gooden +195<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m not high on either of these guys, but I would say Jousset has the higher ceiling. Gooden isn\u2019t crisp on the feet and his wrestling game isn\u2019t very good, and even though he\u2019s coming off an ITD win, it was against Wellington Turman, and it wasn\u2019t great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jousset\u2019s problem is his lack of volume on the feet. It\u2019s like he thinks too much before striking, and I wish he would throw more because he\u2019s good at maintaining range and his accuracy is good, but his lack of volume gives opponents a lot of chances to strike against him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jousset should win this fight<\/strong> as I think he\u2019ll do more damage, but I can\u2019t bet on this fight because the lack of volume concerns me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJake Hadley -175 v Charles Johnson +145<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think this is a great spot to fade Charles Johnson after he got the win against Maksum, and Hadley is coming off a loss in a great fight against Cody Durden. Hadley\u2019s ground game will be the difference here as I think it\u2019s even on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Johnson is great at defending on the ground, but he doesn\u2019t have offense and Hadley\u2019s ground game is creative and effective. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Johnson will need to keep this on the feet in order to win rounds, but Hadley\u2019s takedown game should be good enough for him to control where this fight takes place. I like this fight to go the distance<\/strong> as both guys have great cardio and great defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTrey Waters -170 v Billy Goff +142<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGoff is an exciting fighter with tons of forward pressure and volume, but he\u2019s like a frat guy at a party that goes too hard too early. It\u2019s worked against the weak competition he\u2019s faced so far, but I think it\u2019s going to backfire in this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Waters had a really good UFC debut against Josh Quinlan, and his cardio and jabs that he showed against Quinlan will work great against Goff. Goff will be too wild at first, and if he doesn\u2019t get the finish he\u2019ll tire out and Waters will be able to land strikes from distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight will expose the lack of patience from Goff, and long-term it will be a good thing for him, but Waters should get the win here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tabatha Ricci -130 v Tecia Torres +110<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWe have a fade-the-baby theory here as Tecia Torres gave birth last June, and this is her first fight back. She hasn\u2019t fought in 2 years, and she hasn\u2019t won in 3 years so it\u2019s going to be hard to make the case to bet on her\u2026so I won\u2019t. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ricci has been the more active fighter, and she\u2019s coming off a really tough split-decision loss to Loopy Godinez that could have easily gone her way. Torres had decent cardio before the layoff, but I can\u2019t see it being as good, and the same can be said for her striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Ricci has more volume on the feet in this one and shows more activity, and I\u2019m always going to be betting on the fade-the-baby theory. Ricci is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Esteban Ribovics -185 v Terrance McKinney +154<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s a Terrance McKinney fight so take the under. He\u2019s never been to decision in 21 pro fights so I don\u2019t see why it would change here. As for who will win this fight, I can\u2019t believe Ribovics is this big of a favorite. He\u2019s not that good of a UFC fighter despite his 12-1 record. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He lost his UFC debut, and he beat Kamuela Kirk in his last fight, and Kirk is awful. His striking doesn\u2019t scare anyone, and he\u2019s not great on the ground either. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kirk got him on the ground in round one and kept him there the entire time, and the only reason Ribovics won that fight was because Kirk got tired. McKinney will absolutely get tired if he doesn\u2019t finish Ribovics early, but I think playing McKinney ITD is worth the play<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWe know McKinney has never been to a decision, and with how hittable Ribovics looked on the feet, and how bad he was on the ground I see paths to victory for McKinney. Take him to win, and if he doesn\u2019t get the early finish, and you see him starting to get tired, live bet Ribovics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Viacheslav Borshchev -170 v Chase Hooper +142<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHooper is a live dog here as Borshchev has a massive hole in his game, and that\u2019s the takedown and ground defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Hooper can get it on the ground, it\u2019s Hooper all day, and he probably gets a submission. The move to Lightweight looks like it\u2019s working great for Hooper as he doesn\u2019t have to do the tough weight cut anymore, and it looks like he has more power on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking isn\u2019t nearly as good as Borshchev\u2019s so if this fight takes place on the feet, Borshchev will have the massive advantage and is live for a knockout. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, I like Hooper as the underdog<\/strong>. I think he can survive the striking, and get this fight to the mat where he will dominate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRobelis Despaigne -166 v Waldo Cotes-Acosta +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll just keep fading Despaigne. He\u2019s extremely powerful but very inexperienced, and his fights haven\u2019t lasted long at all, and they\u2019ve been against bad competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If you\u2019re going to bet Despaigne, just wait and take him to win by KO, but I\u2019ll take the plus money on Acosta. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s shown good cardio, and all he has to do is survive the first-round onslaught, and he\u2019ll tire out Despaigne, and maybe even get the finish if Despaigne\u2019s cardio falls off. Take unders in this fight<\/strong> as parlay pieces, but the play is Cortes-Acosta at plus money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sean Woodson -185 v Alex Caceres +154<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll make this short as these are two guys I don\u2019t like betting on so I won\u2019t bet anything on this fight. Both guys are strikers, but they can be low volume, and unpredictable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not a fan of either of them so this is a pass from a betting perspective<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMateusz Rebecki -298 v Diego Ferreira +240<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFerreira hadn\u2019t fought a year and a half, and he knocked out Michael Johnson in his return, but I don\u2019t think this fight is going to go well for him, as it\u2019s a terrible matchup for him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rebecki pushes forward to setup the takedown, and he\u2019s a mauler who doesn\u2019t stop until he gets the takedown. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Once on top, it\u2019s relentless pressure, wresting and ground and pound, and last fight he was able to get the armbar submission against Roberts. Ferreira will need this to stay on the feet to have a chance<\/strong>, but I don\u2019t think he can stop the takedown, and once on the ground it\u2019s Rebecki\u2019s world<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarlos Ulberg -218 v Alonzo Menifield +180<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ve been betting on Ulberg in every fight, and I\u2019ll do it again here. His striking gets better and better each fight, and I don\u2019t think Menifield has the tools to beat him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His last fight against Dustin Jacoby was not very good as he really got beat up on the feet, and he looked slow, and somehow got the win. His wrestling was ineffective, and he\u2019ll have to be better to beat Ulberg. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ulberg\u2019s striking is very precise and powerful, and he\u2019s going to be quicker on the feet, and he\u2019ll do more damage with his striking than Menifield will. I haven\u2019t been wrong on an Ulberg fight, and I\u2019ll be betting on him in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJoaquin Buckley -155 v Nursulton Ruziboev +130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m not going to fade Buckley anytime soon. His move to welterweight has been fantastic as he\u2019s 3-0, and coming off a very impressive win against Luque. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019ll be a bit smaller than Ruziboev, but his athleticism and pressure will more than make up for it. Ruziboev is coming off a bizarre win against Dumas, and I\u2019m not impressed by his striking, and I don\u2019t think Buckley will be either. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ruziboev should have an advantage on the ground, but I don\u2019t know if he can get it there. Buckley is on a tear right now<\/strong>, and I think his power will be too much for Ruziboev to handle. It\u2019s a massive step up in competition for Ruziboev, and I think the -155 price is more than fair<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Derrick Lewis -185 vs Rodrigo Nascimento +140<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not interested in betting this fight as I don\u2019t think anyone is going to be confident in betting on either guy. Derrick Lewis is 1-4 in his last 5 fights<\/strong> with his win being a flying knee 30 seconds into the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHe\u2019s terrible on the ground, and he doesn\u2019t really have the cardio to win a decision at this point in his career. On the other side is Nascimento who barely beat Don-Tale Mayes<\/strong> and won his 2 previous fights by split decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHe doesn\u2019t really have KO power, and his clinch game isn\u2019t great. It\u2019s just a bad fight<\/strong>, and I can\u2019t really see any value in betting on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27748","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27748"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27748\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27751,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27748\/revisions\/27751"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24439"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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