Alessandro Costa -142 v Kevin Borjas +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBorjas got schooled by Josh Van in his UFC debut as he was on his back foot most of the fight, and he had pretty bad defense to Van\u2019s body shots and overall striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking was ok, but he was on defense most of the fight and he couldn\u2019t get anything going. His striking was pretty vanilla, and it\u2019s not good when the best thing you can say about a fighter is they\u2019re tough. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Costa went the distance against Erceg in his last fight, which has aged really well, and he had his moments on the feet, and he had a takedown in round 2 with a bit of control time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Borjas has a lot of improving to do with his defense, and I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s going to be that much better in this fight. I\u2019ll pick Costa to win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIsmael Bonfim -470 v Vinc Pichel +360<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIsmael Bonfim loses to Benoit Saint-Denis so they drop him down to fight 42-year-old Vinc Pichel? <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Quite the stop down and I\u2019ll take Bonfim to get back to his winning ways as he\u2019ll be way more athletic, and faster on the feet, and based on what Pichel showed in his last fight which was over a year ago, Bonfim will have the better cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t see what the path to victory is for Pichel <\/strong>as his striking and wrestling looked below average, and to be blunt\u2026he\u2019s 42 years old, and probably is not ready to compete with Bonfim. Bonfim is a great parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDione Barbosa -218 v Ernesta Kareckaite +180<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKareckaite surprised everyone on Contender Series as she had been low volume and low pressure in previous fights, but her and Carli Judice put on an insane fight with hundreds of punches landed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She got the win, but this fight won\u2019t be on the feet the entire time if Barbosa has her way. Barbosa works takedowns, and will certainly not want to stand and bang with Kareckaite so if she gets takedowns and can hold Kareckaite down, she will roll to a victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not convinced she can do that for all 3 rounds, and Kareckaite\u2019s striking will look way better to judges if the round is close. This is a clear dog or pass fight as Kareckaite can wear down Barbosa<\/strong> on the feet if she can stuff takedowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMauricio Ruffy -166 v Jamie Mullarkey +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFading Contender Series fighters from last season has been very profitable, as they have really looked in over their heads in the UFC so I\u2019d love to fade Ruffy here, but I can\u2019t bet on Jamie Mullarkey. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s been knocked out in 2 out of his last 3 fights, and he is on the verge of being done. Mullarkey doesn\u2019t have power anymore, and Ruffy wasn\u2019t impressive on Contender Series as he was lucky to get the win due to his opponent gassing out in the third round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a terrible fight that will look like it belongs on a regional promotion, don\u2019t bet it<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Drakkar Klose -185 v Joaquim Silva +154<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHard to know what we\u2019re getting from Klose in this fight. He\u2019s 3-0 since the crazy concussion injury, and he didn\u2019t look amazing in his first fight back, but he looked better in his second, and in his last fight he slammed the wrestler Joe Solecki unconscious less than 2 minutes into the fight so we didn\u2019t get to see how he looked deep into the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Silva is a grinder who can finish lesser-quality opponents, but his last 3 losses have all been by KO so his chin isn\u2019t great. If Klose is back to his normal self, I think he should win<\/strong>, and he certainly has the power to KO Silva so he\u2019ll be the pick, but it\u2019s not a very confident pick so I won\u2019t bet it<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jean Silva -142 v William Gomis +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll make this quick as I won\u2019t be betting this fight. Neither guy has impressed me as of now, Gomis is 3-0, but his wins were either not that impressive or against terrible fighters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He keeps the distance on the feet and uses his kicks to keep opponents away, and Silva is aggressive and will try to get through the length to close the distance to do damage inside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t have a strong opinion on who will have the upper hand, and this fight doesn\u2019t interest me so I won\u2019t be betting it<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Myktybek Orolbai -280 v Elves Brener +210<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a fun fight as both guys are finishers, but I think Brener has more power on the feet, but Orolbai has plenty of KO finishes including the brutal one against Hayward Charles two fights ago (go look that one up). <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Orolbai showed his takedown and submission skills against Medic in his UFC debut, but that fight was very short notice and Medic was training for a pure striker, and Orolbai took advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Brener should be ready for the takedowns, and if he keeps it on the feet he\u2019s a live dog for sure. Take this fight to not go the distance<\/strong>, but Brener at +210 is a solid play<\/strong> as he can put anyone to sleep at any time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIasmin Lucindo -360 v Karolina Kowalkiewicz +285<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLucindo showed her ground game in her last fight against Polyanna Viana as she got the submission win in round 2, and that wasn\u2019t what I was expecting in that fight as I thought it would take place on the feet, but I do know that Kowalkiewicz will want this to stay on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her path to victory is to point fight and outland Lucindo as she\u2019s done to her previous few opponents, but I\u2019m not sure it will work. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lucindo has power and strength to disrupt KK\u2019s volume striking, and Lucindo has more paths to finish. Lucindo is very young so she\u2019s been getting better with each fight so I would\u2019ve be shocked to see Lucindo have some new attacks we haven\u2019t seen before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t think Lucindo will stand there and let KK land jab after jab like Belbita did in KK\u2019s last fight. Lucindo\u2019s power, and ground game give her more ways to win, she\u2019s the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Joanderson Brito -166 v Jack Shore +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI actually think this might be a good spot for Jack Shore to get the small upset win here. Brito has finished his last 4 fights, but they aren\u2019t as impressive as that seems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fili has a weak chin, Lucas Alexander isn\u2019t that good, and Westin Wilson is terrible. His last finish against Pearce was crazy as he was getting dominated on the ground, and Pearce slipped up and Brito caught him in a Ninja Choke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It was a great submission, but he was easily losing that fight. Shore needs to weather the early onslaught, and his cardio should be better in rounds 2 and 3, and we saw that play out in his last fight against Amirkhani when Amirkhani won the first round on the ground, but Shore had more energy in round 2 and he got the submission win on the ground late in the round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Shore makes it out of round 1, Brito could tire out and give Shore a great shot at winning, and I think that\u2019s what he\u2019ll do. I\u2019ll take Shore at +140<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCaio Borralho -500 v Paul Craig +380<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI expect Borralho to dominate Craig in this one. Borralho is so tough with his takedowns and ground control, and while his standup isn\u2019t amazing, he doesn\u2019t have to worry about Craig\u2019s striking on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Craig is 1-4 in his last 5 fights, and he looked terrible against Brendan Allen. Craig\u2019s only hope is a flash submission, but Borralho is too skilled and strong to get caught. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Borralho will get Craig on the ground, and control him for long periods of time, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if he gets a submission or a ground and-pound win. Borralho is the easy play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMichel Pereira -440 v Ihor Potieria +340<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPotieria showed a new style in his last fight against Bryczek, as he was more patient and cautious, and he won by decision, something he hasn\u2019t done in his last 8 fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, Brycek didn\u2019t look very good, and he got tired, and Pereira won\u2019t give Potieria that same fight. Pereira will be in his face and will throw plenty of powerful shots so Potieria will have to get in a shootout with him, and I don\u2019t see it going well for Potieria. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Poteria has been knocked out by Ulberg and Bellato, and I think he suffers the same fate here. Take this fight under 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece<\/strong> in case Potieria gets the flash KO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVitor Petrino -520 v Anthony Smith +390<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis line is laughable. Petrino should win, but at -520 you can\u2019t play this. Petrino is so low-volume, and at some point, it\u2019s going to bite him. He landed 27 strikes in a fight that went to decision against Tyson Pedro, and he landed 8 strikes against Bukaskas in a fight that went to the 2nd round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Smith doesn\u2019t look like he has much left in the tank, but this fight is going to be at a slow pace with limited volume, and Smith might be able to make this fight seem way closer than it should be. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s going to have to make sure Petrino doesn\u2019t control him against the cage or get on top of him, but if Smith can keep it standing and Petrino throws low volume, Smith can steal a round, maybe 2. No way
I\u2019m laying this price on Petrino<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJonathan Martinez -135 v Jose Aldo +114<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is the line that has the most confused on this card. Jose Aldo last fought in the UFC in August of 2022 when he lost to Dvalishvili, and he\u2019s been doing boxing matches for Shooto Brasil Boxing since then, and now he\u2019s going to step in and fight Jonathan Martinez who has won 2 of his last 3 fights by leg kick TKO\u2019s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I watched Aldo\u2019s last win against Rob Font, and Font had success striking Aldo despite the unanimous decision win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Aldo was piece up on his face, and if Font can do that to Aldo 3 years ago, I have to believe Martinez will have a field day on the 37 year old Aldo. Aldo is a master at defending leg kicks, but I think Martinez gets the better of him in this matchup<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC 301 Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja -240 vs Steve Erceg +195<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It feels like less than a year ago, I was saying that Erceg had a good skillset and could upset David Dvorak in his UFC debut. Well, it was actually less than a year ago. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Erceg is 3-0 in the UFC, but let\u2019s be serious here. He\u2019s beaten Dvorak, Alessandro Costa, and Matt Schnell, and all 3 of these guys are nowhere near Pantoja\u2019s level. Pantoja\u2019s speed, wrestling and grappling will be way too much for Erceg, and even in the striking I\u2019m not sure Erceg is better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
As long as Pantoja doesn\u2019t underestimate Erceg, he should use his striking to set up the takedown where he will dominate Erceg. I\u2019m not overthinking this one, Pantoja is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27517"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27517\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27519,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27517\/revisions\/27519"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"WagerTalk](\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/images\/email-open-wagertalk.png\")
\n Sign up for WagerTalk news alerts and get free picks, discounts and\n