Maheshate -245 vs Gabriel Benitez +200<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFairly low level fight, but it will probably take place on the feet where both guys have bad striking defense so it wouldn\u2019t surprise me if both guys are beat up and bloodied by the end of the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maheshate is bigger, and probably has more power, but his striking isn\u2019t creative, and he\u2019s a bit slow. Benitez has only beaten bad fighters in the UFC, and he was just beaten up and submitted by Jim Miller, and I really don\u2019t see any upside in him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maheshate will have more power, but I\u2019m not laying -245 on him as he\u2019s coming off a bad KO loss and I don\u2019t know how his chin is going to hold up. It\u2019s dog or pass in this fight<\/strong>, but I\u2019ll pass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIvana Petrovic -455 vs Na Liang +350<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNa Liang is 0-3 in the UFC, and she\u2019s looked bad in all three fights. She doesn\u2019t have power on the feet, and she gets dominated on the ground as well. She\u2019s active, and fast, but her skills just aren\u2019t there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Petrovic isn\u2019t great either as she lost in her UFC debut against Luanna Carolina, and there was a lot of clinching and ground control in that fight, and while Petrovic came out on the losing end, she\u2019s better than Liang, and I think she\u2019s stronger which gives here the advantage in these exchanges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Both have questionable striking, but Petrovic has more power than Liang. Liang just puts herself in bad positions, and while the speed could give Petrovic some problems, in the end, Liang will fade the longer the fight goes and Petrovic should win a sloppy fight by decision<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
James Llontop -140 vs Gabe Green +115<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll gladly take the plus money on Gabe Green here. I\u2019ve had a great read on his fights as I\u2019ve cashed on his last 3 fights, and I think we\u2019re getting plus money on him because he\u2019s lost two in a row, but his losses were to Ian Garry and Bryan Battle, two great fighters. Llontop is coming off a nice win on Contender Series, but I wasn\u2019t all that impressed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has a good striking game, and solid clinch work for regional scenes, but is it good enough against a UFC Veteran who\u2019s tough and has knockout potential? I don\u2019t think so. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fading the Contender Series fighters from the fall has been a really good strategy, and I\u2019ll keep doing it here. Green will be able to land strikes against Llontop, and I think Green is going to have stretches of control time against him en route to a victory. Gabe Green is a great underdog<\/strong> play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKetlen Souza -325 vs Marnic Mann +260<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWe didn\u2019t get to see much of Souza in her UFC debut as Karine Silva took her down and got her in a kneebar early in round 1 so I have to go back to her Invicta fights to see her style. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She\u2019s shown some moments of good striking, and she has good top position and ground and pound, and honestly, it won\u2019t take much to beat Marnic Mann. Mann is small at only 5 feet tall, and she\u2019s constantly searching for the takedown, but she\u2019s not that good at it, and on the feet, her striking is really bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Take this fight to go the distance for sure as I don\u2019t see how either of these women have the finishing ability over the other, and Souza is the pick, but this is priced pretty accurately so Souza by
decision<\/strong> is a solid play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Don\u2019Tale Mayes -162 vs Caio Machado +136<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is the kind of fight we get the week after UFC 300. This is a low-level fight with two big guys, and they will both be out of energy in the second round if it makes it that far. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Machado is early finish or nothing as both his losses as a pro were by decision, and in his UFC debut he got grinded out by Mick Parkin as Parkin was able to take him down and keep him there in round 2, and he landed enough strikes in round 3 to get the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mayes looked terrible in his last fight against Nascimento as he was slow and out of shape, and offered no offense, and that fight had less action than Machado-Parkin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
No chance I\u2019m laying -162 on Mayes with as out of shape as he looked, last fight I\u2019ll take a sprinkle on Machado at plus money<\/strong>, and be warned that if this fight gets out of the first round it will be a snoozefest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Michal Figlak -135 v Austin Hubbard +110<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHubbard\u2019s second run in the UFC got off to a rough start as he was submitted by Kurt Hollobaugh, but I like him to get back on track against Figlak. Figlak got pieced by Fares Ziam, and when he would try and clinch and wrestle Ziam, he didn\u2019t have success which was a terrible look. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hubbard\u2019s striking should be better, and if there are wrestling and clinch situations, I like Hubbard to have a little advantage. It\u2019s not a big play, but Hubbard at plus money is worth a look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Victor Henry -520 v Rani Yahya +440<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nQuick analysis: Rani Yahya is 39, and looked so old and slow in his last fight where he got knocked out early by Montel Jackson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Henry is faster, and better anywhere, just take Henry in a parlay<\/strong>, and you can even take Henry ITD as I don\u2019t think Yahya has much left in the tank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUros Medic -205 v Tim Means +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHere\u2019s yet another fight with two guys who aren\u2019t really impressive. Medic got dominated in his last fight against Orlbai as Orlbai took him down at will and dominated him on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Now, Medic was training for a striker and not a grappler, but he still looked awful. Before that, he beat Semelsberger in a wild striking contest, and he\u2019ll need to keep it on the feet against Means who will absolutely win exchanges on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, Means is 40 years old and Medic will be faster on the feet. Means got the KO win against Fialho in his last fight, but everyone is finishing Fialho these days. I wouldn\u2019t lay -205 on Medic<\/strong>, but he should win so I\u2019ll pass on this fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jhonata Diniz -245 v Austen Lane +200<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLane is coming off a loss he\u2019s probably embarrassed about as he rushed in too fast against Tafa, and he got knocked out cold. Surely, he won\u2019t make the same mistake against Diniz who has KO power, but I don\u2019t think Diniz is that impressive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s big and powerful but doesn\u2019t move that great, and he doesn\u2019t set up his strikes. Lane should move better on the feet, and at +200 I\u2019ll take a sprinkle on him to beat another Contender Series guy from the fall season who I don\u2019t think is that impressive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Neither of these guys has been to a decision in an MMA fight so expect a finish, and I\u2019ll take Lane to finish Diniz<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAriane Lipski -142 v Karine Silva +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a fun fight as Silva is 3-0 in the UFC with all 3 by first-round submission, and Lipski has won 3 in a row, and she\u2019s been improving with each fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lipski should be better on the feet in striking exchanges, and I think Lipski is way better at defending submissions than Silva\u2019s previous opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Lipski extends this fight past the first round where she wears down Silva with the striking, and I can see Silva getting frustrated that she won\u2019t be able to control Lipski like she could with previous opponents. Lipski is a solid play<\/strong> here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRyan Spann -175 v Bogdon Guskov +145<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIf I knew we were getting a motivated and dialed-in Ryan Spann, I would max bet this, but since Spann is so inconsistent I can\u2019t bring myself to bet him. Guskov came from the Russian scene and we easily cashed on Oezdemir beating him as he looked completely outclassed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He knocked out Zac Pauga in his second fight, and that\u2019s pretty much what he is. A power puncher who doesn\u2019t do anything else good. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Spann feels like wrestling and taking Guskov down, that will be available all fight long, but my guess is that Spann will stand and strike. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I would take unders in this fight, maybe even under 1.5 rounds as Guskov has power and very little striking defense, and if Spann is in shape and ready to throw down we\u2019ll get violence. Under 1.5 is the play for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Matheus Nicolau -190 v Alex Perez +160<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Perez has had three fights since 2020, and he lost all of them, but he lost to Figureido, Pantoja, and he just lost a really close one to Mokaev, but that loss doesn\u2019t look great now as it turned out Mokaev was fighting with a staph infection, and was not at 100%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Perez has dealt with a ton of injuries over the years, and he was very open in his interviews before last fight that he\u2019s here to promote his Acai juice business, and that\u2019s what he does full-time now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The injuries and inactivity have derailed his career, and he\u2019s just not at a high level right now. NIcolau got knocked out by Brandon Royval in his last fight, but he had won 6 in a row before that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s patient, and he likes to circle on the outside to set up his shots so Perez will be the one engaging, and that should play into Nicolau\u2019s hands. I think he dictates the pace and controls how the fight goes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Perez will probably be a bit too overzealous and he\u2019ll make some mistakes early that will give Nicolau openings on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The other big selling point is that Perez is taking this on somewhat short notice, and this is a 5-round fight, and Perez was slowing down towards the end of the 3rd round of the Mokaev fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Perez\u2019s best days are behind him<\/strong>, and Nicolau should have the big advantage on the feet, and with cardio so this is a fantastic parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27409"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27409\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27410,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27409\/revisions\/27410"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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