Maryna Moroz -218 v Joanne Wood +180<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIf anyone tells you to lay -200 on Maryna Moroz in this fight, run and report them to the authorities. Moroz is not good, she\u2019s lost two straight, and in her last fight she got knocked down by a solid punch, and she got caught in a guillotine and she tapped with one second left on the clock. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She has started an Onlyfans account which is a giant red flag, and I\u2019m not impressed with what I\u2019ve seen from her the last two fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wood is pretty limited in what she can do offensively, but she has good cardio, and she has good volume which looks great in the judge\u2019s eyes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Betting on Wood in this fight will be nerve-wracking as she can get hit, and she probably doesn\u2019t have the power or submission game to finish, but I\u2019d much rather be sitting on a +180 ticket than a -218 ticket in a fight that should be close to equal odds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I won\u2019t get the window on a side on this one, but taking this fight to go the distance is probably the best bet<\/strong> in this fight as both fighters don\u2019t seem to have finishing potential these days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAssu Almabayev -425 v CJ Vergara +330<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe entire MMA community will be betting on Almabayev this weekend after he finished Ode Osbourne in his UFC debut, and I understand why. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He looked great, but we\u2019ve seen some of these fighters look great in their UFC debut and then struggle in their second fight. My theory is that in their UFC debut, they aren\u2019t overthinking anything, there\u2019s no pressure, and they can just let loose and fight free. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In their second fight, there are expectations and more pressure and some guys melt under the pressure. Almabayev has really good takedowns and solid ground game as we saw against Osbourne, and it\u2019s not a good sign that Vergara was dominated on the ground by Taira, but I suspect Vergara is going to be better than people think in this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Vergara has won his last two fights against bad fighters, but he has to have confidence, and I like the experience he got against Taira, and surely that\u2019s all he\u2019s been working on getting ready for this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Almabayev will be the pick<\/strong>, but the price is too steep for me to bet on. I\u2019ll pass on betting on it, and I might regret it, but I\u2019m a bit of a cautious bettor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRobelis Despaigne -345 v Josh Parisian +240<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHere\u2019s another fight with a huge favorite that everyone will parlay, but Despaigne\u2019s last three fights have lasted a combined 17 seconds, and he only has four fights total. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
So he has no cage time, and his four opponents have a combined one win. He\u2019s fought absolute nobodies, and I can\u2019t believe that someone that has fought this level of competition is a -345 over anyone in the UFC, even Josh Parisian. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Parisian isn\u2019t very good, and this is clearly a setup fight for Despaigne, but I smell a rat with this fight. We don\u2019t know what Despaigne\u2019s cardio will be if he doesn\u2019t flatline Parisian early, and what happens if Parisian actually fights back? <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
None of Despaignes\u2019s opponents have tried any offense, and we don\u2019t know how he\u2019ll react to getting hit or pushed against the fence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Too many questions to lay -345 on a guy with this little experience so I won\u2019t do that. The under 1.5 is -298, I think that\u2019s a much better wager than the Despaigne ML.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Despaigne wins, it will be early, but if Parisian surprises him and it turns out Despaigne has no chin, and no defense, we still cash on an early Parisian upset. Under 1.5 is how I\u2019ll play this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIon Cutelaba -135 v Philipe Lins +114<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPhilipe Lins has quietly put together a three-fight winning streak over Prachnio, OSP and Maxim Grishin, and to be honest he\u2019s looked decent to me. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has good forward pressure, he holds guys against the fence and gets control time and he lands powerful shots, including kicks and punches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s not exciting at times, but it\u2019s been effective for him. Cutelaba got a much-needed win in his last fight as he had lost three straight, but the win was against Tanner Boser who has turned out to be a bust in the UFC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cutelaba\u2019s last four fights have been early finishes so we have a bit of a clash of styles as Lins is more methodical, and Cutelaba is more kill-or-be-killed. I just can\u2019t be too impressed with Cutelaba beating Boser who was fighting down a weight class. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cutelaba is sloppy with his defense, and I can Lins dragging the fight on and tiring out Cutelaba into rounds two and three with his clinch work and kicks. If Lins minds his P\u2019s and Q\u2019s early on and avoids the finish, I think he wins late or by decision. Great value on Lins<\/strong> here at plus money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Michel Pereira -142 v Michal Oleksiejczuk +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFor whatever reason, I\u2019ve had a great read on Olek for a few years. I\u2019ve correctly picked his last five fights so maybe I\u2019m due for regression or I just have him figured out, but I think this is a tough matchup for him and I like Pereira to win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Olek is 5-2 in his last seven fights with his losses being to Dustin Jacoby, a kickboxer, and Caio Borralho, an elite grappler. His wins have been against Bukauskas before he got cut, Sam Alvey, Cody Brundage, Shamil Gamzatov, and Chidi Njokuani. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In his last fight against Njokuani, Olek was getting rocked on the feet until Chidi just gassed out of nowhere and Olek got the finish so I\u2019m seeing Olek beat the guys he should, and losing to the guys he should, and I think he Periera is a bit more explosive with more creative striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Olek is a talented striker, but he has a low ceiling, and when he\u2019s at his best, he just can\u2019t outstrike the best guys in the division. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The gas tank and cardio of Pereira is always a concern, but he\u2019s done a good job managing it recently as he\u2019s won six in a row, and showed the ability to go the distance, and win early with KO power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Watching Olek get hurt by Chidi in the first round was a pretty big red flag, and if Chidi doesn\u2019t fall off a cliff, he gets the win<\/strong>, and that\u2019s what I think happens here with Pereira just being the better striker on the feet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kyler Phillips -238 v Pedro Munhoz +195<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m not sure why Phillips is this big of a favorite as both guys have somewhat similar styles as they both stick and move, they both move quite a bit on the feet, and they are points fighters more than finishers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Munhoz doesn\u2019t have a finish since 2019, and Phillips has only finished bad fighters in the UFC. Phillips is coming off a nice win against Raoni Barcelos where he used his speed and crisp striking to get the decision win, while Munhoz got beat at his own game by Marlon Vera who landed consistent jabs all fight en route to an easy win over Munhoz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Munhoz will try and get his leg kicks working, and Phillips will try and avoid those by moving in and out of the pocket. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Phillips has had cardio concerns, and he does slow down in the third so I expect this to be a pretty close fight late. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Because I think it will be a close fight, the value is definitely on the side of Munhoz. He\u2019s a big underdog because he lost to Vera who is fighting for the title now? Line is way off. Dog or pass on this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mateusz Gamrot -440 v Rafael Dos Anjos +340<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGamrot is a massive favorite, and there\u2019s a real chance that this -440 looks like a bargain after this fight. RDA is a legend who is 39 years old, and he\u2019s fighting one of the best in the UFC who will put on a clinic in this fight in my opinion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gamrot suffered the loss to Dariush in late 2022 and he\u2019s responded by taking out Jalin Turner and Rafael Fiziev, but the win against Turner was a split decision, and he beat Fiziev after Fiziev won round one, and then broke his foot throwing a kick. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His wrestling might not be super exciting at times, but it\u2019s very technical and effective on the right opponent, and I\u2019m not sure RDA is fast enough and athletic enough to thwart the offense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
RDA\u2019s last three wins are to Bryan Barbarena, Moicano and Paul Felder, and he\u2019s lost to Fiziev and Luque, and that fight against Luque was not a great look for RDA as he got tired, and could never mount much offense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gamrot should win this, and taking him to win by decision looks to be a solid prop<\/strong> as Gamrot is not much of a finisher against capable fighters, which RDA is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMaycee Barber -205 v Katlyn Cerminara +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBarber has been getting better and better with the striking and aggression in every fight, and it culminated with her destroying Amanda Ribas last June. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her striking on the feet was great, her takedowns and ground and pound looked great, and it\u2019s really all about can she deal with the length of Cerminara as Cerminara loves the jab and kick to establish distance to piece up her opponent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Barber can leave herself open to get hit with strikes so I think Cerminara can have success, but I think Barber is going to push through it and close the distance, and once she can get inside the long arms and legs, she can do damage to Cerminara. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cerminara lost to Fiorot who is an elite striker, but Barbers power and will to finish will be the difference I think. I wasn't going to make this an official play, but after this quote from Katlyn at media day, I would now be stunned if Katlyn won<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is from Aaron Bronsteter, a reporter at UFC media day:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Katlyn Chookagian at UFC 299 Media Day says that her return to fighting is largely because she did several IVF treatments and unfortunately suffered two miscarriages. She wants to take her mind off of the sadness from what she has endured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
A sad situation for Katlyn for sure, but her last fight was almost a year and a half ago, and it turns out she's been trying to get pregnant through IVF and it hasn't worked resulting in physical and mental trauma. This is a really bad sign for Katlyn as she's clearly struggling with personal matters, and Barber is in a groove and in a much better mental and physical state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Curtis Blaydes -110 v Jailton Almeida -110<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOn paper, this should be a wrestler\u2019s paradise as both guys love wrestling, but we haven\u2019t seen Blaydes wrestle in a match since 2021 against Rozenstruik. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Since then he KO\u2019d Daukus on the feet, then Aspinall got hurt at the beginning of the fight in 2022, and then Pavlovich knocked him out before he could wrestle so while we think Blaydes will want to wrestle, we just haven\u2019t seen it recently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Almeida has yet to lose in the UFC and he\u2019s been great at wresting and controlling guys on the ground, but he hasn\u2019t fought someone with Blaydes\u2019s ability on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
At even odds, we have to decide if we believe that Almeida\u2019s wrestling and ground game is truly great or has he just been better than average to below-average guys in the division. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I lean more towards that Almeida is the real deal and he\u2019s ready to beat Blaydes and get closer to a title shot. Blaydes hasn\u2019t looked amazing since 2020 in my opinion, and I know the Aspinall injury was a fluke, but knocking out Daukus isn\u2019t impressive, and neither was laying on top of Rozenstruik for three rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t think his striking will be good enough to take out Almeida, and I believe that Almeida has more weapons on the ground and he\u2019ll eventually get the back of Blaydes or end up on top to unleash ground and pound or submissions. I love the price on this, I\u2019ll take Almeida<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPetr Yan -112 v Song Yadong -108<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a fun fight with lots of energy. Both guys move around a lot, and it\u2019s crazy to think that Yan has lost three in a row. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
All by decision, two by split decision. Yadong doesn\u2019t fight like any of those guys as Yadong likes to strike on the feet with volume, and I think that plays into Yan\u2019s hands. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Yadong is coming off of two pretty nice wins against Ricky Simon and Chris Gutierrez, and I thought that his performance against Simon was his best one as he weathered the chain wrestling well, and eventually got the late finish in round five. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just think he\u2019s running into Yan at a bad time. Yan\u2019s pressure is great, and he\u2019s better than everyone that Yadong has faced except for Sandhagen, and Sandhagen really pieced up Yadong. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Yan gets a lot of control time and strikes landed in close and he won\u2019t let Yadong strike from the outside with his power, and although I think Yadong will be Champion someday, it\u2019s just not his time. I\u2019ll lean to Yan<\/strong> to take this win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJack Dela Maddalena -162 v Gilbert Burns +136<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI guess I can understand why Maddalena is the favorite here, but I don\u2019t necessarily agree with it. Burns just lost to Belal Muhammad where Muhammad won the striking battle and was able to not allow Burns to get the takedowns and work his ground game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m just not sold that Maddalena can stop all the takedowns. Maddalena\u2019s striking on the feet should be much better than Burns, and we watched Maddalena get taken down a couple of fights ago and held down by Bassil Hafez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maddalena then beat Kevin Holland, but Holland didn\u2019t implement aggressive takedowns, and I don\u2019t think Burns will let Maddalena stand there and win a boxing match. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I could look foolish with this pick, but I\u2019ll pick Gilbert Burns to pull the upset<\/strong> with takedowns and a close decision win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKevin Holland -135 v Michael Page +115<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll make this short and sweet. Don\u2019t bet on this fight. Holland should win, but Holland\u2019s fights can be a circus, and this has all the makings of a bizarre fight with trash talk, taunting, and craziness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t think Page is that great, and if both were fighting at their best, Holland should win, but we don\u2019t always get a focused Holland. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Holland has more weapons, and a much more well-rounded game, but I would advise everyone to just sit back and watch this fight. Don\u2019t bet your money on it<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBenoit Saint-Denis -205 v Dustin Poirier +170\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe hype train is full-steam ahead on Saint-Denis and I\u2019m really surprised it\u2019s stayed around -200. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Poirier has fought all the best guys in this division, and he\u2019s had success at the highest level, but he\u2019s 35 years old, and he\u2019s been in some wars recently culminating in a vicious head kick loss to Gaethje last July, and I wonder if all the damage will start taking its toll. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
BSD is younger and has less wear and tear on his body, and he\u2019s been getting better with each fight, and his size and finishing ability has been nothing short of impressive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s demolished Bonfim, Moises and Frevola in his last three, and he\u2019ll be hunting for the takedown of Poirier to work his ground and pound. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I would look at taking this fight under 2.5 rounds. BSD will be looking for the early finish, and if he doesn\u2019t get it, I could see him getting tired and DP landing big shots that takes him out. This fight will be violent, i don\u2019t see it making into the third round<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 299 Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs Marlon Vera<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just can\u2019t lay -278 against Marlon Vera in a five-round fight here. O\u2019Malley knocked out Sterling in his last fight, but Sterling had some questionable wins, and was due for a loss. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
O\u2019Malley won a very close decision against Yan, and if he loses that fight he doesn\u2019t even get the fight against Sterling. He\u2019s long and rangy and has good power, but Vera has one loss in his last six fights, and that was a split decision loss to Sandhagen, no shame in that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Vera is going to use his leg kicks early and often to throw off O\u2019Malley and to try and take away the power of O\u2019Malley\u2019s strikes, and if he has success I think he points his way to victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
O\u2019Malley is going to need to land the big shots to take out Vera, and I think Vera is savvy enough to stay away. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s a great number on Vera here,<\/strong> I think it\u2019s worth a play as I believe O\u2019Malley can\u2019t win three rounds out of a five-round fight here<\/strong>, and he\u2019ll be dependent on the KO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26507"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26507\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26508,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26507\/revisions\/26508"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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