Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady -155 v Loik Radzhabov +130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRadzhabov has looked completely different in his last two fights in the UFC. In his first UFC fight he took Ribovics down time and time again, and while he had some decent moments on the feet, Ribovics was able to land strikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In his next fight, he couldn\u2019t get Mateusz Rebecki down and Rebecki demolished him on the feet with leg kicks, and punches and eventually he got the KO win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
So we know Radzhabov has bad strike defense and good takedown offense. I remember Al-Selwady well as I picked him to pull the upset on Contender Series against highly touted prospect George Hardwick, and he fought well with the striking and pressure en route to a solid decision win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The question is, will his striking be good enough to exploit the bad defense of Radzhabov? I think it will be. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His cardio looked good, and he just has to stuff a couple of takedowns and he should be able to soften up Radzhabov on the feet. It should be a close fight, but I don\u2019t like what I\u2019ve seen from Radzhabov, I like Selwady by decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Vinicius Oliviera -170 v Yanis Ghemmouri +142<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGhemmouri doesn\u2019t strike me as a guy with a long career in the UFC as he lost his only UFC fight to Gomis by taking a brutal body kick in round three that put him down, but he had lost the first two rounds as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s a rangy kickboxer, but he doesn\u2019t have much power, and his defense isn\u2019t great. Oliviera is a powerful striker with solid leg kicks and strikes, and he can be a bit wild, but when he lands clean it can put your lights out as we saw him brutally KO his opponent on Contender Series. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, he leaves himself wide open for counters. I agree with him being the favorite here as Ghemmouri doesn\u2019t appear to have the power to scare Oliviera, and while I think Ghemmouri can touch him, I think eventually Oliviera lands a power shot to get the KO or wobble Ghemmouri to win the round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ghemmouri getting knocked out by Gomis isn\u2019t a great look as Gomis isn\u2019t a huge power striker so this fight spells trouble for Ghemmouri<\/strong> in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJavid Basharat -700 v Aiemann Zahabi +360<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nZahabi is coming off the quick KO win against Aoriqileng last June, and it was very well set up, but it was one minute into the fight so we didn\u2019t get to see his skills over a long period of time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He only fights once a year, and in 2022 beat Ricky Turcios in a pretty boring fight that took place completely on the feet, and we really haven\u2019t seen his ground game and I\u2019m pretty sure Basharat will make sure to test that out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Basharat is on a tear as he\u2019s 14-0 as a professional, and 3-0 in the UFC with all wins coming by decision. He can piece up opponents on the feet, and he can take guys down and control them on the ground, and I suspect he\u2019ll do the same here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I have no clue what to expect from Zahabi\u2019s ground game and takedown defense, but Zahabi is nothing special on the feet so I see Basharat figuring him out pretty quickly and dominating the fight like he has in his previous UFC fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Using Basharat as a parlay piece<\/strong> is a great spot, or wait til props come out and play him by decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLudoveit Klein -800 v AJ Cunningham +550<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKlein gets a short notice replacement in AJ Cunningham, and normally I get a bit nervous betting against these short notice guys who have nothing to lose, but Klein should roll Cunningham. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cunningham is coming off Contender Series where he got knocked out by Steven Nguyen, and I don\u2019t think Nguyen is that good. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Klein demolished Bahamondes in his last fight, and looked fantastic, and if he\u2019s 75% of the fighter he was in that fight he should run through Cunningham. Wait til props come out and take Klein inside the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Steve Erceg -305 v Matt Schnell +245<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s a pretty steep line on Erceg who is 2-0 in the UFC, but he has looked great against David Dvorak and Alessandro Costa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking has been crisp, and he has good takedown and ground game, and cardio is no issue, but this is an interesting matchup against Schnell. Schnell is 1-2 in his last three, but could easily be 0-3 as he got the win in the insane Sumudaerji fight, but his losses are to Matheus Nicolau and Brandon Royval so on paper this looks like a big step down in competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, I can also make the case that Schnell is on a rapid decline as his last three losses have been by finish, and he absorbed a ton of damage against Sumaderji. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Watching Schnell fight Nicolau, he just looked tentative, and he got knocked down on a big shot in the first round before getting finished in the second so I don\u2019t trust his chin. I like Erceg to win, but I\u2019m not laying -305. No bets on this fight as the price has taken me out of the market<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Chris Leroy Duncan -305 v Claudio Ribeiro +245<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m not high on Ribeiro at all as he\u2019s powerful, but he\u2019s also flat-footed with bad cardio. He beat Joseph Holmes in the UFC, but Holmes is awful and Ribeiro has been finished in his other two fights so any decent UFC fighter he\u2019s faced, he\u2019s lost convincingly to. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Duncan suffered his first loss of his career against Petrosyan, but responded well by getting the finish over Denis Tiululin where he clinched Tiululin against the fence the entire first round, and then knocked him out with his solid striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has unorthodox striking, and comes from strange angles, and it can look odd at times, but it seems to work for him, and I think it will work here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Based on what I\u2019ve seen from Ribeiro\u2019s cardio, if he doesn\u2019t finish Duncan in the first round, he\u2019s in big trouble and probably gets finished again. Duncan inside the distance<\/strong> is the play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Eryk Anders -310 v Jamie Pickett +250<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPotentially, a loser leaves UFC match, but if Pickett loses he\u2019s definitely done as he\u2019s lost four straight fights. Anders hasn\u2019t been much better as his last two recent wins are against guys who aren\u2019t in the UFC anymore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Anders is a striker who has had real cardio problems in the past, but I\u2019m not sure Pickett is the guy to test the cardio. Anders performed well in his last fight against Barriault as he managed his cardio well, but just didn\u2019t have the volume or power to win the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He doesn\u2019t have takedown offense and his striking game just isn\u2019t good enough against good UFC competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pickett has the same cardio issues as Anders, and the same low-volume issues so I think this fight is close, and we saw in Pickett\u2019s last lost to Fremd that he survived Fremd\u2019s ground game, and he actually got a couple of takedowns himself, and I wonder if he might try for takedowns against Anders. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If he does try takedowns, it will get both guys tired for sure so I think this fight is way closer than the lines. It\u2019s a dog or pass fight, it\u2019s Pickett or nothing, but I do think taking an over is smart. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pickett has no wins by finish in the UFC<\/strong>, and the only recent finish that Anders has is knocking out Chris Daukus who everyone did in the UFC. Once these guys get tired, which will be sooner rather than later, neither will have the energy for a finish<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Muhammad Mokaev -270 v Alex Perez +220<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s pretty difficult to know what we\u2019re getting from Alex Perez. He fought in 2022 against Pantoja and got finished early in round one, and before that he fought Figueiredo in 2020 and got finished early in round one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Before that, he beat Jussier Forminga, Jordan Espinosa, and Mark De La Rosa, but none of those guys are in the UFC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
So he lost to two elite fighters and beat the way less competition. Mokaev is a nice in-between talent who is 10-0, but it\u2019s not been the most confident run of wins despite the three straight finishes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It took til round three to finish Malcolm Gordon, he finished short-notice debutant Jafel Filho, and almost lost in an armbar, and he finished Tim Elliott who took the fight on short notice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I thought the fight against Elliott was his best fight as he seemed more focused and more polished, and with his last three wins coming by submission and Perez\u2019s last two losses being by submission, the obvious pick is Mokaev by submission. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m a cautious bettor so I will personally lay off betting on this fight as I don\u2019t know what we\u2019re going to get from Alex Perez<\/strong>. Fighting Pantoja and Figueirdo is a lot different than Mokaev so I think this could be a really close, competitive fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Umar Nurmagomedov -1050 v Bekzat Almakhan +675<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt says a lot that a fighter that is 17-1 is the biggest underdog on the card. Umar is a title contender in the UFC, and Almakhan is coming from the Octagon and UAE promotions fighting competition no where near what Umar is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Almakhan is a decnet fighter with plenty of finishes, but he isn\u2019t as powerful or as polished as Nurmagmedov. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The way to play this is to take the fight to not go the distance at -150. Umar has three finishes in four UFC fights, and if he wants to move closer to a title fight he can\u2019t be going to decision against this guy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s shown submission wins, and in his last fight he showed power as he knocked out Raoni Barcelos. If Almakhan is going to pull the upset, it\u2019s going to have to be by a finish and -150 is a really good price<\/strong> considering how big of a favorite Nurmagomedov is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Jairzinho Rozenstruik +125 vs Shamil Gaziev -150<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
What a crazy situation we have where Gaziev made his UFC debut a few months ago, gets the KO win and is now in a main event. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I bet on Gaziev heavy on Contender Series, and he delivered, but I was against him last fight and he proved me wrong, big time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking was fantastic as he damaged the eye of Buday early in the first round, and Buday couldn\u2019t recover, and we didn\u2019t even see the wrestling and ground game of Gaziev in that fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gaziev is 34, which is pretty old for a guy just getting into the UFC, but his first amateur fight was in 2018, and his first pro fight was in 2020 so it\u2019s not like he\u2019s absorbed a bunch of wear and tear for 15 years like most guys in their mid 30s. In face, Rozenstruik is one year older than Gaziev, but has been doing kickboxing and MMA since 2011. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s crazy that Gaziev is a favorite, and it\u2019s even more crazy that I like him to win here in his second UFC fight, which is in a main event. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ve had a good read on Rozenstruik over the years, and he\u2019s great when he should beat someone, and terrible when he\u2019s the underdog. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His recent wins are to Chris Daukus who is 0-4 in his last 4, Augusto Sakai who was on an 0-4 run, and Junior Dos Santos who was on an 0-5 run. Mixed in there are early finishes to Almeida and Volkov, and a decision loss against Blaydes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t think Rozenstruik is going to be able to spark Gaziev early in the fight, and Gaziev has a a good enough ground game and striking game to slow down Rozenstruik early, and the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Gaziev. I\u2019ll trust my read on Rozenstruik, and I\u2019ll fade him here. Gaziev is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26359"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26359\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26394,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26359\/revisions\/26394"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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