Daniel Marcos -230 v Aori Qiling +190<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDaniel Marcos isn\u2019t a high volume fighter, but his strikes have good power to them and they\u2019re accurate. He didn\u2019t have too many strikes landed in his win against Davey Grant, but Grant was bloodied up and damaged as Marcos got the win in his last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think this fight should look similar as Aori isn\u2019t a great fighter and his best days are behind him. He\u2019s low volume as well, and doesn\u2019t move that great, and he struggled against Johnny Munoz in his last fight which is a bad sign. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He doesn\u2019t have great ground game so I expect this to be a fight mostly on the feet where Marcos will land the better strikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I do worry about Marcos being undefeated as he won\u2019t go his whole career undefeated, and a loss is certainly coming, I just don\u2019t thing Aori is going to be the one to take his 0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Zac Pauga -135 v Bogdon Guskov +114<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOne of my most confident wagers I\u2019ve ever met was for Oezdemir to beat Guskov in his debut, and it was an easy cash as Guskov did not look like a UFC caliber fighter, especially in the takedown and ground defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Guskov is 14-3, but his matches have been in shady Russian leagues with little footage to see, and opponents that are pretty bad and he was exposed in his UFC debut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not high on Zac Pauga, and this is an opponent that Guskov\u2019s style matches as both are strikers, but I can\u2019t bet on Guskov in a UFC fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pauga is 1-2 in the UFC, but he\u2019s better than Guskov so he should win by closing the distance, clinching and testing out the takedown defense of Guskov. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Pauga can\u2019t get his 2nd UFC win here, his future doesn\u2019t look bright in the company so I think -135 is a pretty good price on Pauga to beat Guskov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jeremiah Wells -175 v Max Griffin +145<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think the value is in the dog here as both guys are coming off of losses. Griffin lost to the up and coming Michael Morales as a big underdog, but he performed well doing some damage to Morales, and he had success closing the distance and controlling Morales. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wells is coming off a loss where he dominated by taking Harris down, and controlling the entire fight, but then got caught in a random choke late in the fight, and it was concerning for Wells that he looked tired in round three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Griffin needs to not get taken down early, and if he can keep it standing I think he can make the first couple rounds close and if Wells starts to fade like he did against Harris, Griffin can squeeze out a close victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This probably won\u2019t be a sexy fight to watch as both guys like to fight in close quarters with lots of clinching and holding, but there\u2019s a lot of value on Griffin in this spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Devin Clark -198 v Marcin Prachnio +164<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI love good betting opportunities against Marcin Prachnio, and this could be another good one. I think he\u2019s slow on the feet, doesn\u2019t have good striking, and has bad cardio and bad takedown defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s 3-2 in his last five fights, which is a miracle as he beat William Knight when Knight froze in the fight and refused to strike and got booted from the UFC after that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He beat Ike Villaneuva who was way past his prime, and his win against Khalil Rountree is by far his best win, but make no mistake\u2026he\u2019s not good. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He was dominated in his last fight and eventually got subbed in the third. Devin Clark is coming off a loss to Nzechukwu where he got submitted in round three, but he had his moments in the clinch and striking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s not elite, but he\u2019s better than Prachnio. He has better cardio for sure, and that will be the biggest difference here as Clark should wear down Prachnio sooner rather than later en route to victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hyder Amil -198 v Fernie Garcia +164<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGarcia desparately needs a win as he\u2019s dropped the first three fights in his UFC career, and he just hasn\u2019t shown any signs of upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He was just dominated by Nakamura with wrestling and ground game, and that\u2019s what Amil likes to do so I don\u2019t see this as a good matchup for Garcia. In his last fight he really looked like he had lost all his confidence, and was constantly backing up or getting man handled in the wrestling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
My worry about betting on Amil is that we\u2019ve seen these guys come in from Contender Series and look underwhelming in their UFC debut so the way I\u2019ll play this is to take this fight to go the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
All of Garcia\u2019s fights have gone the distance as he has good defense and good cardio, and Amil barely won his Contender Series by decision. Neither of these guys are finishers, I like to go the distance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lomo Lookboonmee -270 v Bruna Brasil +220<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis isn\u2019t a high level of MMA we will see so I can\u2019t get to the window on either of these women. Bruna Brasil is pretty low volume on the feet and is coming off a win against Shauna Bannon, but Bannon is terrible and Brasil didn\u2019t exactly dominate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Beofre Bannon, she faced Denise Gomes and got knocked out in round two, but she did good in the first round pushing Gomes against the fence and landing good shots inside the clinch. She has some decent skills, but just doesn\u2019t have much upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lookboonmee is coming off a nice submission win against Elise Reed where she didn\u2019t have a great first round, but she came out in round tow, immediately took Reed down and grabbed the nice submission win. No chance I\u2019m laying -270 on Lookboonmee, but I don\u2019t trust Brasil so this is a pass for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bolaji Oki -310 v Damir Hadzovic +250<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOki is coming off an impressive win on Contender Series and he\u2019s a rightful favorite here. He has really good striking with his hands and legs and showed he has KO power on CS. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I thought he looked nervous at first, but he settled in and once he landed a couple big shots he opened up and finished the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He faces Hadzovic who is 37, and is just not very good. He got dominated in his last fight which was 19 months ago, and before that he won against a terrible Yancy Medeiros by decision, but he struggled way more than he should have. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He doesn\u2019t have good movement these days, his strikes aren\u2019t scaring anyone and he doesn\u2019t have a ground game that Oki should be scarred of. I worry laying big juice on the sexy Contender Series favorite, but this a great matchup for Oki as he\u2019s much more athletic and powerful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Carlos Prates -258 v Trevin Giles +210<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWe have another Contender Series winner here, and Prates was the most impressive fighter to come from Contender Series in my opinion last season, and on paper he should roll here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Giles has fought some interesting guys recently as he lost to Gabriel Bonfim, and before that he lost a close fight to Preston Parsons who is a wrestler\/ grappler and before that he won a decision against Cosce who is awful. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Before that he lost to Michael Morales and Dricus Du Plessis, and somehow beat Roman Dolidze who was just in a main event. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Prates in a fantastic striker who is technically sound and he has tons of muay thai and kickboxing fights on his resume and he\u2019s made the transition to MMA nicely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The way for Giles to win this is to try and clinch up Prates, take him down and hopefully tire him out and squeak out some close rounds because on the feet it\u2019s Prates all day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just don\u2019t think Giles will be able to do that with extended success so as nervous as I get taking heavy favorites from Contender Series, I like Prates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The other sneaky thinig I like about Prates is that he\u2019s training with the Fighting Nerds who have a great track record of coming with winning strategies for fighters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rodolfo Vieira -120 v Armen Petrosyan +100<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI love Petrosyan in this matchup. Vieira has been open that he doesn\u2019t love being violent, but fighting is how he makes money so he struggles with the idea of hitting guys. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s a bummer if you\u2019re a UFC fighter. He has two wins in his last three fights, but the competition wasn\u2019t great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He beat Cody Brundage, but Brundage knocked him down hard and almost got the finish until Brundage showed his lack of fight IQ, couldn\u2019t finish, then gassed and got finished himself. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Vieira also finished Dustin Stoltzfus who isn\u2019t great either, but in a fight Vieira lost to Chris Curtis, Curtis stuffed all of Vieira\u2019s takedowns, won a striking battle and seems to have better cardio despite the fact Curtis took the fight on short notice, and had fought pretty soon before that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Petrosyan is a shifty striker who is 3-1 in the UFC with his loss being to Caio Borralho who took him down and held him on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think that\u2019s what people might expect in this fight, but Borralho is elite and Petrosyan will surely be ready for the attempted takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
On the feet Petrosyan will have better striking and better cardio, and I think he wears Vieira down en route to a close decision win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Michael Johnson -135 v Darrois Flowers +114<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI wasn\u2019t very high on Flowers as he made his debut against Jake Matthews because he won on Contender Series when his opponent hurt his shoulder, and I wasn\u2019t impressed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He started off fast, then slowed down a bit, tried some sneaky move where he pretended to be hurt to trick his opponent, then he claimed he got hit in the groin when he didn\u2019t, and milked the recovery time because he was tired. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jake Matthews took him down in the second, and eventually got the finish. Michael Johnson is getting up there in age, and is coming off a KO loss to Diego Ferreira, and while his best days are behind him he\u2019s a veteran who is better technically than Flowers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Flowers would have to have made some big improvements for me to pick him, and while it\u2019s possible I don\u2019t want to bet on him and find out he\u2019s the same fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t trust the aging Johnson either so it\u2019s a pass for me, but it\u2019s Johnson or nothing for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gregory Rodrigues -245 v Brad Tavares +200<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSomehow they found someone Brad Tavares could beat in his last fight, and that was the corpse of Chris Weidman. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It was a terrible fight and Tavares looked bad as he had low volume, he was tentative, and that\u2019s three wins in his last 7 fights, and all the wins have been against bad competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gregory Rodrigues had the insane loss against Brunno Ferreira when he got knocked out by a quick counter jab, but he rebounded by getting the dominant win against Tiuliulin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s a hefty price to lay on Rodrigues, but there\u2019s no chance I\u2019m betting Tavares. A flash KO is possible if Rodrigues\u2019s chin is soft, but Tavares has one KO win in his last 20 fights so I don\u2019t see it. Rodrigues as a parlay piece is probably the only thing to wager on this fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Robert Bryczek -198 v Ihor Potieria +164<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPotieria has no cardio, is coming off of two losses by knockouts and is taking this fight on short notice down a weight division against a guy making his UFC debut who has 5 straight first round knockout wins. I\u2019ll cut to the chase. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Take unders in this fight. One of these guys is going to sleep as neither of these guys has cardio, and they both swing for the fences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dan Ige -166 v Andre Fili +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTough fight to predict as both guys have good striking that can come from a lot of different angles, especially the kicks of Fili. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fili is coming off an impressive KO win against Almeida, and before that he lost to Nathaniel Wood, no shame in that, but Fili had Wood rocked in round one, he just couldn\u2019t hang on against the relentless Wood. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ige is coming off a loss where Bryce Mitchell held him down on the ground, and didn\u2019t do damage yet the judges somehow decided that was good enough for the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I thought Ige won with damage, and that would have made three wins in a row for him, but Fili can\u2019t do what Mitchell did so I expect a fight on the feet mostly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ll lean Ige to win, but I won\u2019t lay the price as this could be a very close fight at the end if there isn\u2019t a finish. No play in this fight for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Jack Hermansson +210 vs Joe Pyfer -260<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pyfer will be the popular pick, and I get it. He was the fan favorite (and Dana White favorite) on his season of Contender Series, and he\u2019s come into the UFC and gone 3-0, but let\u2019s be honest\u2026the level of competition has been bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Alen Amedovski, Gerald Meerschaert and Abdul Razak Alhassan were his victims, and even though Hermansson is getting a bit up there in age, he\u2019s a massive step up in competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s coming off a loss to Roman Dolidze where I though Hermansson was winning until Dolidze pulled off an insane calf slicer on the ground after Hermansson took Dolidze down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hermansson\u2019s last two losses are to Roman Dolidze who was just in a main event, and to Sean Strickland who was Champion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I like Hermansson\u2019s experience and kickboxing in this matchup, and we saw his movement against Chris Curtis on the feet frustrate Curtis which got Hermansson the win in a striking match on the feet. I\u2019ll take the underdog here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
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