Nick Borrman<\/a>: The PGA Tour is staying in Hawaii again this week, but Waialae CC is a much different track than Kapalua. Waialae is flat with a total course elevation change of just 10 feet. Even though the course is along the Hawaiian coast, there is actual minimal water that comes into play. 83 bunkers on the course offer up the most challenge but like Kapalua, the main defense will always be the wind. If the wind is up, scores are up, but when the wind is not existent, scores will be low. The wind is forecasted to be light all week. Also worth nothing, but probably irrelevant from a betting standpoint, is that the front nine and back nines are flipped for the tournament, allowing for the 550 yard par-5 dogleg left to serve as the finishing hole.<\/p>\nThe Sony Open Field<\/h2>\n
While last week saw the 2nd smallest field of the year, behind only the Tour Championship, this week we see a standard field of 144 with the cut down to the lowest 65 (and ties) for the weekend. Even though we have more players this week, the field is much weaker in terms of World Golf Rankings with only seven of the Top-25 players in the world teeing it up. Last week\u2019s winner, Cameron Smith, is the headliner along with Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, Abraham Ancer, Jason Kokrak, Billy Horschel and The Tour\u2019s ironman, Sungjae Im. 23 players from last week\u2019s field of 38 are staying and playing this week at the Sony Open.<\/p>\n
Sony Open Betting Trends<\/h2>\n
Seven of the last eight winners at the Sony Open played the week before at Kapalua. In some wild irony, the exception to that is none other than last week\u2019s winner Cameron Smith. Going back even further, Since the Tournament of Champions moved to Kapalua in 1999, 16 of the 23 winners of the Sony Open also played Kapalua the week prior. Knowing that, pay close attention to the 23 of 38 players from Kapalua last week that are teeing it up again at Waialae.<\/p>\n
Also, first-timers are usually worth discussing every week as unlikely winners and this week is no exception. Since Waialae CC joined the PGA Tour tournament schedule back in 1965, only one first-timer has earned victory and that was Russell Henley in 2013.<\/p>\n
Nick’s Players to Watch<\/h3>\n
Charles Howell III +5000 | +450 Top-10<\/strong>: Let\u2019s start with the longest odds first. Howell has never won here, but he is the tournament\u2019s all-time earnings leader thanks to a perfect 20 for 20 record in cuts made that includes finishing in the Top-10 in half of his starts. Howell has always been a guy that plays well at certain venues every single year then you don\u2019t hear much from him for several weeks or months. That means he\u2019s not a guy that you really worry too much about his results or statistics over the last three or six months but I\u2019ll mention it anyway as it\u2019s still respectable. Howell ranks 18th in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months at +0.73. Howell did not tee it up last week at Kapalua, however, perhaps giving one reason to leave him off your outright list this week and instead, look to play him another way.<\/p>\nMarc Leishman +1600 | +190 Top-10<\/strong>:\u00a0 Leishman\u2019s track record doesn\u2019t go back as long as Howell\u2019s but it\u2019s still perfect nonetheless. He is 12 for 12 in cuts made at Waialae with seven Top 20s including four Top 10s. Leishman ranks slightly higher than Howell this week in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, sitting 12th in this field at +0.91. Unlike Howell, Leishman did play last week at Kapalua and finished with a solid T-10.<\/p>\nWebb Simpson +1200 | +160 Top-10<\/strong>:\u00a0 Simpson is yet another guy that has played all four days every time he has made the trip to Waialae. He is 11 for 11 in cuts made with an extremely consistent seven straight Top-20\u2019s. His last three starts here are incredible, finishing T4, 3rd and T4. He also comes in hotter than either Howell or Leishman, ranking 4th in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, averaging +1.49 per round, and has finished in the Top-15 in each of his last two starts.<\/p>\nAndy’s Players to Fade Head to Head<\/h3>\n
Jason Kokrak<\/strong> – He\u2019s a bomber, but that doesn\u2019t matter if you can\u2019t putt and his putting woes reared their ugly head again last week as he was -5.2 in putting en route to a 38th place finish in a tournament that had 38 participants. In the short start to the 21-22 season he\u2019s 163rd in strokes gained tee to green, and 176th strokes gained around the green.<\/p>\nBrian Harman<\/strong> – Harman has been a disaster recently as his best finish in his last five tournaments is 54th, and he hasn\u2019t faired well here the last three years finishing MC, 32, 56. The wind should be minimal this week which favors the long drivers, and he is anything but a long driver. He\u2019s not in good form, and the elements don\u2019t favor him this week.<\/p>\nAbraham Ancer<\/strong> – His short, but accurate game doesn\u2019t work on courses like what we saw last week as he just can\u2019t overpower a course like other guys. He\u2019s 3rd in driving accuracy this season, but 164th in length, and 125th in greens in regulation and with good weather conditions, I look to see similar results from him this week as we did last week where he finished 35th out of 38 golfers. He\u2019s missed the cut two times out of the four times he\u2019s played here, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see a third MC.<\/p>\nAndy’s Players to Support Head to Head<\/h3>\n
Talor Gooch<\/strong> – He\u2019s had his ups and downs the last couple years, but I feel like he started to get a bit more consistent the last half of the 20-21 season as he only missed two cuts between mid February and late August. He started off the 2022 season with six top 15 finishes in seven tourneys including a 15th last week.<\/p>\nHarris English<\/strong> – English\u2019s final position wasn\u2019t amazing last week, but his back looked fully healed, and that was what I was looking for. His first round wasn\u2019t very good, but improved each of the next three rounds, and in round 3 he hit a bad drive out of bounds that cost him two shots, but he rebounded to shoot -6 for the day. I\u2019d like to get a matchup with him vs Jason Kokrack or Abraham Ancer to pull the trigger on.<\/p>\nMatt Kuchar<\/strong> – We are starting to see Kuchar get to twilight of his career as a threat to win tournaments, and while he can have the occasional good finish I think we might get him a bit over valued this week as he won this tournament in 2019, but he missed the cut here the next two years.<\/p>\nInterested in placing a bet on this week’s Sony Open in Hawaii? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet<\/a> for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.<\/em><\/p>\n