Thomas Petersen -166 v Jamal Pogues +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThese are two big guys that will square off, and I think this could be a situation where neither can get a real advantage on the other and the fight ends up being close, and it goes the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Petersen is coming from Contender Series, but his competition has been garbage. His one loss was in LFA to Waldo Cortes-Acosta who is in UFC now so it\u2019s concerning that he lost to the one UFC caliber fighter he\u2019s faced. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He likes to take guys down and end the fight with ground and pound or submission, but Jamal Pogues is not easy to take down as he\u2019s a big guy with lots of power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pogues also doesn\u2019t have amazing cardio, and his last three fights (one on Contender Series, two in UFC) have gone the distance and that\u2019s how I\u2019ll play this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Once it gets out of the first round, I don\u2019t think these guys will have the stamina to get a finish so I\u2019ll play this to go the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMarquel Mederos -162 v Landon Quinones +136<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a fun fight that takes place on the feet as both guys are talented strikeers. After watching Quinones lose within a minute on TUF, I didn\u2019t have faith in him when he made his debut in the UFC against Haqparast, but he had a good performance in a loss as he made it all three rounds and had some good moments with leg kicks and punches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mederos has looked great in his last two fights as he got quick knockouts in Fury FC and on Contender Series, and on Contender Series he fought off a grappler for the first few minutes before landing a brutal knee that got the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Two fights ago he went to decision against a grappler so I think he\u2019s more well rounded than Quinones, but I think we could see a finish in this fight from either guy so I think this fight doesn\u2019t go the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Both guys have KO power, and I watched Quinones show terrible ground game on TUF so there are lots of paths for both these guys to finish each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I expect a brutal fight with lots of damage so I\u2019ll wait til props come out and take it to not go the distance<\/strong>. No strong opinion on who will win, but Quinones is certainly a live dog in this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJulija Stoliarenko -122 v Luana Carolina +102<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt feels like this fight comes down to Carolina not getting in an armbar, and if she stays out of trouble in the submission win she will get the win. Stoliarenko is 2-4 in her last five fights with her two wins being armbar submissions in the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Carolina isn\u2019t an amazing fighter, but she\u2019s coming off a nice win against Petrovic where she showed good cardio, good defense in the clinch and on the ground where she was able to transition from defense to offense and I think she can stay out of trouble for three rounds here to get the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I probably won\u2019t get the window on this fight, but Carolina at plus money is the play here<\/strong> as I can\u2019t get behind a one trick pony like Stoliarenko.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJeong Yeong Lee -135 v Blake Bilder +114<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBilder is coming off a loss to Kyle Nelson where Nelson all of a sudden had amazing cardio and shocked everyone with a great performance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bilder looked overconfident and just came up short in all aspects of the fight to get his first loss. I don\u2019t really know what Bilder does great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He can grapple, he can get takedowns, he can strike, but he doesn\u2019t do any of those things at an elite level so I\u2019m skeptical of him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lee is a striker with loads of finishes on his record, but he won a split decision in his last fight against a grappler who was constantly shooting for takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lee was able to fend him off and win the 2nd and 3rd rounds with his striking so this will be interesting to see if Bilder pushes for the clinch and takedowns or if he tries to strike to Lee. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a tough fight to handicap, but I\u2019ll lean Bilder<\/strong> as I think the loss against Nelson might have knocked him off his high horse and get him a bit more focused and I think he can squeeze out a couple of rounds to win by decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Themba Gorimbo -235 v Pete Rodriguez +190<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a classic striker vs grappler as Gorimbo will try and get this fight to the ground while Rodriguez is a boxer and will do whatever he can to keep it on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t know what to make of Rodriguez as he made his debut against Jack Madellena on short notice and he got KO\u2019d, and they gave him a layup in his next fight that he won in the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gorimbo isn\u2019t a great fighter, but he\u2019s effective at holding guys down on the mat and that\u2019s probably what will happen here. I\u2019ll make this quick\u2026don\u2019t bet on this fight<\/strong>. There\u2019s no value anywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Azat Maksum -195 v Charles Johnson +205<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ve never been a Charles Johnson fan, and I\u2019ve done well betting against him recently. His wins in the UFC are a split decision to Zhumagulov, and to Jimmy Flick who is terrible, and other than that he continues to be a fade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maksum made his debut against Tyson Nam and got the close decision win, but we were all surprised that he didn\u2019t grapple and wrestle more, and I thought he was fortunate to get the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maksum is undefeated, but I hope he\u2019s improved since his fight against Tyson Nam as Johnson will make this close on the feet and on the ground. Both guys have good cardio, but not a lot of finishing ability here so I like this fight to go the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Molly McCann -300 v Diana Belbita +220<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a rematch from 2019 where McCann took the decision win, and while I\u2019m not excited to lay -300 on McCann, I\u2019m also not excited to lay +220 on Belbita, but I\u2019m excited to take this fight to go the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Belbita has one fight in the UFC that hasn\u2019t gone the distance, and that was where she lost to a first round armbar, and Molly McCann isn\u2019t getting an armbar in this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The last four fights for McCann haven\u2019t gone the distance, but she lost two fights to submission specialists, and she knocked out two fighters who aren\u2019t very good on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
With McCann\u2019s last four fights ending early, yet the line being this juiced, the books are telling us they expect a long fight and I\u2019ll agree with them<\/strong>. This is a great parlay piece for this card.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gilbert Urbina -202 v Charlie Radtke +167<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWe hadn\u2019t seen Urbina in almost two years since losing to Bryan Battle, and he looked great against Cosce getting the round two KO with a great body kick. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
What was amazing was how big he was as he had a huge size and power advantage, and he\u2019ll have the same advantage in this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Urbina looked good on the feet and on the ground, and while his striking wasn\u2019t super crisp, and his ground game wasn\u2019t UFC elite, it was effective and he was in control from the beginning. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Radtke made his UFC debut against Blood Diamond, and he got the win, but he looked bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Blood Diamond is one of the worst UFC fighters ever so it didn\u2019t take much for Radtke as he used the clinch game to squeak out rounds, but his cardio fell off, he looked lazy and sloppy, and Radtke absorbed a lot of damage to his right eye. If he fights like that again, Urbina cruises, and that\u2019s what expect here<\/strong>. I\u2019ll take Urbina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Aliaskhab Khizriev -180 v Makhmud Muradov +150<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is an interesting fight where I think there\u2019s real value in the underdog. Khizriev is 14-0, and won his Contender Series fight and UFC debut by submission, but the competition wasn\u2019t great and I saw his cardio start to fall off against Denis Tiuliulin, and Muradov is much better than him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ve watched Muradov have plenty of energy in the third round, and he has good enough striking and ground game to avoid the early finish from Khizriev, and I wonder what\u2019s going to happen when Khizriev can\u2019t get Muradov out of there early. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t think either guy has amazing striking, and Muradov may even be better on the feet, and he can defend Khizriev on the ground so I see this as Khizriev\u2019s biggest test yet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Don\u2019t be surprised if Khizriev takes round one and Muradov makes it very interesting in the next two rounds, and maybe a sprinkle on Muradov round three. Give me the underdog<\/strong> in this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNatalia Silva -345 v Viviane Araujo +230<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
No way I\u2019m getting in the way of the Natalia Silva train so I\u2019ll put her in a parlay to win because there\u2019s no reason to not make money off of her this weekend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her striking is elite and so is her speed and I don\u2019t see how 37 year old Viviane Araujo overcomes it for three rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Araujo\u2019s only chance at victory is a flash KO, or to somehow get in close to Silva and control the clinch or take her down, but I just don\u2019t see it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Araujo barely beat Jennifeer Maia in her last fight while Natalia Silva dismantled Andrea Lee for three rounds. Silva should absolutely roll here in dominant fashion<\/strong>. I don\u2019t think Silva gets the finish, but the volume, speed and cardio will be way too much for Araujo to withstand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRandy Brown -250 v Muslim Salikhov +205<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis fight screams \u201cFight To Go The Distance\u201d as Randy Brown\u2019s has won five out of his last six fights and all went to decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s long and rangy, but just lacks the finishing power\/ability so he ends up in these really close fights that go to the judges. His striking can be good, but he just always seem to fight to the level of his opponent and it leads to underwhelming performances. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Salikhov will be a tough opponent as he has power and can initiate the clinch and do good work inside, but he\u2019s lost two out of three and is almost 40 years old. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Brown should win, but instead of -250 maybe taking him to win by decision would help the price<\/strong>, but I\u2019ll just stay away from this fight most likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRenato Moicano -180 v Drew Dober +150<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis fight is -130 to go under 1.5 rounds so that tells you to expect violence, and I agree. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Moicano is an agressive fighter and six of his last seven fights have not gone the distance as his striking can be good which sets up the submission on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dober is a striker and his last five fights haven\u2019t gone the distance so I don\u2019t think there\u2019s any reason to look at a side here. Under 1.5 at -130 sounds like a solid bet<\/strong> to me or take the fight to not go the distance as a parlay piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Roman Dolidze +140 vs Nassourdine Imavov -170<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a pretty even fight, but I like Imavov to wear Dolidze down over the fight. Dolidze can have some nice explosive moments, but he takes time off in between big pushes and I think Imavov takes advantage of those down times. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Imavov\u2019s kicks will do some damage and his striking will be more effective, and if I\u2019m being honest I\u2019m not that impressed with Dolidze\u2019s record. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He beat some pretty bad competition in Staropoli, Daukaus and Hawes, and then beat Jack Hermansson in one of the strangest ways to win a fight ever\u2026a fight he was losing until he wasn\u2019t. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Then he lost a decision to Marvin Vettori when he stepped up in competition so I\u2019m just not sold on him. It\u2019s actually a pretty good price here on Imavov who was winning his last fight against Chris Curtis until a head clash ended the fight in a no contest. I think Imavov wears down Dolidze and wins late<\/strong> or by decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25818","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25818"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25818\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25819,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25818\/revisions\/25819"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25818"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25818"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25818"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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