Joshua Van -198 v Felipe Bunes +164<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBunes is making his UFC debut, and I\u2019m not all that impressed with him. He has unique striking, but it\u2019s not always crisp, and he just doesn\u2019t look that strong or powerful. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s a bit lanky and he finished his last fight by first round KO, but he\u2019s only 3-4 in his last 7 fights, and I think Van is just a bit better at this point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
My only pause here is that Bunes hasn\u2019t fought in a year, and I\u2019ve seen some of these guys coming from other promotions have good performances when they have a big break from their last fight to their UFC debut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I lean for this fight to not go the distance<\/strong>, but both of Van\u2019s UFC fights have gone the distance so there may just not be any value in betting this fight. It\u2019s a pass for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTom Nolan -258 v Nikolas Motta +210<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIf you haven\u2019t seen Tom Nolan fight, you\u2019re in for a treat. He\u2019s powerful, explosive, wild and yet his cardio is good. He pushes forward and overwhelms his opponent, and I think he\u2019ll do that here to Motta. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Motta is coming off a brutal KO loss to Manuel Torres, and that\u2019s two losses in three UFC fights with his win being against Cameron VanCamp who is not a UFC fighter anymore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
You can wait til props come out and take Nolan ITD<\/strong>, but I\u2019ll play it safe and take this fight under 2.5 rounds. It might be a bit juicy, but it\u2019s a great parlay piece as Tom Nolan fights don\u2019t go very long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJean Silva -750 v Westin Wilson +525<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThere\u2019s not much you can do with this fight as -750 is insane, but at the same time I\u2019m not betting on Westin Wilson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ll wait til props come out and see if under 2.5 rounds is a decent price, but if it\u2019s higher than -400 I\u2019ll pass. Silva went the distance on Contender Series, but he really beat up his opponent, and I don\u2019t know if Westin Wilson can survive the strikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wilson will be taller, but that\u2019s the only thing the 34 year old will have going for him. He leaves his face wide open and Silva will take advantage. Silva by TKO<\/strong>, but I\u2019m not sure there will be a decent enough price to make it worth a bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFarid Basharat -238 v Taylor Lapilous +195<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFarid Basharat has looked great in his two UFC fights, and his performance against Kleydson Rodrigues was impressive as he dominated and got the first round choke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Taylor Lapilus gets a second chance in the UFC as he beat Caolan Loughran in September after being cut seven years ago, and although he won, I wasn\u2019t really impressed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He showed good takedown defense and good striking, but Basharat is a big step up in competition, and Basharat\u2019s technique is so clean and effective that he\u2019s really difficult to get in a groove against. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Basharat lands strikes to start the fight to set up the takedown where he\u2019ll win on the ground. Basharat is the play here, and a good parlay piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Marcus McGhee -278 v Gaston Bolanos +225<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBolanos won his UFC debut in his last fight as he came over from Bellator, and what got him the the win was having better cardio than his opponent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bolanos won the first round, but dropped the second round as his opponent was able to take him down twice and control the round, but Bolanos had more left in the tank for round three and got the victory despite being taken down once again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Marcus McGhee has two finishes in his first two UFC fights, but this is a step up in competition, and I like the underdog here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bolanos\u2019s weakness is clearly his takedown defense, but I think Bolanos is going to be faster on the feet and faster in the striking, and I don\u2019t think McGhee will take him down and hold him there. This is a great spot to play the underdog<\/strong>, I\u2019ll be on Bolanos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Matthew Semelsburger -130 v Preston Parsons +110<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nParsons pushes forward and wants his opponent against the fence, and I think he can do that against Semelsberger, but if he hasn\u2019t improved his striking defense, Semelsberger will piece him up on the feet, and that\u2019s what this fight comes down to. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Parsons lost a razor close decision against Trevin Giles in his last fight and he fought great, but his lack of striking defense was the deciding factor as he absorbed way too much damage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Giles is better than Semelsberger so maybe this is a step down, but I do think Parsons will probably be the fresher fighter in round three, and I think that\u2019s what makes me like the underdog here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Semelsberger will have success on the feet for parts of the fight, and Parsons will have the advantage on clinch and takedowns, but in round three I think Semelsberger slows down too much and Parsons takes the round and the fight. Should be a fun match, but I think Parsons is the play<\/strong> here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Waldo Cortes-Acosta -550 v Andrei Arlovski +310<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is pretty straight forward here as Arlovski is taking fights to get paydays as his contract and career runs out. He doesn\u2019t have cardio or finishing power left and he\u2019s lost his last two fights by finish to subpar opponents in Mayes and Lima. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Before that, he won two fights by split decision, and Costa is just younger, more athletic and has better cardio at this point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Costa should have no problems landing strikes on the feet, and if this gets past the first round we\u2019ll see Arlovski fade quick. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s a steep price at -550, maybe taking him to win by finish would be worth it<\/strong> as Costa finished Brzeski in his last fight, but I just don\u2019t see a path for Arlovski who is 44 years old.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Brunno Ferreira -122 v Phil Hawes +102<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth guys have power, and both guys have chin issues, but Phil Hawes\u2019s chin is pretty much gone at this point. He still has skills, and can absolutely win this fight, but he\u2019ll have to not get chin-checked at all as Ferreira hits like a tank. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight will take place on the feet until one of them gets knocked out, and Ferreira has the pure power advantage, but his skillset is raw and he got knocked out bad in his last fight to Ruziboev, and he was on his way to getting knocked out against Rodrigues until he pulled off one of the more improbable counter shots that knocked out Rodrigues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
So I don\u2019t trust him in this fight, and I certainly don\u2019t trust Hawes, but the one thing I do trust is that this fight won\u2019t go the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It probably won\u2019t go past 1.5 rounds<\/strong>, but this is my favorite parlay piece on this card. Take the fight to not go the distance, pair it with something else and you\u2019ll find profits coming your way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ricky Simon -166 v Mario Bautista +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ve been a fan of betting on Ricky Simon fights, and I\u2019ve been a fan of betting on Mario Bautista in his last few fights, and I\u2019ve had a good read on both these fighters so I feel confident in my read on this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ricky Simon is going to win with his relentless pressure, and chain wrestling, and even though he\u2019s on a big winning streak, Bautista isn\u2019t going to be able to handle it for three rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bautista\u2019s last three wins are against a full time realtor, a 43 year old, and a guy on one week notice, and he struggled against Blackshear who was on short notice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Risky Simon hits harder than anyone Bautista has faced, and his pressure is insane. He\u2019s coming off a loss to Yadong Song, but it was a great fight and Song is a legit title contender. This is too big of a step up in competition for Bautista, I love Simon<\/strong> in this matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJim Miller -115 v Gabriel Benitez -105\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a really close fight, but I lean ever so slightly to Benitez despite him\u00a0 losing 4 out of his last 6 fights. He has accurate striking and he\u2019s good in the clinch,\u00a0and his losses have been to really good fighters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His wins have been against Charlie\u00a0Ontiveros and Justin Jaynes recently, and Miller is better than those guys, but Miller has\u00a0 beaten guys with some pretty glaring holes in their game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jesse Butler isn\u2019t a UFC\u00a0caliber fighter, Donald Cerrone was done years before he fought Miller, and Motta and\u00a0Gonzalez gassed early and Miller took both of them out in the second round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t see\u00a0the holes in Benitez\u2019s striking defense that Miller is going to need to damage him and\u00a0slow him up, but I do worry about cardio for both guys<\/strong>, and for that reason I won\u2019t be\u00a0betting on this fight. Let\u2019s just hope Jim Miller doesn\u2019t get injured in this fight so he can\u00a0get his fight at UFC 300.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nManel Kape -245 v Matheus Nicolau +200<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI don\u2019t understand this line at all. I like Kape, but -245 is crazy. These two fought in 2021, and Nicolau got the split decision win so Kape has the motivation, but who has Kape beat? <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Zhalgas Zhumagulov who loses to everyone, David Dvorak who has lost three straight, and Felipe Dos Santos who has 7 professional fights, and made his UFC debut on short notice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m just not impressed with that, and although his striking and movement is really good, he can get hit. Nicolau is coming off a first round loss where Royval knocked him out with a beautiful knee early in the fight so we didn\u2019t get a chance to see Nicolau do anything. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
As much as I\u2019m skeptical of Kape, Nicolau hasn\u2019t beat the best guys either and coming off that quick KO, you have to wonder about his chin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ll give the edge to Kape here as his volume and speed should let him pull away the longer the fight goes on, but no chance I\u2019m laying -245<\/strong> when Nicolau has KO power and Kape has looked lackluster at times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev -500 vs Johnny Walker +375<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The first fight ended in bizarre fashion, and there appears to be legit bad blood between these two so this fight could have fireworks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Johnny Walker will want to land leg kicks<\/strong> as it\u2019s a big liability for Ankalaev to thwart the takedown from Ankalaev, but I just don\u2019t think Walker can keep Ankalaev off of him for the entire fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWhen Ankalaev got Walker down in the first fight, he held him down until the illegal knee ended the fight, but I thought it was evident that the punching and takedown offense of Ankalev was going to be there all fight, and I think that\u2019s what happens in this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I can\u2019t lay -500, but Ankalaev should win, and I also like overs in this fight as sneaky plays<\/strong>. Both guys have finishes on their resume, but if Ankalaev wants this fight to stay on the ground, I could see him grinding out a lot of minutes on the mat. Ankalaev<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25491"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25491\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25492,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25491\/revisions\/25492"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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