{"id":25414,"date":"2024-01-01T13:49:52","date_gmt":"2024-01-01T18:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=25414"},"modified":"2024-01-01T13:49:54","modified_gmt":"2024-01-01T18:49:54","slug":"texas-vs-washington-picks-best-bets-college-football-playoff-sugar-bowl-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/texas-vs-washington-picks-best-bets-college-football-playoff-sugar-bowl-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Texas vs Washington Picks, Best Bets: College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Texas Longhorns  vs Washington Huskies <strong>Best Bets<\/strong> : Sugar Bowl CFP Analysis &amp; Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ronacesports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>\u00a0offers some sweet betting picks on the college football playoff at the Sugar Bowl being played on January 1st, between Texas &amp; Washington. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?  Find top predictions here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Texas nearly ran the table, losing only in the last seconds to Oklahoma.\u00a0 There were three close calls, two of which were vs. subpar teams.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Washington ran the table, winning five close games.\u00a0 They have the lowest Power Rating of the four finalists, but that offense is scary, and has proven tough to stop with the game on the line.\u00a0 This is a really good matchup.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Find free <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/college-football\">college football best bets<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/a.slack-edge.com\/production-standard-emoji-assets\/14.0\/google-medium\/1f6d2@2x.png\" alt=\":shopping_trolley:\">&nbsp;All FIRST TIME customers will receive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-16018d1d wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-black-color has-luminous-vivid-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\"><strong>Get 15% Off All Premium Bowl Picks<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sugar Bowl CFP Predictions and Best Bets:  Texas Offense<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Texas scored 26 or more points in every game, averaging 39 for the season.\u00a0 QB Ewers has a natural and very smooth delivery and the football tends to land softly into the hands of his receivers.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen him fire the ball into tight spaces, and will be watching that for NFL draft study.\u00a0 With an expected clean pocket, I have him completing 24 passes for close to 300 yards.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lead RB Brooks was lost for the season, but the Texas yards-per-carry average didn\u2019t change much.\u00a0 Highly touted RB Baxter is beginning to find his stride and could carry a heavier workload, given Washington\u2019s run defense is the one weak link for either team.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can he top 100 yards?\u00a0 RB Blue has nearly shared the load of late.\u00a0 I\u2019d go more Baxter in this spot, while noting that the two RB\u2019s have combined for 19 receptions in the past three games.\u00a0 There\u2019s NFL talent at WR and at TE.\u00a0 Lead WR Worthy was in a walking boot after the Big 12 title game.\u00a0 How healthy will he be?\u00a0 I\u2019m a big fan of TE Sanders and he has carried a high yards-per-reception figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Huskies Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Defensively, Texas was strong at times, but yielded 24 or more points to several offenses, and Washington has the type of offense to easily exceed that number.\u00a0 I boldly projected a 3.5 per carry rush defense, and Texas bettered that, at 3.3\/95 yards allowed per game.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alabama ran 35-107.\u00a0 Oklahoma ran 43-201.\u00a0 Washington can achieve run-pass balance with RB Johnson, but should be held closer to 4.0 per carry in this spot.\u00a0 Their 60% pass defense was on my projections.\u00a0 Alabama was 14-27.\u00a0 Oklahoma was 23-38.\u00a0 Texas Tech was 19-36.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Penix will be tough to defend, but it hasn\u2019t been easy to be consistent vs. this defense.\u00a0 Kicking was 28-34.\u00a0 34 attempts is a surprise to me, and could be a red flag that the Longhorns are not finishing drives.\u00a0 The sack ratio was 32-26 (allowed only 17 sacks a year ago).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sugar Bowl CFP Video Picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"epyt-video-wrapper\"><div  style=\"display: block; 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Our college football handicapping experts discuss this matchup from a sports betting perspective, sharing their picks and predictions vs. the current odds. #collegefootballprediction #collegefootballpicks #cfbpicks \ud83c\udfc8 Texas Longhorns vs Washington Huskies | Sugar Bowl Matchup Preview \ud83c\udfc6 Get ready for gridiron excitement as the Texas Longhorns take on the Washington Huskies in the thrilling Sugar Bowl matchup! \ud83c\udf6c\ud83c\udfdf\ufe0f \ud83d\udcc5 Date: 1\/1\/24 at 8:45pm ET \ud83d\udccd Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana \ud83d\udd25 Team Nicknames: Texas Longhorns: &quot;Hook &#039;Em&quot; Washington Huskies: &quot;Purple and Gold&quot; \ud83d\udcfa How to Watch: Catch the action live on ESPN. Check local listings for channel information. \ud83d\udd04 Team Twitter Hashtags: Texas Longhorns: #HookEm Washington Huskies: #PurpleReign \ud83d\udcca Current Spread and Total: TEX -4.5 | Over\/Under 63.5 \ud83d\udd0d Interesting Facts: The Texas Longhorns, with their iconic &quot;Hook &#039;Em&quot; symbol, bring a rich football tradition and a passionate fan base to the Sugar Bowl. The Washington Huskies, donned in Purple and Gold, showcase a legacy of success and a commitment to excellence on the gridiron. This matchup promises a clash of contrasting styles, featuring the dynamic offense of the Longhorns against the staunch defense of the Huskies. The Sugar Bowl&#039;s illustrious history adds an extra layer of significance to this showdown between two powerhouse programs. Don&#039;t miss out on the Sugar Bowl spectacle as the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies battle for supremacy on the field. Tune in for an unforgettable night of college football! \ud83c\udfc8\ud83c\udf6c #HookEm #PurpleReign #SugarBowl #CollegeFootball \ud83d\udc4d Make sure to SUBSCRIBE to WagerTalk TV; \ud83d\udd14 CLICK the Bell and never miss an episode! \ud83c\udfc8 More Free College Football Picks: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/college-football \ud83e\udd11 Free Sports Picks: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks \ud83d\udcca Live Odds: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds \ud83d\uddde\ufe0f News: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news \ud83d\udc4d Stay connected with WagerTalk \ud83d\udcfa YouTube: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tv \ud83d\udc4d Facebook: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/fb \ud83d\udc26 Twitter: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tw \ud83d\udcf8 Instagram: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ig \ud83d\udcf0 Reddit: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/rd \u2764\ufe0f iHeart Radio: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/iheart \ud83c\udf4e Apple Podcasts: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ap \ud83d\udccc Pinterest: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/pin\"><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/AyQysqdRQu4\/0.jpg\"><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT5M31S\"><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2023-12-23T15:00:08Z\"><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sugar Bowl Picks:  Can Washington Prevail in the Semifinal?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Washington \u201cslumped\u201d to scoring just under 38 points per game, with ASU (15), OSU (22) and WSU (24) their lowest outputs.\u00a0 QB Penix hit 66% with a 33-9 ratio.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have four outings to use for comparison sakes.\u00a0 Penix was 24-42 vs. Utah, 49-76 in the two games vs. Oregon, and had a bad game at OSU (13-28), where that defense continually frustrated him.\u00a0 Those add up to 86-146, which is under 60%.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Penix in my eyes is a rhythm QB.\u00a0 When hot, he can beat those numbers, but I see this as one of the important keys to this game.\u00a0 He will be throwing to two electric WR\u2019s.\u00a0 Odunze is almost impossible to stop.\u00a0 McMillon regained his health and went 14-157 in his last two games.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WR Polk and TE Westover make this unit even better.\u00a0 RB Johnson (5.55 per carry) had a few breakout games and was a finisher several times, closing out wins.\u00a0 In two games vs. Oregon, he ran 48-252.\u00a0 He was stout vs. OSU at 16-89.\u00a0 In other games vs. strong teams, he was 23-104 vs. Utah and 16-91 vs. Arizona.\u00a0 Texas faces a very balanced Washington offense.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">OK Washington Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Defensively, Washington allowed 27 points per game vs. PAC 12 opponents.\u00a0 For the season they allowed 18 rushing TD\u2019s and a 40% 3<sup>rd<\/sup> down success rate.\u00a0 They were not as good as I expected vs. the run, allowing 4.5 per carry.\u00a0 They were better than expected vs. the pass, coming in at 59.7% vs. a strong slate of PAC 12 QB\u2019s.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on these figures, Texas will also achieve run-pass balance.\u00a0 Kicking was decent at 13-17. \u00a0 In 2022 the sack ratio was 35-7.\u00a0 This year I was quite surprised to see defensive sacks drop, all the way down to 19.\u00a0 That\u2019s Washington\u2019s red flag.\u00a0 Pass protection remained great (11 sacks allowed).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/dnq230422004uwspring-e1692125942400.jpg\" alt=\"sugar bowl\" class=\"wp-image-22016\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/dnq230422004uwspring-e1692125942400.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/dnq230422004uwspring-e1692125942400-300x165.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/dnq230422004uwspring-e1692125942400-768x422.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sugar Bowl Best Bets &#8211; The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Texas must establish the run.\u00a0 Their RB\u2019s are not quite as good as Washington\u2019s Johnson, but Washington\u2019s run defense is the more vulnerable unit.\u00a0 How does Texas stop Odunze?\u00a0 Conversely, how does Washington stop TE Sanders if they are concerned with all the speed Texas has at WR?\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why has Washington not been more efficient at rushing the QB?\u00a0 Ewers would be deadly with a clean pocket.\u00a0 Finally, what\u2019s going on with Texas in the redzone?\u00a0 They attempted 18 field goals INSIDE 40 yards.\u00a0 Washington only attempted 17 total field goals.\u00a0 Settling for field goals in this game may not be enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CFP Semifinal Picks &amp; Predictions &#8211; The Sugar Bowl <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Will Penix be streaky vs. this defense, going through periods where his timing is off?\u00a0 If I\u2019m right, I get Texas by seven points.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My concerns are what if Penix finds his rhythm (possible, if the pass rush is slowed down), and what if Texas continues to get bogged down in the red zone.\u00a0 One final note: Keep an eye out as to the health of Texas WR Worthy, as he\u2019s their #1 target.\u00a0 This should be an entertaining and fun game to watch play out<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Pick: Sugar Bowl CFP Expert Betting Recommendation!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Two bowl indicators pick Texas, and that will be my pick (current line -3.5\/4).\u00a0 I\u2019m concerned about Washington\u2019s run defense, and this could be a sweet spot for RB Baxter.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for even more college football coverage?  Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk&#8217;s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s college football <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L2&amp;cb=0.4228145318819374\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/news\/football\/article\/2023-12-03\/2023-24-college-football-bowl-game-schedule-scores-tv-channels-times\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on<\/span> and anytime touchdown scorer odds. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Texas Longhorns vs Washington Huskies Best Bets : Sugar Bowl CFP Analysis &amp; Predictions Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky\u00a0offers some sweet betting picks on the college football playoff at the Sugar Bowl being played on January 1st, between Texas &amp; Washington. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":24607,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2044],"tags":[8,5239,7916,7915,8096,8097,1088,5152,5151,11,8098],"class_list":["post-25414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football","tag-college-football-best-bets","tag-college-football-bowl-game-betting-advice","tag-college-football-bowl-game-preview","tag-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football-bowl-picks","tag-college-football-picks","tag-free-college-football-picks","tag-free-ncaaf-picks","tag-ncaaf","tag-ncaaf-predictions"],"basic_html":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Texas Longhorns  vs Washington Huskies <strong>Best Bets<\/strong> : Sugar Bowl CFP Analysis &amp; Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ronacesports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>\u00a0offers some sweet betting picks on the college football playoff at the Sugar Bowl being played on January 1st, between Texas &amp; Washington. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?  Find top predictions here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Texas nearly ran the table, losing only in the last seconds to Oklahoma.\u00a0 There were three close calls, two of which were vs. subpar teams.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Washington ran the table, winning five close games.\u00a0 They have the lowest Power Rating of the four finalists, but that offense is scary, and has proven tough to stop with the game on the line.\u00a0 This is a really good matchup.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Find free <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/college-football\">college football best bets<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks - <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/a.slack-edge.com\/production-standard-emoji-assets\/14.0\/google-medium\/1f6d2@2x.png\" alt=\":shopping_trolley:\">&nbsp;All FIRST TIME customers will receive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sugar Bowl CFP Predictions and Best Bets:  Texas Offense<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Texas scored 26 or more points in every game, averaging 39 for the season.\u00a0 QB Ewers has a natural and very smooth delivery and the football tends to land softly into the hands of his receivers.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I haven\u2019t seen him fire the ball into tight spaces, and will be watching that for NFL draft study.\u00a0 With an expected clean pocket, I have him completing 24 passes for close to 300 yards.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Lead RB Brooks was lost for the season, but the Texas yards-per-carry average didn\u2019t change much.\u00a0 Highly touted RB Baxter is beginning to find his stride and could carry a heavier workload, given Washington\u2019s run defense is the one weak link for either team.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Can he top 100 yards?\u00a0 RB Blue has nearly shared the load of late.\u00a0 I\u2019d go more Baxter in this spot, while noting that the two RB\u2019s have combined for 19 receptions in the past three games.\u00a0 There\u2019s NFL talent at WR and at TE.\u00a0 Lead WR Worthy was in a walking boot after the Big 12 title game.\u00a0 How healthy will he be?\u00a0 I\u2019m a big fan of TE Sanders and he has carried a high yards-per-reception figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Huskies Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Defensively, Texas was strong at times, but yielded 24 or more points to several offenses, and Washington has the type of offense to easily exceed that number.\u00a0 I boldly projected a 3.5 per carry rush defense, and Texas bettered that, at 3.3\/95 yards allowed per game.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Alabama ran 35-107.\u00a0 Oklahoma ran 43-201.\u00a0 Washington can achieve run-pass balance with RB Johnson, but should be held closer to 4.0 per carry in this spot.\u00a0 Their 60% pass defense was on my projections.\u00a0 Alabama was 14-27.\u00a0 Oklahoma was 23-38.\u00a0 Texas Tech was 19-36.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Penix will be tough to defend, but it hasn\u2019t been easy to be consistent vs. this defense.\u00a0 Kicking was 28-34.\u00a0 34 attempts is a surprise to me, and could be a red flag that the Longhorns are not finishing drives.\u00a0 The sack ratio was 32-26 (allowed only 17 sacks a year ago).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sugar Bowl CFP Video Picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/AyQysqdRQu4?origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sugar Bowl Picks:  Can Washington Prevail in the Semifinal?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Washington \u201cslumped\u201d to scoring just under 38 points per game, with ASU (15), OSU (22) and WSU (24) their lowest outputs.\u00a0 QB Penix hit 66% with a 33-9 ratio.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I have four outings to use for comparison sakes.\u00a0 Penix was 24-42 vs. Utah, 49-76 in the two games vs. Oregon, and had a bad game at OSU (13-28), where that defense continually frustrated him.\u00a0 Those add up to 86-146, which is under 60%.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Penix in my eyes is a rhythm QB.\u00a0 When hot, he can beat those numbers, but I see this as one of the important keys to this game.\u00a0 He will be throwing to two electric WR\u2019s.\u00a0 Odunze is almost impossible to stop.\u00a0 McMillon regained his health and went 14-157 in his last two games.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>WR Polk and TE Westover make this unit even better.\u00a0 RB Johnson (5.55 per carry) had a few breakout games and was a finisher several times, closing out wins.\u00a0 In two games vs. Oregon, he ran 48-252.\u00a0 He was stout vs. OSU at 16-89.\u00a0 In other games vs. strong teams, he was 23-104 vs. Utah and 16-91 vs. Arizona.\u00a0 Texas faces a very balanced Washington offense.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">OK Washington Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Defensively, Washington allowed 27 points per game vs. PAC 12 opponents.\u00a0 For the season they allowed 18 rushing TD\u2019s and a 40% 3<sup>rd<\/sup> down success rate.\u00a0 They were not as good as I expected vs. the run, allowing 4.5 per carry.\u00a0 They were better than expected vs. the pass, coming in at 59.7% vs. a strong slate of PAC 12 QB\u2019s.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Based on these figures, Texas will also achieve run-pass balance.\u00a0 Kicking was decent at 13-17. \u00a0 In 2022 the sack ratio was 35-7.\u00a0 This year I was quite surprised to see defensive sacks drop, all the way down to 19.\u00a0 That\u2019s Washington\u2019s red flag.\u00a0 Pass protection remained great (11 sacks allowed).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/dnq230422004uwspring-e1692125942400.jpg\" alt=\"sugar bowl\" class=\"wp-image-22016\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sugar Bowl Best Bets - The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Texas must establish the run.\u00a0 Their RB\u2019s are not quite as good as Washington\u2019s Johnson, but Washington\u2019s run defense is the more vulnerable unit.\u00a0 How does Texas stop Odunze?\u00a0 Conversely, how does Washington stop TE Sanders if they are concerned with all the speed Texas has at WR?\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Why has Washington not been more efficient at rushing the QB?\u00a0 Ewers would be deadly with a clean pocket.\u00a0 Finally, what\u2019s going on with Texas in the redzone?\u00a0 They attempted 18 field goals INSIDE 40 yards.\u00a0 Washington only attempted 17 total field goals.\u00a0 Settling for field goals in this game may not be enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CFP Semifinal Picks &amp; Predictions - The Sugar Bowl <\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Will Penix be streaky vs. this defense, going through periods where his timing is off?\u00a0 If I\u2019m right, I get Texas by seven points.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>My concerns are what if Penix finds his rhythm (possible, if the pass rush is slowed down), and what if Texas continues to get bogged down in the red zone.\u00a0 One final note: Keep an eye out as to the health of Texas WR Worthy, as he\u2019s their #1 target.\u00a0 This should be an entertaining and fun game to watch play out<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Pick: Sugar Bowl CFP Expert Betting Recommendation!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Two bowl indicators pick Texas, and that will be my pick (current line -3.5\/4).\u00a0 I\u2019m concerned about Washington\u2019s run defense, and this could be a sweet spot for RB Baxter.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for even more college football coverage?  Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game - <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk's Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s college football <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L2&amp;cb=0.4228145318819374\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/news\/football\/article\/2023-12-03\/2023-24-college-football-bowl-game-schedule-scores-tv-channels-times\">NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul>\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p> <\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/46"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25414"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25414\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25417,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25414\/revisions\/25417"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}