{"id":25407,"date":"2024-01-01T13:28:02","date_gmt":"2024-01-01T18:28:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=25407"},"modified":"2024-01-01T13:28:04","modified_gmt":"2024-01-01T18:28:04","slug":"rose-bowl-college-football-playoff-michigan-alabama-best-bets-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/rose-bowl-college-football-playoff-michigan-alabama-best-bets-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Michigan vs Alabama Picks, Best Bets: College Football Playoff Rose Bowl Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide<strong> Best Bets<\/strong> : Rose Bowl CFP Analysis &amp; Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ronacesports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>\u00a0offers some killer betting picks on the college football playoff at the Rose Bowl being played on January 1st, between Michigan &amp; Alabama. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?  Find top predictions here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alabama beat Georgia 27-24 in the SEC title game, making everyone magically forget how their playoff hopes should have ended with a loss the previous week to Auburn.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, the names on the jersey\u2019s matter.\u00a0 <strong>Off the field, Michigan and Coach Harbaugh were a mess.\u00a0 On the field, games 1-9 were routs, as was their title game vs. Iowa.\u00a0 We\u2019re past the point of arguing whether or not Alabama should be here.\u00a0 The new question is this: Can a Nick Saban team be defeated off 37 days rest?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Find free <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/college-football\">college football best bets<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/a.slack-edge.com\/production-standard-emoji-assets\/14.0\/google-medium\/1f6d2@2x.png\" alt=\":shopping_trolley:\">&nbsp;All FIRST TIME customers will receive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-16018d1d wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-black-color has-luminous-vivid-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\"><strong>Get 15% Off All Premium Bowl Picks<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rose Bowl CFP Predictions and Best Bets:  Alabama Offense<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For much of the 1<sup>st<\/sup> half of the season, Alabama and QB Milne were scrambling around, trying to find a rhythm.\u00a0 Alabama was sacked 43 times, but that figure improved late in the season.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Milne was 14-27 vs. Texas, 21-33 vs. A&amp;M, a better 15-22 vs. Kentucky, and 13-23 vs. Georgia.\u00a0 I can see him around 60% in this game.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I like the variety of weapons on the roster, but there\u2019s a lack of elite WR talent this time around.\u00a0 In five of the past seven seasons the Tide ran for 5.3 per carry or more.\u00a0 2023\u2019s number was 2<sup>nd<\/sup> worse at 4.65.\u00a0 The top two RB\u2019s averaged around 5.0, but recent numbers vs. the better defenses show some slowdown.\u00a0 I think we\u2019ll see closer to 4.0 in this spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alabama Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Alabama\u2019s 3.8 allowed per carry was a bit high by their standards.\u00a0 Texas ran 34-111.\u00a0 A&amp;M ran 35-70.\u00a0 Auburn ran 42.244.\u00a0 LSU was the other team that dominated on the ground, but using the other three as my best comparisons, were back to around 3.8 allowed per carry.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pass defense shows a 59% completion rate by opponents, but this team has NFL talent in the secondary.\u00a0 They\u2019ll face a high percentage QB in McCarthy and I think 60+% is highly likely, but how many splash plays will be available?\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kicking was excellent at 20-23.\u00a0 Alabama has a good pass rush (38 defensive sacks).\u00a0 The 3<sup>rd<\/sup> down success rate was nearly 47%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rose Bowl CFP Video Picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"epyt-video-wrapper\"><div  style=\"display: block; margin: 0px auto;\"  id=\"_ytid_48767\"  width=\"870\" height=\"489\"  data-origwidth=\"870\" data-origheight=\"489\" data-facadesrc=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JSHG9Mnfezc?enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com&#038;autoplay=0&#038;cc_load_policy=1&#038;cc_lang_pref=&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;loop=0&#038;rel=0&#038;fs=1&#038;playsinline=0&#038;autohide=2&#038;hl=en_US&#038;theme=dark&#038;color=red&#038;controls=1&#038;disablekb=0&#038;\" class=\"__youtube_prefs__ epyt-facade  epyt-is-override  no-lazyload\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-spai-excluded=\"true\" class=\"epyt-facade-poster skip-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  alt=\"Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction and Picks - Rose Bowl Predictions\"  src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/JSHG9Mnfezc\/maxresdefault.jpg\"  \/><button class=\"epyt-facade-play\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg data-no-lazy=\"1\" height=\"100%\" version=\"1.1\" viewBox=\"0 0 68 48\" width=\"100%\"><path class=\"ytp-large-play-button-bg\" d=\"M66.52,7.74c-0.78-2.93-2.49-5.41-5.42-6.19C55.79,.13,34,0,34,0S12.21,.13,6.9,1.55 C3.97,2.33,2.27,4.81,1.48,7.74C0.06,13.05,0,24,0,24s0.06,10.95,1.48,16.26c0.78,2.93,2.49,5.41,5.42,6.19 C12.21,47.87,34,48,34,48s21.79-0.13,27.1-1.55c2.93-0.78,4.64-3.26,5.42-6.19C67.94,34.95,68,24,68,24S67.94,13.05,66.52,7.74z\" fill=\"#f00\"><\/path><path d=\"M 45,24 27,14 27,34\" fill=\"#fff\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div><\/div><span itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><meta itemprop=\"embedUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JSHG9Mnfezc\"><meta itemprop=\"name\" content=\"Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction and Picks - Rose Bowl Predictions\"><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"If you are looking for a Rose Bowl betting preview with picks and predictions for the match-up between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan Wolverines, we have you covered! Our college football handicapping experts discuss this matchup from a sports betting perspective, sharing their picks and predictions vs. the current odds. #collegefootballprediction #collegefootballpicks #cfbpicks \ud83c\udf39 Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines | Rose Bowl Matchup Preview \ud83c\udf39 \ud83c\udfc8 Get ready for an epic clash as the Alabama Crimson Tide face off against the Michigan Wolverines in the highly anticipated Rose Bowl matchup! \ud83c\udf39\ud83c\udfdf\ufe0f \ud83d\udcc5 Date: 1\/1\/24 at 5pm ET \ud83d\udccd Location: Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California \ud83d\udd25 Team Nicknames: Michigan Wolverines: &quot;Go Blue&quot; Alabama Crimson Tide: &quot;Roll Tide&quot; \ud83d\udcfa How to Watch: Catch all the action live on ESPN. Check your local listings for details. \ud83d\udd04 Team Twitter Hashtags: Michigan Wolverines: #GoBlue Alabama Crimson Tide: #RollTide \ud83d\udcca Current Spread and Total: MICH -2.5 | Over\/Under 45.5 \ud83d\udd0d Interesting Facts: The Michigan Wolverines, known for their historic program, are eager to make a statement in the Rose Bowl after a strong season. The Alabama Crimson Tide, a powerhouse in college football, bring a legacy of success and a reputation for producing top-tier talent. This matchup marks a collision of two football titans, promising a game full of intensity and skill. The Rose Bowl, steeped in tradition, serves as the perfect backdrop for this clash of champions. Don&#039;t miss the excitement as these two powerhouse teams go head-to-head in the Rose Bowl. Tune in for a showdown that&#039;s sure to be a highlight of the college football season! \ud83c\udf39\ud83c\udfc8 #GoBlue #RollTide #RoseBowl #CollegeFootball \ud83d\udc4d Make sure to SUBSCRIBE to WagerTalk TV; \ud83d\udd14 CLICK the Bell and never miss an episode! \ud83c\udfc8 More Free College Football Picks: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/college-football \ud83e\udd11 Free Sports Picks: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks \ud83d\udcca Live Odds: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds \ud83d\uddde\ufe0f News: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news \ud83d\udc4d Stay connected with WagerTalk \ud83d\udcfa YouTube: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tv \ud83d\udc4d Facebook: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/fb \ud83d\udc26 Twitter: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tw \ud83d\udcf8 Instagram: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ig \ud83d\udcf0 Reddit: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/rd \u2764\ufe0f iHeart Radio: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/iheart \ud83c\udf4e Apple Podcasts: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ap \ud83d\udccc Pinterest: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/pin\"><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/JSHG9Mnfezc\/0.jpg\"><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT4M59S\"><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2023-12-31T15:00:21Z\"><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rose Bowl Picks:  Can Michigan Prevail in the Semifinal?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Michigan dominated defensively, but there are some cracks in the offensive armor.\u00a0 Michigan ran 5.55 per carry in 2021 and 5.9 per carry in 2022.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They ran just 4.55 per carry this season, and for 169 yards per game, way down from their 230 yards per game in 2022.\u00a0 Both RB\u2019s were down this year.\u00a0 Corum ran 5.9 per carry in 2022 before he was hurt.\u00a0 This year he ran 4.7 per carry, but he did power his way to 24 rush TD\u2019s.\u00a0 In four comparable games his total came to 92-379, which is 4.1 per carry.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think he gets the job done near the endzone vs. this particular Alabama defense, but the overall figure might not be what Michigan had in mind.\u00a0 A bigger drop in performance came from RB Edwards, who routinely broke off long gainers in 2022, leading to a 7.1 per-carry average.\u00a0 This year\u2019s per-carry average was at 3.5!\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember when QB McCarthy did not throw a pass in the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> half of the Penn State game?\u00a0 This game will be different, as he\u2019ll need to throw to move the chains more consistently.\u00a0 Accuracy (74%) is not an issue.\u00a0 Like Alabama, there\u2019s a variety of targets.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Solid Wolverine Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In games 1-10 the Wolverines allowed a total of 75 points.\u00a0 Maryland and Ohio State each scored 24.\u00a0 Based on seasonal performances, Alabama might struggle to rush for 4.0 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 Like Michigan, they\u2019ll need to pass to make a dent on the score sheet.\u00a0 Until week eleven, no QB faced could be properly compared to this matchup.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maryland passed 21-31.\u00a0 Ohio State passed 18-30.\u00a0 For the season Michigan allowed 54.5%, as I expected.\u00a0 I believe Alabama will hit 60% or more in this game.\u00a0 The PK was 16-18.\u00a0 The overall sack ratio was 33-18, which is consistent with past performances.\u00a0 Other positive stats include a +5:37 time of possession edge, a 35-7 rush touchdown ratio, and a +17 turnover ratio.\u00a0 Michigan lost two fumbles all season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"548\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/eck231007001_mich_min-e1697804314348.jpg\" alt=\"rose bowl\" class=\"wp-image-24243\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/eck231007001_mich_min-e1697804314348.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/eck231007001_mich_min-e1697804314348-300x164.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/eck231007001_mich_min-e1697804314348-768x421.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rose Bowl Best Bets &#8211; The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Which QB will win through the air?&nbsp; Can Michigan\u2019s pass rush get through?&nbsp; I like Michigan\u2019s chances close to the goal line with Corum, but will either QB have success outside of the ten-yard line with a shortened field?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve seen so many bowl games in this bowl season be decided by who is the more motivated team.\u00a0 Opt-outs are changing (and ruining) the spirit of the bowl season.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think that applies to this game because Bo Nix is a different type of QB, and he is completely team-oriented.\u00a0 Instead, this game is all about how much strength of schedule matters.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CFP Semifinal Picks &amp; Predictions &#8211; The Rose Bowl<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Two things can be accurate at the same time.\u00a0 1<sup>st<\/sup>, Alabama does NOT belong here.\u00a0 I think Florida State would have been a better choice, but so would have Georgia (despite the loss) and Ohio State.\u00a0 The \u201crecency\u201d argument holds no water (sorry Committee) as Alabama did not get better as they said, unless you ignore the Auburn game, which of course you cannot.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> point is that Alabama IS the most feared matchup for the Wolverines, as not only does Nick Saban get five+ weeks to prepare, but the on-field matchups are tight.\u00a0 The biggest key is Michigan QB McCarthy.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The team got away with not passing vs. Penn State.\u00a0 I think the Michigan WR\u2019s will have to win in this game, as Corum and Edwards just didn\u2019t look the same in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Pick: Rose Bowl CFP Expert Betting Recommendation!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>My rush data slightly favors Michigan, and based solely on Power Numbers, Michigan has value.\u00a0 I don\u2019t have an official play, but I lean Michigan and lean UNDER in the 1<sup>st<\/sup> half.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>My player recommendations are to take Michigan QB McCarthy OVER his pass attempts total, and to consider Alabama QB Milne OVER his longest pass completion yardage figure.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for even more college football coverage?  Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk&#8217;s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s college football <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L2&amp;cb=0.4228145318819374\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/news\/football\/article\/2023-12-03\/2023-24-college-football-bowl-game-schedule-scores-tv-channels-times\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on<\/span> and anytime touchdown scorer odds. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide Best Bets : Rose Bowl CFP Analysis &amp; Predictions Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky\u00a0offers some killer betting picks on the college football playoff at the Rose Bowl being played on January 1st, between Michigan &amp; Alabama. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":23655,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2044],"tags":[8,5239,7916,7915,8096,8097,1088,5152,5151,11,8098],"class_list":["post-25407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football","tag-college-football-best-bets","tag-college-football-bowl-game-betting-advice","tag-college-football-bowl-game-preview","tag-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football-bowl-picks","tag-college-football-picks","tag-free-college-football-picks","tag-free-ncaaf-picks","tag-ncaaf","tag-ncaaf-predictions"],"basic_html":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide<strong> Best Bets<\/strong> : Rose Bowl CFP Analysis &amp; Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ronacesports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>\u00a0offers some killer betting picks on the college football playoff at the Rose Bowl being played on January 1st, between Michigan &amp; Alabama. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?  Find top predictions here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Alabama beat Georgia 27-24 in the SEC title game, making everyone magically forget how their playoff hopes should have ended with a loss the previous week to Auburn.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, the names on the jersey\u2019s matter.\u00a0 <strong>Off the field, Michigan and Coach Harbaugh were a mess.\u00a0 On the field, games 1-9 were routs, as was their title game vs. Iowa.\u00a0 We\u2019re past the point of arguing whether or not Alabama should be here.\u00a0 The new question is this: Can a Nick Saban team be defeated off 37 days rest?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Find free <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/college-football\">college football best bets<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks - <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/a.slack-edge.com\/production-standard-emoji-assets\/14.0\/google-medium\/1f6d2@2x.png\" alt=\":shopping_trolley:\">&nbsp;All FIRST TIME customers will receive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rose Bowl CFP Predictions and Best Bets:  Alabama Offense<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>For much of the 1<sup>st<\/sup> half of the season, Alabama and QB Milne were scrambling around, trying to find a rhythm.\u00a0 Alabama was sacked 43 times, but that figure improved late in the season.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Milne was 14-27 vs. Texas, 21-33 vs. A&amp;M, a better 15-22 vs. Kentucky, and 13-23 vs. Georgia.\u00a0 I can see him around 60% in this game.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I like the variety of weapons on the roster, but there\u2019s a lack of elite WR talent this time around.\u00a0 In five of the past seven seasons the Tide ran for 5.3 per carry or more.\u00a0 2023\u2019s number was 2<sup>nd<\/sup> worse at 4.65.\u00a0 The top two RB\u2019s averaged around 5.0, but recent numbers vs. the better defenses show some slowdown.\u00a0 I think we\u2019ll see closer to 4.0 in this spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alabama Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Alabama\u2019s 3.8 allowed per carry was a bit high by their standards.\u00a0 Texas ran 34-111.\u00a0 A&amp;M ran 35-70.\u00a0 Auburn ran 42.244.\u00a0 LSU was the other team that dominated on the ground, but using the other three as my best comparisons, were back to around 3.8 allowed per carry.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The pass defense shows a 59% completion rate by opponents, but this team has NFL talent in the secondary.\u00a0 They\u2019ll face a high percentage QB in McCarthy and I think 60+% is highly likely, but how many splash plays will be available?\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Kicking was excellent at 20-23.\u00a0 Alabama has a good pass rush (38 defensive sacks).\u00a0 The 3<sup>rd<\/sup> down success rate was nearly 47%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rose Bowl CFP Video Picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JSHG9Mnfezc?origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rose Bowl Picks:  Can Michigan Prevail in the Semifinal?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Michigan dominated defensively, but there are some cracks in the offensive armor.\u00a0 Michigan ran 5.55 per carry in 2021 and 5.9 per carry in 2022.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>They ran just 4.55 per carry this season, and for 169 yards per game, way down from their 230 yards per game in 2022.\u00a0 Both RB\u2019s were down this year.\u00a0 Corum ran 5.9 per carry in 2022 before he was hurt.\u00a0 This year he ran 4.7 per carry, but he did power his way to 24 rush TD\u2019s.\u00a0 In four comparable games his total came to 92-379, which is 4.1 per carry.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I think he gets the job done near the endzone vs. this particular Alabama defense, but the overall figure might not be what Michigan had in mind.\u00a0 A bigger drop in performance came from RB Edwards, who routinely broke off long gainers in 2022, leading to a 7.1 per-carry average.\u00a0 This year\u2019s per-carry average was at 3.5!\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Remember when QB McCarthy did not throw a pass in the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> half of the Penn State game?\u00a0 This game will be different, as he\u2019ll need to throw to move the chains more consistently.\u00a0 Accuracy (74%) is not an issue.\u00a0 Like Alabama, there\u2019s a variety of targets.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Solid Wolverine Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>In games 1-10 the Wolverines allowed a total of 75 points.\u00a0 Maryland and Ohio State each scored 24.\u00a0 Based on seasonal performances, Alabama might struggle to rush for 4.0 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 Like Michigan, they\u2019ll need to pass to make a dent on the score sheet.\u00a0 Until week eleven, no QB faced could be properly compared to this matchup.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Maryland passed 21-31.\u00a0 Ohio State passed 18-30.\u00a0 For the season Michigan allowed 54.5%, as I expected.\u00a0 I believe Alabama will hit 60% or more in this game.\u00a0 The PK was 16-18.\u00a0 The overall sack ratio was 33-18, which is consistent with past performances.\u00a0 Other positive stats include a +5:37 time of possession edge, a 35-7 rush touchdown ratio, and a +17 turnover ratio.\u00a0 Michigan lost two fumbles all season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/eck231007001_mich_min-e1697804314348.jpg\" alt=\"rose bowl\" class=\"wp-image-24243\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rose Bowl Best Bets - The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Which QB will win through the air?&nbsp; Can Michigan\u2019s pass rush get through?&nbsp; I like Michigan\u2019s chances close to the goal line with Corum, but will either QB have success outside of the ten-yard line with a shortened field?<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve seen so many bowl games in this bowl season be decided by who is the more motivated team.\u00a0 Opt-outs are changing (and ruining) the spirit of the bowl season.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think that applies to this game because Bo Nix is a different type of QB, and he is completely team-oriented.\u00a0 Instead, this game is all about how much strength of schedule matters.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CFP Semifinal Picks &amp; Predictions - The Rose Bowl<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Two things can be accurate at the same time.\u00a0 1<sup>st<\/sup>, Alabama does NOT belong here.\u00a0 I think Florida State would have been a better choice, but so would have Georgia (despite the loss) and Ohio State.\u00a0 The \u201crecency\u201d argument holds no water (sorry Committee) as Alabama did not get better as they said, unless you ignore the Auburn game, which of course you cannot.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>However, the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> point is that Alabama IS the most feared matchup for the Wolverines, as not only does Nick Saban get five+ weeks to prepare, but the on-field matchups are tight.\u00a0 The biggest key is Michigan QB McCarthy.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The team got away with not passing vs. Penn State.\u00a0 I think the Michigan WR\u2019s will have to win in this game, as Corum and Edwards just didn\u2019t look the same in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Pick: Rose Bowl CFP Expert Betting Recommendation!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>My rush data slightly favors Michigan, and based solely on Power Numbers, Michigan has value.\u00a0 I don\u2019t have an official play, but I lean Michigan and lean UNDER in the 1<sup>st<\/sup> half.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>My player recommendations are to take Michigan QB McCarthy OVER his pass attempts total, and to consider Alabama QB Milne OVER his longest pass completion yardage figure.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for even more college football coverage?  Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game - <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk's Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s college football <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L2&amp;cb=0.4228145318819374\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/news\/football\/article\/2023-12-03\/2023-24-college-football-bowl-game-schedule-scores-tv-channels-times\">NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul>\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p> <\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/46"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25407"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25407\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25413,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25407\/revisions\/25413"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23655"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}