Iowa State (ISU) was trending down after a rough couple of seasons.\u00a0 7-5 doesn\u2019t sound like much but the Cyclones did a few things right and there\u2019s renewed hope moving forward.\u00a0 Memphis and Cincinnati are similar to me.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both have more than just good football programs and in fact, have had historic runs in basketball.\u00a0 Timing is everything, and Cincinnati made it to the Power Five.\u00a0 Memphis had a strong year at 9-3, but no one is talking about them.\u00a0 This is an interesting game.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Find free college football best bets<\/a> and bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n ISU Improved from 3.85 yards-per-carry to 4.65 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 It should be noted that they stood at just 4.05 prior to the finale at Kansas State.\u00a0 RB Samu emerged, and could see workhorse action here.\u00a0 I\u2019ve charted him rushing 20-115, which is fluid depending on who plays alongside him (some injuries and two portal entries).\u00a0 Freshman QB Becht (63.5%, 20-8 ratio) was consistent all season long.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019ve charted him at 18-28 for 225 yards, but am concerned that the Cyclones may pass too much in this game.\u00a0 All WR\u2019s are slated to play, as are the starting five along the OL.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n The defense was decent (4.0) vs. the run and surprisingly strong against the pass (projected 61%, achieved 54.5%).\u00a0 The two areas which stood out are allowing just 11 rushing TD\u2019s, and securing a +8 interception ratio.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n They\u2019ll face a highly experienced QB and will likely allow 60+% in this spot. There are some injuries in the secondary that might affect team depth. \u00a0 ISU had a modest 21-12 sack ratio.\u00a0 Kicking was decent at 19-24.\u00a0 WR Noel has a strong kick return presence.\u00a0 The return defense is excellent. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Memphis is the home team in this matchup, which can be a positive indicator, especially since they get to host a Power Five school.\u00a0 ISU does travel well however, and in bowl games, tickets are distributed differently.\u00a0 QB Henigan has passed for over 10,000 yards in his career.\u00a0 Playing at home has to be a perk.\u00a0 I have him throwing for over 270 yards in this spot.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Memphis has put quite a few RB\u2019s in the NFL.\u00a0 2023 transfer RB Watson has over 3,000 career yards on the ground and he ran 5.9 per carry this season, with 14 TD\u2019s on the ground, and he also caught 50 passes for another three TD\u2019s.\u00a0 ISU could slow him down, but is unlikely to completely stop him.\u00a0 Two starting OL are in the portal.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n If they do not play, that might slightly lower expectations.\u00a0 Defensively, only the secondary will be impacted by injury and the portal.\u00a0 The DL is unaffected, but the rush defense slumped a full yard this past season to 4.75 allowed per carry (not adjusted for sacks).\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n The pass defense slightly improved, to 60.8%.\u00a0 Both teams might be able to move the ball in this game.\u00a0 Memphis had a modest 21-19 sack ratio.\u00a0 Their main kicker was 9-11.\u00a0 Their 3rd<\/sup> down success ratio was strong (offense and defense).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n ISU prevented rushing TD\u2019s, while the Memphis offense produced 30 rushing TD\u2019s.\u00a0 Who wins this battle?\u00a0 <\/strong>Memphis has the more experienced QB, but overall, the slightly weaker defense.\u00a0 The defensive gap might be more pronounced when one considers the strength of opponents faced.\u00a0 Can Memphis stop a Power Five team?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The data is close enough that any slight edge (Memphis) is not by itself meaningful.\u00a0 Home field bowl dogs are generally decent plays, but as noted above, ISU travels well.\u00a0 What I like about Memphis is their experience at QB and in the WR\/TE room, coupled with a strong run-pass balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I like the progress ISU made this year and I like the staff, but I\u2019ve never been a big fan of laying over a touchdown with this team.\u00a0 I\u2019m going to take the points (currently 9.5) and see what happens.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game – find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n WagerTalk\u2019s college football live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n **************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Iowa State Cyclones vs Memphis Tigers: Liberty Bowl Super Preview & Prediction Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky\u00a0offers his free analysis of The Liberty Bowl being played on December 29th, between Iowa State and Memphis. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Iowa State (ISU) was trending down after a rough couple […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":148,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2044],"tags":[8,5239,7916,7915,8096,8097,1088,5152,5151,11,8098],"class_list":["post-25357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football","tag-college-football-best-bets","tag-college-football-bowl-game-betting-advice","tag-college-football-bowl-game-preview","tag-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football-bowl-picks","tag-college-football-picks","tag-free-college-football-picks","tag-free-ncaaf-picks","tag-ncaaf","tag-ncaaf-predictions"],"basic_html":"\n Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>\u00a0offers his free analysis of The Liberty Bowl being played on December 29th, between Iowa State and Memphis. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Iowa State (ISU) was trending down after a rough couple of seasons.\u00a0 7-5 doesn\u2019t sound like much but the Cyclones did a few things right and there\u2019s renewed hope moving forward.\u00a0 Memphis and Cincinnati are similar to me.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Both have more than just good football programs and in fact, have had historic runs in basketball.\u00a0 Timing is everything, and Cincinnati made it to the Power Five.\u00a0 Memphis had a strong year at 9-3, but no one is talking about them.\u00a0 This is an interesting game.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Find free college football best bets<\/a> and bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n ISU Improved from 3.85 yards-per-carry to 4.65 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 It should be noted that they stood at just 4.05 prior to the finale at Kansas State.\u00a0 RB Samu emerged, and could see workhorse action here.\u00a0 I\u2019ve charted him rushing 20-115, which is fluid depending on who plays alongside him (some injuries and two portal entries).\u00a0 Freshman QB Becht (63.5%, 20-8 ratio) was consistent all season long.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n I\u2019ve charted him at 18-28 for 225 yards, but am concerned that the Cyclones may pass too much in this game.\u00a0 All WR\u2019s are slated to play, as are the starting five along the OL.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n The defense was decent (4.0) vs. the run and surprisingly strong against the pass (projected 61%, achieved 54.5%).\u00a0 The two areas which stood out are allowing just 11 rushing TD\u2019s, and securing a +8 interception ratio.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n They\u2019ll face a highly experienced QB and will likely allow 60+% in this spot. There are some injuries in the secondary that might affect team depth. \u00a0 ISU had a modest 21-12 sack ratio.\u00a0 Kicking was decent at 19-24.\u00a0 WR Noel has a strong kick return presence.\u00a0 The return defense is excellent. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Memphis is the home team in this matchup, which can be a positive indicator, especially since they get to host a Power Five school.\u00a0 ISU does travel well however, and in bowl games, tickets are distributed differently.\u00a0 QB Henigan has passed for over 10,000 yards in his career.\u00a0 Playing at home has to be a perk.\u00a0 I have him throwing for over 270 yards in this spot.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Memphis has put quite a few RB\u2019s in the NFL.\u00a0 2023 transfer RB Watson has over 3,000 career yards on the ground and he ran 5.9 per carry this season, with 14 TD\u2019s on the ground, and he also caught 50 passes for another three TD\u2019s.\u00a0 ISU could slow him down, but is unlikely to completely stop him.\u00a0 Two starting OL are in the portal.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n If they do not play, that might slightly lower expectations.\u00a0 Defensively, only the secondary will be impacted by injury and the portal.\u00a0 The DL is unaffected, but the rush defense slumped a full yard this past season to 4.75 allowed per carry (not adjusted for sacks).\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n The pass defense slightly improved, to 60.8%.\u00a0 Both teams might be able to move the ball in this game.\u00a0 Memphis had a modest 21-19 sack ratio.\u00a0 Their main kicker was 9-11.\u00a0 Their 3rd<\/sup> down success ratio was strong (offense and defense).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n ISU prevented rushing TD\u2019s, while the Memphis offense produced 30 rushing TD\u2019s.\u00a0 Who wins this battle?\u00a0 <\/strong>Memphis has the more experienced QB, but overall, the slightly weaker defense.\u00a0 The defensive gap might be more pronounced when one considers the strength of opponents faced.\u00a0 Can Memphis stop a Power Five team?<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n The data is close enough that any slight edge (Memphis) is not by itself meaningful.\u00a0 Home field bowl dogs are generally decent plays, but as noted above, ISU travels well.\u00a0 What I like about Memphis is their experience at QB and in the WR\/TE room, coupled with a strong run-pass balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n I like the progress ISU made this year and I like the staff, but I\u2019ve never been a big fan of laying over a touchdown with this team.\u00a0 I\u2019m going to take the points (currently 9.5) and see what happens.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game - find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n WagerTalk\u2019s college football live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNew Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks – Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"texas](\"https:\/\/a.slack-edge.com\/production-standard-emoji-assets\/14.0\/google-medium\/1f6d2@2x.png\")
All FIRST TIME customers will receive 15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\nLiberty Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Iowa State Overview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"liberty](\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/iowastate.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nLiberty Bowl Picks: Iowa State Has a Solid Defense and Good Kicking<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Liberty Bowl Best Bets – Take a Look at Memphis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Liberty Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Liberty Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The Pick: Liberty Bowl Prediction!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
WagerTalk’s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Iowa State Cyclones vs Memphis Tigers: Liberty Bowl Super Preview & Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks - Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
All FIRST TIME customers will receive 15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLiberty Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Iowa State Overview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\nLiberty Bowl Picks: Iowa State Has a Solid Defense and Good Kicking<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Liberty Bowl Best Bets - Take a Look at Memphis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Liberty Bowl Best Bets - The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Liberty Bowl - The Free Picks & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The Pick: Liberty Bowl Prediction!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
WagerTalk's Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n