{"id":25301,"date":"2023-12-26T18:04:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-26T23:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=25301"},"modified":"2023-12-26T13:16:36","modified_gmt":"2023-12-26T18:16:36","slug":"texas-am-oklahoma-state-texas-bowl-predictions-best-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/texas-am-oklahoma-state-texas-bowl-predictions-best-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M Free Picks: Texas Bowl Predictions, Best Bets 12\/27"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Texas A&M Aggies Best Bets: Texas Bowl Preview & Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>\u00a0rustles up some expert picks on The Texas Bowl being played on December 27th, between Oklahoma State and <\/strong>Texas A&M. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almost no one liked Oklahoma State\u2019s chances to go bowling.\u00a0 I was on the OVER (6 and 6.5 wins) because I loved the schedule layout, the easier opponents, and the staff continuity.\u00a0<\/strong> The Cowboys clearly used games 1-3 for experimentation purposes, but after that, they found the right QB\/RB combination and thrived.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conversely, I went UNDER A&M\u2019s season win total of 8.5\/8.\u00a0 Readers may remember my seasonal preview where I cautioned fans of this team to be patient, seeing 2024 as the year they would peak, with a clear top 15 possibility.\u00a0 No one is patient in the SEC.\u00a0 A&M is the poster child for change in college football.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Find free college football best bets<\/a> and bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Texas Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Oklahoma State Overview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Oklahoma State used three QB\u2019s and three RB\u2019s to start the season in an interesting, and actually quite impressive way to determine who they would turn to once Big 12 play commenced.\u00a0 I\u2019d say they made the right choice, as in Big 12 play, QB Bowman passed for 60%, albeit with just a 13-11 touchdown to interception ratio, while RB Gordon (just 19 carries games 1-3) ran 239-1,505, 6.3 per carry, with 18 rushing touchdowns (20 total).\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s an average of 26 carries per game.\u00a0 Unless he surprises and does not play, it\u2019s all systems go for the offense, which will only be without one of its top four targets.<\/strong>\u00a0 If this was a regular season game, I would project trouble for the Cowboys, at least in terms of finding a perfect offensive rhythm.\u00a0 A&M, as you will see below, will not be the same team for this bowl game.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most handicappers had the Cowboys regressing talentwise this season, and that showed up defensively.\u00a0 I projected a 4.5 run defense and 60% pass defense, numbers generally worse than in past seasons.\u00a0 Oklahoma State allowed 4.8 per carry and nearly 61% through the air.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The run defense will be challenged in this game, but maybe with the backup QB, the Cowboys with all the extra bowl practices can field a decent pass defense.\u00a0 There was no consistency in 2023, with four outings at 50% or less, and another four at 65% or much worse.\u00a0 It\u2019s also worth noting that their pass yards allowed per completion was way too high.\u00a0 The sack ratio was 25-13.\u00a0 Kicking was 26-32, suggesting that drives stalled in the red zone.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas Bowl Picks: Texas A&M Is Missing Folks..<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the season, A&M\u2019s numbers were decent.\u00a0 While they were just 1-5 vs. bowl teams (costing Fisher his job), losses were close, by six to Alabama, seven at Tennessee, and three at Mississippi.\u00a0 It doesn\u2019t matter that they were building for 2024, as now the roster has been shredded.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The offense underperformed, with a too low (for them) 4.15 yards-per-carry, but three QB\u2019s did produce a 64.7% figure, with 24 pass touchdowns.\u00a0 A skeleton staff will coach this bowl game, with the outgoing defensive coordinator staying on just for this game to be the main man.\u00a0 Offensively, five starters are confirmed out.\u00a0 3rd<\/sup> string QB Jaylen Henderson was 36-54 vs. LSU and Mississippi State, with a 4-1 ratio, showing some mobility.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These two defenses were not great, but maybe Oklahoma State\u2019s defense is only a modest step up in class.\u00a0 I think he is not much of a downgrade, but what concerns me is what coaches are left offensively to guide him.\u00a0 All three RB\u2019s remain, so the obvious game plan would be to feature the run vs. the suspect Cowboy defense.\u00a0 I\u2019m projecting 4.0 per carry in this spot, but more is possible.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A&M will be missing its top two WR\u2019s and at least two starting OL.\u00a0 The WR\u2019s will be missed, as both were capable of breaking long gainers.\u00a0 The OL allowed 28 sacks, but at least they face a modest Cowboy pass rush.\u00a0 Defensively, A&M will be without three starting DL, their top LB, and at least three starting DB\u2019s.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

By my count, A&M will have one quality starter at each line of defense, with the rest of the unit former role players for the most part.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure how the unit will perform overall, but I suspect a drop from the 3.6 per carry allowed, 58% pass defense, and 42 sacks achieved.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like Oklahoma State, A&M settled for too many field goal attempts (23-32).\u00a0 During the season this team only allowed seven rushing TD\u2019s.\u00a0 What will happen now?\u00a0 With so many defections, their already substandard kick return defense could be even more vulnerable.<\/strong>\u00a0 A&M had a solid + penalty ratio, but I can\u2019t see that being an edge here with all the new starters.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0Can Oklahoma State fully establish the run?\u00a0 If so, Bowman can pass on his terms.\u00a0 If not, he has been prone to turnovers.\u00a0 Which team can finish drives?\u00a0 I believe the Cowboys will still yield yards defensively, but can A&M\u2019s younger, less impactful WR\u2019s achieve success inside the twenty, and can the revamped OL open rush holes?\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A&M\u2019s sack production may be less than usual.\u00a0 Can the young, raw DB\u2019s hold up without such pressure?\u00a0 Does A&M even want to be here?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At full strength (which is laughable here, and throughout this bowl season), A&M has a 10.5 Power Number edge and a point stat analysis edge (barely), but would NOT have been the rush pick.\u00a0 T<\/p>\n\n\n\n

he line has started to go below three points now.\u00a0 If forced to make a play, I would LEAN A&M<\/strong>, but as we\u2019ve seen, teams without motivation (Syracuse, especially without their QB), can be bad bowl bets.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think A&M runs well enough in this game to give them a chance, but I\u2019ll probably pass on a play, because I can\u2019t trust at least seven new defensive starters to contain Gordon and the Cowboy\u2019s offense.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pick: Texas Bowl Prediction!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Consider Oklahoma State WR Presley OVER his receiving yardage.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game – find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n