Last year at this time it was felt that USC hit a home run hiring Lincoln Riley, even with their defensive issues.\u00a0 The buzz around Riley has faded, but maybe it\u2019s because the expectations were unreasonable.\u00a0 I had a \u201cdown\u201d year in season win total success, at approximately 29-14.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Louisville was one of my misses, and this loss was well deserved.\u00a0 There were some close calls, but overall, this team earned its way to ten wins.<\/strong>\u00a0 This is the Holiday Bowl, one of the more prestigious games each December, yet USC doesn\u2019t care that much, and Louisville, who should be excited, has some star players opting out.\u00a0 What a shame.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Find free college football best bets<\/a> and bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Like with the previous bowl writeup. I\u2019m compelled to analyze what effect all the missing players will have on the game.\u00a0 For Louisville, they will be missing lead WR James Thrash, lead RB Jawhar Jordan, and two decent defensive players.\u00a0<\/strong> The next man up at RB is Issac Guerendo, who himself ran for nearly six yards per carry.\u00a0 The drop-off may only be slight.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Losing Thrash hurts more, as his 63 receptions were more than double of the next option (26).\u00a0 USC has seen 16 players either hit the portal or opt out, and that number could rise.\u00a0 Notable names include presumed #1 QB in the 2024 NFL draft Caleb Williams, lead RB MarShawn Lloyd, plus solid WR and deep threat Brendan Rice.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Most of the other players lost were once high impact signees whose best days are ahead of them.\u00a0 The loss of Lloyd is significant unless a new RB emerges behind decent #2 option Austin Jones.\u00a0 USC has a variety of pass catchers, but depth has been compromised, and Rice\u2019s impact may be missed.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n As for QB, I think the raw Mitch Moss will do okay in Riley\u2019s system, but you can\u2019t just replace someone like Caleb Williams<\/strong>.\u00a0 USC\u2019s defense was again subpar in 2023, but like Louisville, the losses on this side of the ball are of lower impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n QB Plummer is projected to hit about 65% in this game, but must cut down his interceptions.\u00a0 USC is undergoing coaching turnover, so maybe he stays turnover-free vs. a defense that intercepted just six passes.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Louisville easily bettered my 4.4 rush defense projection, allowing just 3.55 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 With Lloyd out, that frees this team to spend a bit more time defensing the pass.\u00a0 QB\u2019s faced this year pale in comparison to Caleb Williams, but give Louisville credit for allowing only 54.3%.\u00a0 Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) went 22-38, tossing three defensive interceptions.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Miami passed 24-39.\u00a0 Yes, I do know that Caleb isn\u2019t here, but USC\u2019s scheme is good enough to hit 60% in this spot.\u00a0 The key will be to force mistakes from the young replacement.\u00a0 The PK was average at 18-25.\u00a0 Parts of the special team unit are below par.\u00a0 The 3rd<\/sup> down defense was excellent during the regular season, allowing just a 28% conversion rate.\u00a0 Despite the inflated odds, Louisville is the rush pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n USC once again averaged over five yards-per-carry (5.15), but I think it was more scheme related rather than true RB talent, even with Lloyd.\u00a0 I think we\u2019ll see regression in yards running in this spot.\u00a0 Moss has at least two solid WR targets to throw to, so it\u2019s up to the innovative offensive staff to make this work.\u00a0 Not noted above is that Louisville had a 34-29 sack ratio.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n USC\u2019s ratio is 27-33, which is flipped from 2022.\u00a0 Given USC has the \u201cnew\u201d QB, pass protection could be an issue.\u00a0 Defensively, we all know USC has issues but remember, the PAC 12 was loaded with offensive talent this season.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Facing Washington, Oregon and UCLA to close 2023 was never going to be easy.\u00a0 Still, USC allowed 34 points to an average Utah offense, and 49 points to a much-improved Cal offense, but that number shows USC\u2019s breakdowns<\/strong>.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n My comps for this game are Notre Dame and Arizona.\u00a0 In those two games, USC allowed 89 points, 69-332 running, and 38-55 passing.\u00a0 USC\u2019s seasonal numbers were 35 points allowed, 5.05-190.5 on the ground, and nearly 63% through the air.\u00a0 I don\u2019t see USC magically improving on defense in this short period of time, so they need to have at least one interception, plus hope that the Cardinals are not as proficient running the ball without their lead back.\u00a0 USC allowed 31 pass TD\u2019s.\u00a0 WR Branch is a dynamic punt returner (now they just need to force some punts).\u00a0 The PK was 10-13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Will USC take this game seriously? How will QB Moss fare? Defend Louisville\u2019s pass rush and there\u2019s hope. If not, this could be problematic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I don\u2019t think USC \u201cearned\u201d this Holiday Bowl berth. This team is athletic, but incomplete. Louisville maintains its rush edge with both #1 RB options out for this game. QB Moss is the X factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0I\u2019ll side with a token play on Louisville, but the line of more than seven does not interest me all that much.\u00a0 I wish there was a better recommendation for games like this, but welcome to the 2023 bowl season, where handicapping QB\u2019s with virtually no playing experience is happening all too often.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game – find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n WagerTalk\u2019s college football live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n **************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Louisville Cardinals vs USC Trojans Best Bets: Holiday Bowl Preview & Prediction Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky\u00a0sips on a martini on the beach and drops expert picks on The Holiday Bowl being played on December 27th, between Louisville and USC. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Last year at this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":23025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2044],"tags":[8,5239,7916,7915,8096,8097,1088,5152,5151,11,8098],"class_list":["post-25295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football","tag-college-football-best-bets","tag-college-football-bowl-game-betting-advice","tag-college-football-bowl-game-preview","tag-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football-bowl-picks","tag-college-football-picks","tag-free-college-football-picks","tag-free-ncaaf-picks","tag-ncaaf","tag-ncaaf-predictions"],"basic_html":"\n Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>\u00a0sips on a martini on the beach and drops expert picks on The Holiday Bowl being played on December 27th, between Louisville and <\/strong>USC. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Last year at this time it was felt that USC hit a home run hiring Lincoln Riley, even with their defensive issues.\u00a0 The buzz around Riley has faded, but maybe it\u2019s because the expectations were unreasonable.\u00a0 I had a \u201cdown\u201d year in season win total success, at approximately 29-14.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Louisville was one of my misses, and this loss was well deserved.\u00a0 There were some close calls, but overall, this team earned its way to ten wins.<\/strong>\u00a0 This is the Holiday Bowl, one of the more prestigious games each December, yet USC doesn\u2019t care that much, and Louisville, who should be excited, has some star players opting out.\u00a0 What a shame.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Find free college football best bets<\/a> and bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Like with the previous bowl writeup. I\u2019m compelled to analyze what effect all the missing players will have on the game.\u00a0 For Louisville, they will be missing lead WR James Thrash, lead RB Jawhar Jordan, and two decent defensive players.\u00a0<\/strong> The next man up at RB is Issac Guerendo, who himself ran for nearly six yards per carry.\u00a0 The drop-off may only be slight.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Losing Thrash hurts more, as his 63 receptions were more than double of the next option (26).\u00a0 USC has seen 16 players either hit the portal or opt out, and that number could rise.\u00a0 Notable names include presumed #1 QB in the 2024 NFL draft Caleb Williams, lead RB MarShawn Lloyd, plus solid WR and deep threat Brendan Rice.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Most of the other players lost were once high impact signees whose best days are ahead of them.\u00a0 The loss of Lloyd is significant unless a new RB emerges behind decent #2 option Austin Jones.\u00a0 USC has a variety of pass catchers, but depth has been compromised, and Rice\u2019s impact may be missed.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n As for QB, I think the raw Mitch Moss will do okay in Riley\u2019s system, but you can\u2019t just replace someone like Caleb Williams<\/strong>.\u00a0 USC\u2019s defense was again subpar in 2023, but like Louisville, the losses on this side of the ball are of lower impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n QB Plummer is projected to hit about 65% in this game, but must cut down his interceptions.\u00a0 USC is undergoing coaching turnover, so maybe he stays turnover-free vs. a defense that intercepted just six passes.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Louisville easily bettered my 4.4 rush defense projection, allowing just 3.55 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 With Lloyd out, that frees this team to spend a bit more time defensing the pass.\u00a0 QB\u2019s faced this year pale in comparison to Caleb Williams, but give Louisville credit for allowing only 54.3%.\u00a0 Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) went 22-38, tossing three defensive interceptions.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Miami passed 24-39.\u00a0 Yes, I do know that Caleb isn\u2019t here, but USC\u2019s scheme is good enough to hit 60% in this spot.\u00a0 The key will be to force mistakes from the young replacement.\u00a0 The PK was average at 18-25.\u00a0 Parts of the special team unit are below par.\u00a0 The 3rd<\/sup> down defense was excellent during the regular season, allowing just a 28% conversion rate.\u00a0 Despite the inflated odds, Louisville is the rush pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n USC once again averaged over five yards-per-carry (5.15), but I think it was more scheme related rather than true RB talent, even with Lloyd.\u00a0 I think we\u2019ll see regression in yards running in this spot.\u00a0 Moss has at least two solid WR targets to throw to, so it\u2019s up to the innovative offensive staff to make this work.\u00a0 Not noted above is that Louisville had a 34-29 sack ratio.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n USC\u2019s ratio is 27-33, which is flipped from 2022.\u00a0 Given USC has the \u201cnew\u201d QB, pass protection could be an issue.\u00a0 Defensively, we all know USC has issues but remember, the PAC 12 was loaded with offensive talent this season.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Facing Washington, Oregon and UCLA to close 2023 was never going to be easy.\u00a0 Still, USC allowed 34 points to an average Utah offense, and 49 points to a much-improved Cal offense, but that number shows USC\u2019s breakdowns<\/strong>.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n My comps for this game are Notre Dame and Arizona.\u00a0 In those two games, USC allowed 89 points, 69-332 running, and 38-55 passing.\u00a0 USC\u2019s seasonal numbers were 35 points allowed, 5.05-190.5 on the ground, and nearly 63% through the air.\u00a0 I don\u2019t see USC magically improving on defense in this short period of time, so they need to have at least one interception, plus hope that the Cardinals are not as proficient running the ball without their lead back.\u00a0 USC allowed 31 pass TD\u2019s.\u00a0 WR Branch is a dynamic punt returner (now they just need to force some punts).\u00a0 The PK was 10-13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Will USC take this game seriously? How will QB Moss fare? Defend Louisville\u2019s pass rush and there\u2019s hope. If not, this could be problematic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n I don\u2019t think USC \u201cearned\u201d this Holiday Bowl berth. This team is athletic, but incomplete. Louisville maintains its rush edge with both #1 RB options out for this game. QB Moss is the X factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n \u00a0I\u2019ll side with a token play on Louisville, but the line of more than seven does not interest me all that much.\u00a0 I wish there was a better recommendation for games like this, but welcome to the 2023 bowl season, where handicapping QB\u2019s with virtually no playing experience is happening all too often.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game - find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n WagerTalk\u2019s college football live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNew Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks – Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\":shopping_trolley:\"](\"https:\/\/a.slack-edge.com\/production-standard-emoji-assets\/14.0\/google-medium\/1f6d2@2x.png\")
All FIRST TIME customers will receive 15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\nHoliday Bowl Preview: The Portal Factor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Holiday Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Louisville Overview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Holiday Bowl Picks: USC Strengths and Weaknesses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"holiday](\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/dct231014006_lou_at_pitt-e1700853919638.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nHoliday Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Holiday Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The Pick: Holiday Bowl Prediction!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
WagerTalk’s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Louisville Cardinals vs USC Trojans Best Bets: Holiday Bowl Preview & Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks - Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
All FIRST TIME customers will receive 15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHoliday Bowl Preview: The Portal Factor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Holiday Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Louisville Overview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Holiday Bowl Picks: USC Strengths and Weaknesses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\nHoliday Bowl Best Bets - The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Holiday Bowl - The Free Picks & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The Pick: Holiday Bowl Prediction!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
WagerTalk's Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n