{"id":25287,"date":"2023-12-26T04:37:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-26T09:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=25287"},"modified":"2023-12-24T08:47:07","modified_gmt":"2023-12-24T13:47:07","slug":"guaranteed-rate-bowl-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/guaranteed-rate-bowl-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Guaranteed Rate Bowl Free Picks : Kansas vs UNLV Free Picks, Best Bets 12\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Kansas Jayhawks vs. <\/strong>UNLV Rebels Best Bets: Guaranteed Rate Bowl<\/strong> Preview & Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>\u00a0offers high interest picks on The Guaranteed Rate Bowl being played on December 26th, between Kansas and UNLV. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kansas is building something sustainable under solid Head Coach Lance Leipold.\u00a0 They went 8-4, and my guess is they can\u2019t wait to play football again in 2024 in the newly configured Big 12.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for UNLV, Barry Odom came in and won right off the bat.\u00a0 Much of the schedule was kind, but no one expected anything close to nine wins.\u00a0 Phoenix hosts an under the radar matchup between two teams who want<\/strong> to be here.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Find free college football best bets<\/a> and bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Guaranteed Rate Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Kansas Overview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Kansas continues to be ahead of the curve offensively.\u00a0 Only Texas and Texas Tech held them below 27 points, yet even in those two games Kansas combined to run for 70-332, or nearly 4.75 per carry.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

They ran 5.6-217 yards per game overall despite playing without their elite QB for about half the season.\u00a0 QB Bean (61%, 12-4 ratio) lacks the same run skill set as does Daniels, but the two RB\u2019s they have combined for 1,808 yards and 23 rushing touchdowns.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This looks like another game where Kansas will threaten 6.0 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 Therefore, I only project Bean to attempt 24 passes, which is dangerous for a bowl game projection (teams like to air it out more in bowl games), but fits what Kansas wants to do, which is break through and win a bowl game.\u00a0 With four new DL, I projected Kansas to slip a bit to 5.1 yards allowed per carry.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The defense has noticeably not improved as fast as the offense, which often happens for rebuilding teams.\u00a0 Kansas allowed 4.8 per carry, about the same as in 2022.\u00a0 UNLV will have run lanes open in this game.\u00a0 The pass defense also regressed, to 66% allowed.\u00a0 That makes it somewhat surprising that the Jayhawks allowed 27 or fewer points eight times.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A couple of potent offenses were held below normal scoring averages.\u00a0 Their sack ratio stayed decent at 25-15.\u00a0 Kicking was average at 11-15.\u00a0 The biggest issue with personnel is along the OL.\u00a0 A freshman will start at left tackle, and two other OL have injury concerns.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guaranteed Rate Bowl Picks: UNLV Strengths and Weaknesses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UNLV was showing signs of life in 2022 and only missed a bowl game due to a late season slide.\u00a0 I thought the staff could have been given one more year to build on 2022\u2019s \u201csuccess\u201d but Odom was an upgrade and UNLV never looked back.\u00a0 The rush ratio actually stayed flat, but UNLV has three capable RB\u2019s whose rotation tends to vary from week to week.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

QB Maiva became more efficient (63%) and this is not a daunting challenge, facing a Kansas defense that still is a work in progress.\u00a0 Yes, UNLV\u2019s schedule was not all that difficult, but they scored 24 or more points in all but one regular season game (Michigan).\u00a0 Kansas and their rush attack will be problematic.\u00a0 UNLV for the season allowed 4.4 per carry, which is decent for them, but vs. Air Force and SJ St, two very powerful rush teams, the total was 101-579.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

UNLV\u2019s pass defense (61%) was acceptable.\u00a0 Fresno passed 27-41.\u00a0 SJ St passed 19-26.\u00a0 Those are my two comparisons, which means Kansas could have decent success in the pass game, complementing their run game.\u00a0 UNLV has one of the best return specialists in the nation.\u00a0 They also have a kicker who was 25-27.\u00a0 In more good news, the sack ratio was 25-19.\u00a0 The other concerns include a pass defense that allowed a way too high yards-per-completion figure, and a somewhat undisciplined team with a -200 penalty yard differential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"guaranteed<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Guaranteed Rate Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Will either team stop the run?\u00a0 Which team will have more success in play-action passing, knowing that the defenses have to cheat up vs. the run?\u00a0 Will UNLV\u2019s special team edge make a difference?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guaranteed Rate Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Kansas has the better QB and the best RB in this game, while UNLV has the best WR (White) and the better kicking game.\u00a0 My Power Ratings suggest that the spread of 12.5 is fairly accurate (my number is 11), but the rush and point data suggest UNLV is the right side<\/strong>.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of me feels like Kansas will hardly have to punt in this game, as QB Bean is pretty good, and the run game is way too efficient to have an issue, but I can\u2019t discount the data, and it says UNLV will move the ball as well.\u00a0 I\u2019m slightly worried that QB Maiva could throw in a poor outing, but even with a big lead this matchup is suited to enable UNLV to backdoor cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pick: Guaranteed Rate Bowl Prediction!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0I\u2019ll take UNLV to cover the spread, but predict Kansas gets that elusive bowl win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game – find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

WagerTalk’s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

WagerTalk\u2019s college football live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n