{"id":25278,"date":"2023-12-25T19:17:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-26T00:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=25278"},"modified":"2024-06-12T10:26:40","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T14:26:40","slug":"first-responder-bowl-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/first-responder-bowl-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"First Responder Bowl Predictions : Rice vs Texas State Free Picks, Best Bets 12\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Rice Owls vs Texas State Bobcats Best Bets: First Responder Bowl<\/strong><\/strong> Preview & Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a> offers life-saving picks on The First Responder Bowl being played on December 26th, between Rice and Texas <\/strong>State. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rice went to a bowl game last year, but only because not enough 6-6 teams qualified.  Texas State changed coaches and the points on both sides of the ball went wild.  Fans of both schools may attend due to the site of the game, but I doubt there will be much national interest.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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First Responder Bowl<\/strong> Predictions and Best Bets: Rice Overview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The biggest difference this year is that Rice improved mightily defending the run, down to 4.15 per carry.  That\u2019s pretty much uncharted territory for the Owls.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

TD passes allowed were reduced from 29 to 17, with all of this leading to a point defense that was better by eight per game.  Rice had to use their backup QB much of 2023, but Padgett improved his accuracy and should find holes in the Texas State pass defense.  I project close to 65%, and 225 or even more passing yards.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Luke McCaffrey is expected to play in this game and he\u2019s primed for a potentially big game.  Stopping Texas State will not be easy.  I like Rice\u2019s chances this year more than in the past several seasons, but the type of offense Texas State runs is not easy to defend.  Rice was -15 in turnover margin in 2022.  The number was still in the negative (-7) this year, thanks to only five defensive interceptions.  Kicking was at 8-12.  The sack ratio was 21-25.  Rice has a good return specialist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First Responder Bowl<\/strong> Picks: Texas State Strengths and Weaknesses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The new offense was a success, and it wasn\u2019t just via the pass game.  The Bobcats scored 31 or more points eight times thanks to a 4.65 yards-per-carry offense, coupled with much improved QB play.  RB Mahdi ran for 1,209 yards, at 6.1 per carry, and with ten touchdowns.  Much traveled QB Finley hit nearly 69% and stretched the field.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s talent at WR, but Joey Hobert, their best wideout, is not listed on the most recent depth chart.  They have decent depth, which will help if he\u2019s truly gone.  The run defense was decent at 4.1 allowed per carry, but the 2022 run defense was at 3.5.  The pass defense remained the same, at 65%.  As a result, opponents converted 48% of their 3rd<\/sup> down opportunities.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like Rice, defensive interceptions (6) were few and far between.  That led to their turnover ratio of -8.  The Bobcats have a leaky kick return defense, which could spell trouble.  They were a bit undisciplined under the new staff, with a penalty yardage disadvantage.  Kicking was perfect at 14-14.  The sack ratio improved under the new staff, from 27-27 to this year\u2019s 36-27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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First Responder Bowl<\/strong> Best Bets – The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Can Rice stop this high-octane offense?  Can Texas State play better vs. the pass?  How does Rice prevent RB Mahdi from having a big game?  How does Texas State prevent McCaffrey from having a big game.  Can Rice break a big kick return?  Will either team have a fan support advantage or will fans not care about a game played the day after Christmas?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First Responder Bowl<\/strong> – The Free Picks & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The rushing data favors Texas State, but the point stat data favors Rice.  Rice has one negative situational indicator.  Both QB\u2019s should have success, as should WR McCaffrey and RB Mahdi.  There\u2019s high variance with how Texas State has performed week to week, and that has me scared in picking a side.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think Rice needs to win the return game to make this work, but I\u2019m just not crazy laying points with such an erratic team (Texas State).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pick: First Responder Bowl<\/strong> Prediction!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Recommendations: I think this could be a showcase for Christian McCaffrey\u2019s younger brother.  Take Luke OVER in his combined rushing and receiving yards.  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game – find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n