{"id":25220,"date":"2023-12-21T17:42:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-21T22:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=25220"},"modified":"2023-12-20T11:49:05","modified_gmt":"2023-12-20T16:49:05","slug":"gasparilla-bowl-predictions-best-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/gasparilla-bowl-predictions-best-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"Gasparilla Bowl Predictions : Georgia Tech vs UCF Free Picks, Best Bets 12\/22"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. UCF Golden Knights Best Bets: Gasparilla Bowl<\/strong> Preview & Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>\u00a0takes off his eyepatch and drops brilliant sunny tips on The Gasparilla Bowl<\/strong> being played on December 22nd, between UCF and Georgia Tech<\/strong>. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Georgia Tech was a money-making dog this season, going 7-1 vs. the spread, and 4-4 straight-up in that role.\u00a0 6-6 for them feels like a step in the right direction.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

UCF also went 6-6, but they did it despite going 1-5-1 vs. the spread as a favorite, and just 4-3 straight up.\u00a0 They might have mixed emotions about finishing 6-6, but they were the only Big 12 newcomer to garner a bowl bid.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

UCF beat Georgia Tech in September, 2022 but plenty of changes have happened for both schools since then.\u00a0 This looks to be an intriguing bowl matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Find free college football best bets<\/a> and bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Gasparilla Bowl<\/strong> Predictions and Best Bets: UCF Overview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UCF had two straight seasons where they rushed for 5.5 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 The move to the Big 12 was seamless in this regard, as they ran 5.75 per carry and 235 yards per game.\u00a0 Two RB\u2019s exceeded six yards per carry, with lead RB Harvey rushing for 1,296 yards and 16 touchdowns.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

QB Plumtree is a run threat as well.\u00a0 He missed three full games and most of a 4th<\/sup> game, but still ran for 473 yards, a year after he ran for 862 yards.\u00a0 He\u2019s fairly accurate as a passer, but can be turnover-prone.\u00a0 I project RB Harvey at 19-121, and Plumtree and #2 RB Richardson will likely combine to push UCF\u2019s run total over 200, and maybe much more.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I show Plumtree passing in excess of 200 yards, so suffice to say we will see plenty of offense in this game.\u00a0 UCF\u2019s 3rd<\/sup> down offensive success rate was great at 50%.\u00a0 The skilled position players have plenty of experience, and the WR\u2019s have strong per-reception averages.\u00a0 The overall unit (WR\u2019s and TE\u2019s) appears to be underrated.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Defense Regressed, Kicking Isn’t Great<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UCF\u2019s run defense regressed a bit in their move to the Big 12.\u00a0 They allowed 5.1-193 yards per game overall, and in Big 12 play, the numbers were 5.55-216 yards per game.\u00a0 The area in which UCF is strongest is vs. the pass, but a deeper dive has the numbers a bit deceiving.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The overall figure was a solid 57.5%, but they allowed 62% in Big 12 play.\u00a0 UCF has a 27-22 sack ratio, but kicking was a bit erratic, at 12-19.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gasparilla Bowl<\/strong> Picks: Georgia Tech Strengths and Weaknesses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Georgia Tech (GT) had a rare down year rushing the ball in 2022 but more than made up for it this year, with a stat sheet of 5.45-199 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 QB Haynes King ran at 6.0 per carry, with 9 TD\u2019s.\u00a0 Lead RB Jamal Haynes ran for 931 yards, 6.0 per carry, and 7 TD\u2019s.\u00a0 Run lanes will be open in this game (see UCF notes) and both players could thrive.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the pass game, King hit 62%, and threw for 26 TD\u2019s, a major accomplishment for this team.\u00a0 Unfortunately, he also had 15 interceptions.\u00a0 UCF has one of the better pass defenses he will have seen, so this could be an issue.\u00a0 My overall projections are 42-240 in the run game and near 60% in the pass game, for just under 200 yards.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

More Bad Defense!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

GT\u2019s run defense has been too high of late, allowing close to five yards per carry.\u00a0 It was worse in 2023, at an abysmal 5.65-227 yards per game, including 28 rushing TD\u2019s.\u00a0 I suspect they will have their hands full with UCF\u2019s rush attack.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

GT\u2019s pass defense also regressed (62%).\u00a0 Seven of nine bowl teams they faced scored at least 31 points, which makes sense as the stop unit was subpar.\u00a0 GT only had 18 defensive sacks, and to make matters worse, their leading sacker (6) is in the transfer portal.\u00a0 In better news, kicking woes seem to have subsided, as they posted a 14-16 success rate.\u00a0 GT\u2019s kick return defense was well below average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gasparilla Bowl<\/strong> Best Bets – The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Which team will play better defense?\u00a0 Will UCF\u2019s experience be the difference-maker.\u00a0 GT loves the underdog role.\u00a0 Should anyone be favored in this game?\u00a0 Which QB will commit a costly turnover?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gasparilla Bowl<\/strong> – The Free Picks & Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UCF opened as a 4.5 point favorite, with a total of 61.  The total was quickly bet up, a move that I fully agree with (my play is over 62).<\/strong>  In an offensive shootout (hopefully), it\u2019s hard to give points, especially when both teams have enough run-pass balance to take advantage of each other\u2019s defenses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pick: Gasparilla Bowl<\/strong> Prediction!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The data supports UCF however, and I think they will hit bigger pass plays, which might be the difference.\u00a0 I\u2019ll lean their way, not wanting to give over three points.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This game could come down to two things: Which team stays turnover-free, and which defense makes that one key stop.\u00a0 Take a close look at the possible totals overs – be it points or player props – if the defense is as bad as we suspect, could be some value in those bets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game – find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

WagerTalk’s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

WagerTalk\u2019s college football live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n