{"id":25110,"date":"2023-12-15T21:02:24","date_gmt":"2023-12-16T02:02:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=25110"},"modified":"2023-12-15T21:02:27","modified_gmt":"2023-12-16T02:02:27","slug":"new-mexico-bowl-best-bets-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/new-mexico-bowl-best-bets-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"New Mexico Bowl Best Bets: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State Predictions – College Football 12\/16"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

New Mexico Bowl Preview & Free Picks: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State Best Bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a> offers his tips on the New Mexico Bowl being played on December 16th, between Fresno State and New Mexico State. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was quite a season for Fresno State.  They started 2-0, but in both games, they had a win probability of well under 50% during the 4th<\/sup> quarter.  They continued to win close games and stood at 8-1 before losing their last three games, including one to lowly New Mexico.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jerry Kill worked wonders with New Mexico State in 2022, and did even better this season.  They went 10-4, winning eight in a row before losing in the CUSA title game to undefeated Liberty.  This should be a fun one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Find free college football best bets<\/a> and bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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New Mexico Bowl Picks and Best Bets: Fresno State Preview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fresno likely was overvalued for much of 2023 but that doesn\u2019t explain their sudden three-game losing streak.  I like QB Keene, and the two RB\u2019s have a chance at putting up some solid numbers facing an Aggie defense that played a rather soft schedule.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fresno is capable of running for 5.0 per carry if they decide to run the ball more often than they have been.  Their top five pass-catchers had 35 or more receptions.  Three of the top four are seniors, so Fresno has plenty of passing game experience.  Advantage, Bulldogs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fresno State Defensive Numbers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fresno\u2019s defense regressed a bit in 2023, allowing 4.55 yards per carry, corrected for sacks using my rush stat formula (I use the formula for the top five conferences, plus the Mountain West).  New Mexico state has one of the best run offenses in the NCAA and that is their edge.  In fact, the Aggies ran 170 yards or more in every game this season.  Fresno is a tough team to pass on, but a closer inspection shows that they did not face a particularly tough slate of opposing QB\u2019s.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Aggies could have modest success in this spot.  Despite the slant in terms of passing first over running, Fresno boasts a +10 turnover ratio, aided by 16 defensive interceptions.  The sack ratio was mediocre at 26-30.  Two more Fresno notes.  1st<\/sup>, their Power Number dropped ten points during their last seven games, indicating some weakness.  2nd<\/sup>, their conversion rate offensively on 3rd<\/sup> down is solid, at over 46%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Mexico Bowl Betting Tips<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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