{"id":25110,"date":"2023-12-15T21:02:24","date_gmt":"2023-12-16T02:02:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=25110"},"modified":"2023-12-15T21:02:27","modified_gmt":"2023-12-16T02:02:27","slug":"new-mexico-bowl-best-bets-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/new-mexico-bowl-best-bets-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"New Mexico Bowl Best Bets: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State Predictions &#8211; College Football 12\/16"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Preview &amp; Free Picks: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State Best Bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ronacesports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>&nbsp;offers his tips on the New Mexico Bowl being played on December 16th, between Fresno State and New Mexico State. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It was quite a season for Fresno State.&nbsp; They started 2-0, but in both games, they had a win probability of well under 50% during the 4<sup>th<\/sup> quarter.&nbsp; They continued to win close games and stood at 8-1 before losing their last three games, including one to lowly New Mexico.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jerry Kill worked wonders with New Mexico State in 2022, and did even better this season.&nbsp; They went 10-4, winning eight in a row before losing in the CUSA title game to undefeated Liberty.&nbsp; This should be a fun one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Find free <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/college-football\">college football best bets<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/a.slack-edge.com\/production-standard-emoji-assets\/14.0\/google-medium\/1f6d2@2x.png\" alt=\":shopping_trolley:\">&nbsp;All FIRST TIME customers will receive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-fe48e5de wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-black-color has-luminous-vivid-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\"><strong>Get 15% Off All Premium Bowl Picks<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Picks and Best Bets:  Fresno State Preview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fresno likely was overvalued for much of 2023 but that doesn\u2019t explain their sudden three-game losing streak.&nbsp; I like QB Keene, and the two RB\u2019s have a chance at putting up some solid numbers facing an Aggie defense that played a rather soft schedule.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fresno is capable of running for 5.0 per carry if they decide to run the ball more often than they have been.&nbsp; Their top five pass-catchers had 35 or more receptions.&nbsp; Three of the top four are seniors, so Fresno has plenty of passing game experience.&nbsp; Advantage, Bulldogs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"411\" height=\"250\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1fresnostate.png\" alt=\"new mexico bowl\" class=\"wp-image-25114\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1fresnostate.png 411w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1fresnostate-300x182.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 411px) 100vw, 411px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fresno State Defensive Numbers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fresno\u2019s defense regressed a bit in 2023, allowing 4.55 yards per carry, corrected for sacks using my rush stat formula (I use the formula for the top five conferences, plus the Mountain West).&nbsp; New Mexico state has one of the best run offenses in the NCAA and that is their edge.&nbsp; In fact, the Aggies ran 170 yards or more in every game this season.&nbsp; Fresno is a tough team to pass on, but a closer inspection shows that they did not face a particularly tough slate of opposing QB\u2019s.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Aggies could have modest success in this spot.&nbsp; Despite the slant in terms of passing first over running, Fresno boasts a +10 turnover ratio, aided by 16 defensive interceptions.&nbsp; The sack ratio was mediocre at 26-30.&nbsp; Two more Fresno notes.&nbsp; 1<sup>st<\/sup>, their Power Number dropped ten points during their last seven games, indicating some weakness.&nbsp; 2<sup>nd<\/sup>, their conversion rate offensively on 3<sup>rd<\/sup> down is solid, at over 46%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Betting Tips<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"epyt-video-wrapper\"><div  style=\"display: block; margin: 0px auto;\"  id=\"_ytid_75231\"  width=\"870\" height=\"489\"  data-origwidth=\"870\" data-origheight=\"489\" data-facadesrc=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/icFhYpIRtZY?enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/legacy.winnersandwhiners.com&#038;autoplay=0&#038;cc_load_policy=1&#038;cc_lang_pref=&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;loop=0&#038;rel=0&#038;fs=1&#038;playsinline=0&#038;autohide=2&#038;hl=en_US&#038;theme=dark&#038;color=red&#038;controls=1&#038;disablekb=0&#038;\" class=\"__youtube_prefs__ epyt-facade  epyt-is-override  no-lazyload\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-spai-excluded=\"true\" class=\"epyt-facade-poster skip-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  alt=\"New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction and Picks - New Mexico Bowl Betting Preview\"  src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/icFhYpIRtZY\/maxresdefault.jpg\"  \/><button class=\"epyt-facade-play\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg data-no-lazy=\"1\" height=\"100%\" version=\"1.1\" viewBox=\"0 0 68 48\" width=\"100%\"><path class=\"ytp-large-play-button-bg\" d=\"M66.52,7.74c-0.78-2.93-2.49-5.41-5.42-6.19C55.79,.13,34,0,34,0S12.21,.13,6.9,1.55 C3.97,2.33,2.27,4.81,1.48,7.74C0.06,13.05,0,24,0,24s0.06,10.95,1.48,16.26c0.78,2.93,2.49,5.41,5.42,6.19 C12.21,47.87,34,48,34,48s21.79-0.13,27.1-1.55c2.93-0.78,4.64-3.26,5.42-6.19C67.94,34.95,68,24,68,24S67.94,13.05,66.52,7.74z\" fill=\"#f00\"><\/path><path d=\"M 45,24 27,14 27,34\" fill=\"#fff\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div><\/div><span itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><meta itemprop=\"embedUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/icFhYpIRtZY\"><meta itemprop=\"name\" content=\"\"><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"YouTube video\"><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/icFhYpIRtZY\/0.jpg\"><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"\"><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"\"><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Picks:  New Mexico State Strengths and Weaknesses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Aggies turned the corner in 2022 with a 4.5-3.95 rush ratio, and then exceeded expectations again this year with a 5.8-4.4 ratio.&nbsp; They spread the wealth around, and QB Pavia is also a rush threat.&nbsp; Their main goal is to keep him healthy.&nbsp; He left the title game vs. Liberty.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I chart Pavia at 17+ completions (31 attempts) for 207 yards, and another 49 on the ground.&nbsp; I project one interception.&nbsp; That\u2019s not so bad for a team with a run-first mentality.&nbsp; New Mexico State\u2019s defense was fully exposed by Liberty.&nbsp; Liberty passed for 319 yards (20-25), and ran for an absurd 45-393 ledger.&nbsp; Needless to say, Liberty never punted in the game.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both the run defense and pass defense regressed from 2022, at least partly due to this game.&nbsp; If Fresno\u2019s QB has success in the pass game it will open up the run game in this spot.&nbsp; New Mexico State\u2019s sack ratio is 31-20.&nbsp; The kicking game was fine (18-23).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Best Bets &#8211; The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;Head Coach Jeff Tedford will not guide Fresno in this bowl game (medical reasons).&nbsp; Their LB coach will be in charge. Does that affect game planning?&nbsp; Other than that, Fresno must contain Pavia and force him into pass only situations.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019d also run more in this spot, as the Aggies are vulnerable to a team with run-pass balance.&nbsp; New Mexico State needs an early defensive stop to regain its confidence.&nbsp; Stopping QB Keene will not be easy.&nbsp; The Aggies forced just eleven takeaways this season in a 14-game schedule.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If Fresno stays clean in turnovers, then I don\u2019t see how Fresno will be stopped from scoring 30+ points.&nbsp; Running effectively and controlling clock would greatly enhance New Mexico State\u2019s win probability in the New Mexico Bowl<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Best Bets &#8211; The Free Picks &amp; Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The game is at rival New Mexico State\u2019s home campus, perhaps a minor advantage for the Aggies.&nbsp; They will be highly motivated to beat a perceived \u201chigher profile\u201d team, while we don\u2019t fully know Fresno\u2019s motivation.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">New Mexico State has the ability to run to win, but my numbers do not support the Aggies being a four-point favorite in the New Mexico Bowl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Pick: <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With a healthy Pavia, I could see this going over the total of 51, weather permitting. <strong>Take the over on the totals<\/strong> in the New Mexico Bowl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking for even more college football coverage?  Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WagerTalk also has a full video preview of each bowl game &#8211; take a look!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"epyt-video-wrapper\"><div  style=\"display: block; margin: 0px auto;\"  id=\"_ytid_66186\"  width=\"870\" height=\"489\"  data-origwidth=\"870\" data-origheight=\"489\" data-facadesrc=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/T-r2rIXwm-A?enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/legacy.winnersandwhiners.com&#038;autoplay=0&#038;cc_load_policy=1&#038;cc_lang_pref=&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;loop=0&#038;rel=0&#038;fs=1&#038;playsinline=0&#038;autohide=2&#038;hl=en_US&#038;theme=dark&#038;color=red&#038;controls=1&#038;disablekb=0&#038;\" class=\"__youtube_prefs__ epyt-facade  epyt-is-override  no-lazyload\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-spai-excluded=\"true\" class=\"epyt-facade-poster skip-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  alt=\"Expert Insights: 2023 College Football Bowl Predictions &amp; Betting Tips\"  src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/T-r2rIXwm-A\/maxresdefault.jpg\"  \/><button class=\"epyt-facade-play\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg data-no-lazy=\"1\" height=\"100%\" version=\"1.1\" viewBox=\"0 0 68 48\" width=\"100%\"><path class=\"ytp-large-play-button-bg\" d=\"M66.52,7.74c-0.78-2.93-2.49-5.41-5.42-6.19C55.79,.13,34,0,34,0S12.21,.13,6.9,1.55 C3.97,2.33,2.27,4.81,1.48,7.74C0.06,13.05,0,24,0,24s0.06,10.95,1.48,16.26c0.78,2.93,2.49,5.41,5.42,6.19 C12.21,47.87,34,48,34,48s21.79-0.13,27.1-1.55c2.93-0.78,4.64-3.26,5.42-6.19C67.94,34.95,68,24,68,24S67.94,13.05,66.52,7.74z\" fill=\"#f00\"><\/path><path d=\"M 45,24 27,14 27,34\" fill=\"#fff\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div><\/div><span itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><meta itemprop=\"embedUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/T-r2rIXwm-A\"><meta itemprop=\"name\" content=\"\"><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"YouTube video\"><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/T-r2rIXwm-A\/0.jpg\"><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"\"><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"\"><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk&#8217;s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WagerTalk\u2019s college football <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L2&amp;cb=0.4228145318819374\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/news\/football\/article\/2023-12-03\/2023-24-college-football-bowl-game-schedule-scores-tv-channels-times\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on<\/span> and anytime touchdown scorer odds. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New Mexico Bowl Preview &amp; Free Picks: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State Best Bets Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky&nbsp;offers his tips on the New Mexico Bowl being played on December 16th, between Fresno State and New Mexico State. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now! It [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":22232,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2044],"tags":[8,5239,7916,7915,8096,8097,1088,5152,5151,11,8098],"class_list":["post-25110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football","tag-college-football-best-bets","tag-college-football-bowl-game-betting-advice","tag-college-football-bowl-game-preview","tag-college-football-bowl-games","tag-college-football-bowl-picks","tag-college-football-picks","tag-free-college-football-picks","tag-free-ncaaf-picks","tag-ncaaf","tag-ncaaf-predictions"],"basic_html":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Preview &amp; Free Picks: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State Best Bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ronacesports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky<\/a>&nbsp;offers his tips on the New Mexico Bowl being played on December 16th, between Fresno State and New Mexico State. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>It was quite a season for Fresno State.&nbsp; They started 2-0, but in both games, they had a win probability of well under 50% during the 4<sup>th<\/sup> quarter.&nbsp; They continued to win close games and stood at 8-1 before losing their last three games, including one to lowly New Mexico.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Jerry Kill worked wonders with New Mexico State in 2022, and did even better this season.&nbsp; They went 10-4, winning eight in a row before losing in the CUSA title game to undefeated Liberty.&nbsp; This should be a fun one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Find free <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/college-football\">college football best bets<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">bowl game coverage<\/a> this postseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks - <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">Get Started Now<\/a>!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/a.slack-edge.com\/production-standard-emoji-assets\/14.0\/google-medium\/1f6d2@2x.png\" alt=\":shopping_trolley:\">&nbsp;All FIRST TIME customers will receive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/college-football\">15% OFF anything<\/a> and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Picks and Best Bets:  Fresno State Preview <\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Fresno likely was overvalued for much of 2023 but that doesn\u2019t explain their sudden three-game losing streak.&nbsp; I like QB Keene, and the two RB\u2019s have a chance at putting up some solid numbers facing an Aggie defense that played a rather soft schedule.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Fresno is capable of running for 5.0 per carry if they decide to run the ball more often than they have been.&nbsp; Their top five pass-catchers had 35 or more receptions.&nbsp; Three of the top four are seniors, so Fresno has plenty of passing game experience.&nbsp; Advantage, Bulldogs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1fresnostate.png\" alt=\"new mexico bowl\" class=\"wp-image-25114\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fresno State Defensive Numbers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Fresno\u2019s defense regressed a bit in 2023, allowing 4.55 yards per carry, corrected for sacks using my rush stat formula (I use the formula for the top five conferences, plus the Mountain West).&nbsp; New Mexico state has one of the best run offenses in the NCAA and that is their edge.&nbsp; In fact, the Aggies ran 170 yards or more in every game this season.&nbsp; Fresno is a tough team to pass on, but a closer inspection shows that they did not face a particularly tough slate of opposing QB\u2019s.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The Aggies could have modest success in this spot.&nbsp; Despite the slant in terms of passing first over running, Fresno boasts a +10 turnover ratio, aided by 16 defensive interceptions.&nbsp; The sack ratio was mediocre at 26-30.&nbsp; Two more Fresno notes.&nbsp; 1<sup>st<\/sup>, their Power Number dropped ten points during their last seven games, indicating some weakness.&nbsp; 2<sup>nd<\/sup>, their conversion rate offensively on 3<sup>rd<\/sup> down is solid, at over 46%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Betting Tips<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/icFhYpIRtZY?origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Picks:  New Mexico State Strengths and Weaknesses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The Aggies turned the corner in 2022 with a 4.5-3.95 rush ratio, and then exceeded expectations again this year with a 5.8-4.4 ratio.&nbsp; They spread the wealth around, and QB Pavia is also a rush threat.&nbsp; Their main goal is to keep him healthy.&nbsp; He left the title game vs. Liberty.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I chart Pavia at 17+ completions (31 attempts) for 207 yards, and another 49 on the ground.&nbsp; I project one interception.&nbsp; That\u2019s not so bad for a team with a run-first mentality.&nbsp; New Mexico State\u2019s defense was fully exposed by Liberty.&nbsp; Liberty passed for 319 yards (20-25), and ran for an absurd 45-393 ledger.&nbsp; Needless to say, Liberty never punted in the game.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Both the run defense and pass defense regressed from 2022, at least partly due to this game.&nbsp; If Fresno\u2019s QB has success in the pass game it will open up the run game in this spot.&nbsp; New Mexico State\u2019s sack ratio is 31-20.&nbsp; The kicking game was fine (18-23).<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Best Bets - The Keys to The Game: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;Head Coach Jeff Tedford will not guide Fresno in this bowl game (medical reasons).&nbsp; Their LB coach will be in charge. Does that affect game planning?&nbsp; Other than that, Fresno must contain Pavia and force him into pass only situations.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019d also run more in this spot, as the Aggies are vulnerable to a team with run-pass balance.&nbsp; New Mexico State needs an early defensive stop to regain its confidence.&nbsp; Stopping QB Keene will not be easy.&nbsp; The Aggies forced just eleven takeaways this season in a 14-game schedule.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>If Fresno stays clean in turnovers, then I don\u2019t see how Fresno will be stopped from scoring 30+ points.&nbsp; Running effectively and controlling clock would greatly enhance New Mexico State\u2019s win probability in the New Mexico Bowl<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Mexico Bowl Best Bets - The Free Picks &amp; Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The game is at rival New Mexico State\u2019s home campus, perhaps a minor advantage for the Aggies.&nbsp; They will be highly motivated to beat a perceived \u201chigher profile\u201d team, while we don\u2019t fully know Fresno\u2019s motivation.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>New Mexico State has the ability to run to win, but my numbers do not support the Aggies being a four-point favorite in the New Mexico Bowl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Pick: <\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>With a healthy Pavia, I could see this going over the total of 51, weather permitting. <strong>Take the over on the totals<\/strong> in the New Mexico Bowl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for even more college football coverage?  Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game - <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football-bowl-games\/\">find it here each day<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk also has a full video preview of each bowl game - take a look!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/T-r2rIXwm-A?origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk's Live Bowl Game Odds Screen<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s college football <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L2&amp;cb=0.4228145318819374\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncaa.com\/news\/football\/article\/2023-12-03\/2023-24-college-football-bowl-game-schedule-scores-tv-channels-times\">NCAAF<\/a> bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul>\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p> <\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/46"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25110"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25144,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25110\/revisions\/25144"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}