Steve Garcia v Melquizael Costa<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a really fun fight that takes place mostly on the feet, and while I think Costa squeaks out a close win, there\u2019s no way I\u2019m laying -230 on him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Garcia has won two fights in a row by KO, and has showed really great power in those wins so I\u2019m not counting him out of this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Costa certainly has the speed advantage on the feet, and his movement and kicks are going to be big weapons for him, but if Garcia closes the distance and gets Costa in the clinch, he can land big shots that will slow Costa down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Garcia by KO could be an interesting prop<\/strong> because I don\u2019t think Garcia can win a decision, and Costa by decision could be another way to bet this fight if you believe in Costa, but from a betting perspective, I will sit this one out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRayanne dos Santos -142 v Talita Alencar +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTalita Alencar comes from a wrestling\/grappling background, and that\u2019s what she does in her fights. Her striking defense is bad, and her striking is pretty weak as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Where she excels is getting opponents to the ground, controlling them and dominating large chunks of time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She is coming off a draw in Contender Series, and I wasn\u2019t impressed as she gassed as the fight went on, and in round three she was getting hit bad on the feet and was desperate to stay on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Rayanne dos Santos beats her up pretty good on the feet, it just comes down to what can dos Santos do when Alencar shoots for takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She won\u2019t stop them all, but I think her striking and athleticism will be enough to frustrate Alencar early and that will lead to dos Santos piecing her up on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dos Santos\u2019s ground game isn\u2019t amazing, but it\u2019s good enough to not let Alencar dominate, and on the feet it\u2019s no contest. Dos Santos should win<\/strong> this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nStephanie Egger +150 v Luana Santos -180<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe lines are strange for this fight. Stephanie Egger should win this fight, and if she doesn\u2019t that will be two horrible losses in a row. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Santos hasn\u2019t fought great competition, and even though she got the first round finish in her UFC debut, she was fighting Juliana Miller who is nowhere near a UFC caliber fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Santos\u2019s striking is wild and a bit unorthodox and although she has finishes on her record, Egger is a massive step-up in competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Egger just looked like she wasn\u2019t paying attention in her last fight, and it cost her as she got caught in a kneebar, but before that she had a nice win against Ailin Perez by submission. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Egger is smart, she\u2019ll use her wrestling and grappling as she is much better in that area, but I just can\u2019t bet on Stephanie Egger after that last performance. No chance I\u2019m laying -180 on Santos<\/strong> who I\u2019m not that high on so this fight is a pass for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKenan Song +142 v Kevin Jousset -170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKenan Song has lost two straight to Ian Gary and Max Griffin, but he rebounded in his last fight by beating Rolando Bedoya in a fight that took place on the feet and Song pushed forward and landed the better shots all fight including a nice knock down in round two. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I thought his movement looked good, and his striking was just a bit more crisp than Bedoya so it was a well-deserved win, and his opponent will absolutely stand and strike with him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Joussett made his UFC debut in his last fight and got the round one finish as he used his length to land jabs and good kicks which eventually led to a clinch and takedown, and a submission (Jousset\u2019s opponent had the worst submission defense I\u2019ve ever seen). <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight comes down to the length of Jousset, and can he land enough to slow down Song, and can he do enough damage early because Song looks to have really good cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t think this fight has any value in betting it, but I would lean ever so slightly to Song as I have a feeling Song\u2019s speed and cardio will win him rounds two and three<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tatsuro Taira -410 v Carlos Hernandez +320<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarlos Hernandez has pretty decent striking as he beat up Bondar in his last fight, but Bondar isn\u2019t an amazing UFC fighter, and for Hernandez it\u2019s all about avoiding the takedowns and ground game of Tatsuro Taira who is 14-0. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s not a good sign for Hernandez that he got submitted in round one against Allan Nascimento two fights ago as Nascimento is a takedown and ground game specialist. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t think Taira will let Hernandez get going with his striking, and Taira will get this to the ground sooner rather than later, and once on the ground it\u2019s Taira all day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Taira ML is a fantastic parlay piece<\/strong>, or you can wait til props come out and take Taira inside the distance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hyun Sung Park -425 v Shannon Ross +330<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShannon Ross has to be one of the worst UFC fighters on the roster, and to be honest, he\u2019s only getting UFC fights because he\u2019s Australian and he\u2019s been on the cards with fellow Australian Alexander Volkanovski. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He lost on Contender Series as a favorite, and he\u2019s had two UFC fights and he was knocked out in 59 seconds in his first fight, and then he was KO\u2019d in 17 seconds so we really have no idea what he can do. He\u2019s fighting Park, who is coming off of Road To UFC, and I\u2019ve just decided that I\u2019m not betting on sides with these guys making their debut coming off of Road To UFC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Park is 8-0, but the competition is tough to determine, and from what I\u2019ve seen he does some striking well, and can submit guys, but he doesn\u2019t have good striking defense so there are just a lot of unknowns with him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
What I am doing is betting these fights that feature Road To UFC fighters is to not go the distance. They seem to be kill or be killed, and the last few I\u2019ve seen have ended early. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Neither of these guys has good striking defense, and both will be desperate for a win and will come out firing, and one of them will surely get finished. I don\u2019t know who wins, I don\u2019t particularly care, but I do think this fight doesn\u2019t go the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nasrat Haqparast -218 v Jamie Mullarkey +180<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNeither of these guys impress me at this point in their careers as both don\u2019t seem to have knockout power these days. Mullarkey had two knockouts in 2021, but he hasn\u2019t shown that power recently despite him winning three out of four fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Haqparast has one KO win in the UFC in 11 fights so where I\u2019m going with this is to take this fight to go the distance. It should be a fun fight on the feet with plenty of strikes, but I don\u2019t think either of these guys can finish the other. Take the fight to go the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Andre Muniz +160 v Jun Yong Park -192<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think Park continues to be undervalued, and I think -192 is a fantastic price as I expect him to easily beat Muniz. I bet on him to beat Uriah Hall three fights ago, and he did get the win, but Hall was at the end of his career and it wasn\u2019t an amazing performance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Two fights ago Brendan Allen dominated and finished him, and in his last fight he let Paul Craig beat him with his striking and Paul Craig has no striking. Muniz is known as a submission guy, but I haven\u2019t seen good ground game from him the last two fights, in fact I see him getting worse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Park is 7-1 in his last 8 fights, and he\u2019s shown his durability and submission game by winning his last three by rear naked choke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He had an incredible comeback win in his last fight against Duraev where he was an underdog as he showed how durable he his absorbing a lot of early strikes from Duraev, but he delivered plenty of his own strikes, and wore Duraev down to get the submission wein. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Park has better fight IQ<\/strong>, better cardio, and more ways to finish, and Muniz hasn\u2019t shown anything positive the last couple fights. I\u2019m on Park in this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sumaderji +260 v Allan Nascimento -325<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThree of Allan Nascimento\u2019s last four wins have been by submission, and his last three losses have all be split decisions so he could have a couple more wins to his record. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019ll certainly want to get this to the ground as that\u2019s where he is at his best with ground game, control time and hunting submissions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
We haven\u2019t seen Sumaderji since his fight against Schnell, one of the most insane fights we\u2019ve ever seen in the UFC. Sumaderji was fighting on a torn ACL, and was beating Matt Schnell bad on the feet until Schnell made an incredible comeback to get him on the ground and tear him apart with ground and pound and then a submission win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t know how Sumaderji is going to look in this fight as he\u2019s coming off an ACL injury, and the amount of damage he took could have long lasting effects. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ll take Nascimento to win<\/strong> by taking Sumaderji down and working the ground game, but at this price I probably won\u2019t get to the window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAnthony Smith +195 v Khalil Rountree -238<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nStrange fight here as Anthony Smith steps in short notice to face Rountree who has won four straight fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Smith is coming off a close split decision win against Ryan Spann where both guys were exhausted in the 2nd round, and Smith wore a lot of damage on his face after the fight, and I\u2019m not sure he truly won that fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s 35, been in a lot of fights and absorbed a lot of damage, and this feels like Smith taking a fight for a nice paycheck to end the year. Rountree should be faster, and I think he\u2019ll have better cardio as the fight goes on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I expect it to take place mostly on the feet, and I see Rountree being a bit more crisp and effective<\/strong>. Smith is tough as nails, but can leave himself open to getting hit pretty hard, and I think Rountree takes advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Yadong Song -370 v Chris Gutierrez +295<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Guiterrez was disappointed in himself after losing to Pedro Munhoz two fights ago as he was tentative, and got away from his game plan so it was nice to see him rebound with a win over Alatengheili in his last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He was able to land his damaging leg kicks and win the striking battle, but he has a real uphill battle in his fight against Yadong Song. Song is 25 years old and an incredible fighter with great speed and power, I just think he\u2019s a bit overrated. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He beat Casey Kenney who hasn\u2019t fought in the UFC since then, he beat Julio Arce who is 3-4 in his last 7, and he knocked out Marlon Moraes who has been knocked out 8 times in a row to end his career. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He jumped up in competition and fought Corey Sandhagen, and while he was tough, he was a bit outclassed and the fight got stopped because of a cut. To his credit, he came back and beat Ricky Simon in a really good fight, and although he got the win late, Simon was able to hit him and put damage on him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I thought his cardio was impressive, and for him to have KO power in the 5th round was nice to see. I believe Song should win with his speed and power, but if Gutierrez has success with the leg kicks early, that could be a huge factor the longer the fight goes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ll lean Song to win, but from a betting perspective, there\u2019s no way I\u2019m laying this kind of price. I think the way to play this fight is to look at an over of some kind<\/strong>. Gutierrez has never been knocked out, and Song isn\u2019t going to submit him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe last four fights for Song haven\u2019t gone the distance, but his last two fights made it to round four and five. These guys are going to be tough to finish, I think this fight makes it to round four and maybe later<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24966"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24966\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24967,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24966\/revisions\/24967"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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