{"id":24613,"date":"2023-11-16T11:01:55","date_gmt":"2023-11-16T16:01:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=24613"},"modified":"2023-11-16T11:01:57","modified_gmt":"2023-11-16T16:01:57","slug":"ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-craig-predictions-picks-and-betting-odds-november-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-craig-predictions-picks-and-betting-odds-november-18\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Craig Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds November 18"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"><span style=\"color: initial; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: revert;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/profile\/andy-lang\">UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang<\/a> gives his <\/span><strong>UFC Fight Night predictions<span style=\"color: initial; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: revert;\"> and picks for November 18th<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: initial; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: revert;\"> with <\/span>Brendan Allen and Paul Craig <span style=\"color: initial; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: revert;\">headlining the event in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 5:00pm ET from<\/span> the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, <a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/tv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WagerTalk TV<\/a> is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk also offers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/MMA\">Free UFC Picks<\/a> all year long!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig: UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><th>Saturday, November 18<\/th><th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of <a href=\"https:\/\/wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com\/C.ashx?btag=a_3552b_1278c_&amp;affid=32&amp;siteid=3552&amp;adid=1278&amp;c=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Caesars<\/a>)<\/th><\/tr><tr><td>Moneyline:<\/td><td>Brendan Allen -430 vs Paul Craig +330<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rounds:<\/td><td>1.5 Rounds (Over -120 \/ Under +100)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fight Time:<\/td><td>Main Card Starts at 5:00pm ET \/ 2:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Arena:<\/td><td>UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TV:<\/td><td>ESPN+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"amazing-offer-from-expert-nfl-handicappers\">Before You Read UFC Fight Night Predictions&#8230; Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks &#8211; including UFC &amp; More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a class=\"anchor\" id=\"newsletterfrm\"><\/a>\n<div class=\"hottest_play_area\">\n  <div id=\"newsletter_widget\" class=\"hottest_play_third_area newsletter_widget\">\n    <div class=\"hottest_play_third_area_content\">\n      <div class=\"sign-up-offer-text\">\n        <p>SPECIAL OFFER FOR FIRST TIME SUBSCRIBERS<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"newsletter-thank new\" style=\"display: none;\">\n        <a class=\"anchor-newsletter\"><\/a>\n        Thanks for signing up! Check your email in a few minutes for your $15.00 Coupon Code.\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"newsletter-thank old\" style=\"display: none;\">\n        <a class=\"anchor-newsletter\"><\/a>\n        Thanks for signing up!<br>You are not eligible for this offer\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"newsletter-form-container\" style=\"display: none;\">\n        <h3>\n          <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/images\/email-open-wagertalk.png\" alt=\"WagerTalk NewsLetter\" class=\"get-wagertalk-img\">\n          Sign up for WagerTalk news alerts and get free picks, discounts and\n          <span class=\"get-wagertalk\">GET<\/span>\n          <span class=\"free-wagertalk\">$15<\/span>\n          <span class=\"get-wagertalk-line2\">FREE<\/span>\n        <\/h3>\n        <p class=\"center\">ANY SINGLE PURCHASE AT WAGERTALK.COM<\/p>\n        <div class=\"free-wagertalk-signup-form\">\n          <form id=\"splash-email-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/emailsignup\" method=\"POST\">\n            <input type=\"hidden\" name=\"formSubmitted\" value=\"yes\">\n            <input type=\"hidden\" id=\"splash-email-recaptcha-site-key\" name=\"data_recaptchaSiteKey\" value=\"6LdCARkmAAAAAANHM-KhXLNdRk_r8GTFerrGSrZo\">\n            <input type=\"hidden\" id=\"splash-email-recaptcha-token\" name=\"data_recaptchaToken\" value=\"\">\n            <input type=\"hidden\" id=\"splash-email-return-url\" name=\"data_returnURL\" value=\"\">\n            <!--suppress HtmlFormInputWithoutLabel -->\n            <input type=\"email\" name=\"data_email\" placeholder=\"Enter your email address\">\n            <div class=\"icon\">\n              <!--suppress HtmlFormInputWithoutLabel -->\n              <input type=\"submit\" name=\"signup\" value=\"Sign Up\" class=\"sign-up\">\n            <\/div>\n          <\/form>\n          <p class=\"signup-form-text\" style=\"color: red !important;font-weight: bold;\"><\/p>\n          <p class=\"small\">\n            This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/privacy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Privacy Policy<\/a> and\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/terms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Terms of Service<\/a> apply.\n          <\/p>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"color: revert; font-size: revert; font-weight: revert; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">UFC <\/span>Fight Night<span style=\"color: revert; font-size: revert; font-weight: revert; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\"> Predictions<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lucas Alexander -310 v Jeka Saragih +230<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There aren\u2019t many fighters I could be lower on than Saragih. His last fight was against Jubli, and he was an embarrassment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He came out making faces at Jubli, putting his hands behind his back, and just acting very unprofessional. Then he got taken down and beaten up for the rest of the fight until he was finished in the 2nd round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Saragih hasn\u2019t faced the best competition on his road to the UFC and it looked like when he had a step up in competition, he was out of his league. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has a lot of finishes on his resume, but none of them against fighters who are UFC caliber. I see no upside on him, and if he performs like that in this one he\u2019ll get finished again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lucas Alexander got finished in his UFC debut by Brito (no shame in that), but responded by beating Steven Peterson by decision in his next fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alexander displayed good leg kicks and plenty of volume on the feet, and while he didn\u2019t get the finish he did do plenty of damage to Stevenson. <strong>Alexander should beat Saragih<\/strong> in this one, he\u2019s a fine parlay piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"epyt-video-wrapper\"><div  style=\"display: block; margin: 0px auto;\"  id=\"_ytid_91948\"  width=\"870\" height=\"489\"  data-origwidth=\"870\" data-origheight=\"489\" data-facadesrc=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/j6zFvWTn2Ww?enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com&#038;autoplay=0&#038;cc_load_policy=1&#038;cc_lang_pref=&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;loop=0&#038;rel=0&#038;fs=1&#038;playsinline=0&#038;autohide=2&#038;hl=en_US&#038;theme=dark&#038;color=red&#038;controls=1&#038;disablekb=0&#038;\" class=\"__youtube_prefs__ epyt-facade  epyt-is-override  no-lazyload\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-spai-excluded=\"true\" class=\"epyt-facade-poster skip-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  alt=\"UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen v Paul Craig Every Fight Breakdown - Bets, Tips, Predictions, Odds\"  src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/j6zFvWTn2Ww\/maxresdefault.jpg\"  \/><button class=\"epyt-facade-play\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg data-no-lazy=\"1\" height=\"100%\" version=\"1.1\" viewBox=\"0 0 68 48\" width=\"100%\"><path class=\"ytp-large-play-button-bg\" d=\"M66.52,7.74c-0.78-2.93-2.49-5.41-5.42-6.19C55.79,.13,34,0,34,0S12.21,.13,6.9,1.55 C3.97,2.33,2.27,4.81,1.48,7.74C0.06,13.05,0,24,0,24s0.06,10.95,1.48,16.26c0.78,2.93,2.49,5.41,5.42,6.19 C12.21,47.87,34,48,34,48s21.79-0.13,27.1-1.55c2.93-0.78,4.64-3.26,5.42-6.19C67.94,34.95,68,24,68,24S67.94,13.05,66.52,7.74z\" fill=\"#f00\"><\/path><path d=\"M 45,24 27,14 27,34\" fill=\"#fff\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div><\/div><span itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><meta itemprop=\"embedUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/j6zFvWTn2Ww\"><meta itemprop=\"name\" content=\"UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen v Paul Craig Every Fight Breakdown - Bets, Tips, Predictions, Odds\"><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"Andy breaks down every fight on UFC Fight Night: Allen v Craig and gives his bets, tips and predictions. Introduction: 00:00 Lucas Alexander v Jeka Saragih 00:035 Charles Johnson v Rafael Estevam 02:35 Chad Anheliger v Jose Johnson 05:17 Jonathan Pearce v Joanderson Brito 07:14 Mick Parkin v Caio Machado 09:05 Lucie Pudilova v Ailin Perez 10:09 Nikolas Motta v Trey Ogden 12:29 Cesar Almeida v Christian Leroy Duncan 15:15 Urod Medic v Jonny Parsons 17:50 Amanda Ribas v Luana Pinheiro 19:56 Payton Talbott v Nick Aguirre 21:40 Jordan Leavitt v Chase Hooper 24:18 Jake Matthews v Michael Morales 27:22 Brendan Allen v Paul Craig 29:57 \ud83d\udc4d Make sure to SUBSCRIBE to WagerTalk TV; \ud83d\udd14 CLICK the Bell and never miss an episode! \ud83e\udd11 Free Sports Picks: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks \ud83d\udcca Live Odds: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds \ud83d\uddde\ufe0f News: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news \ud83d\udc4d Stay connected with WagerTalk \ud83d\udcfa YouTube: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tv \ud83d\udc4d Facebook: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/fb \ud83d\udc26 Twitter: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tw \ud83d\udcf8 Instagram: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ig \ud83d\udcf0 Reddit: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/rd \u2764\ufe0f iHeart Radio: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/iheart \ud83c\udf4e Apple Podcasts: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ap \ud83d\udccc Pinterest: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/pin\"><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/j6zFvWTn2Ww\/0.jpg\"><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT36M35S\"><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2023-11-12T23:59:24Z\"><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Charles Johnson -102 v Rafael Estevam -118<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not a Charles Johnson fan as I don\u2019t think he has good offense, and he\u2019s 2-3 in the UFC with his two wins being against bad opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His striking is decent, volume on the feet is decent, but he keeps getting taken down in fights, and losing big chunks of the fight while on the ground, and Estevam is a guy who loves takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Estevam hasn\u2019t fought since last years Contenter Series where he won by taking his opponent down with ease and getting the round two ground and pound win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve faded Johnson the last two fights and cashed on both, and my only worry is that Johnson has good cardio so if Estevam doesn\u2019t finish and he tires himself out, Johnson will have energy in the third round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ll still take Estevam to win because of his takedown and ground control, but since I haven\u2019t seen him in a while I\u2019ll be passing on this fight. If you\u2019re a live bettor, and you <strong>see Estevam get tired in the second, Johnson is worth a look on a live bet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jose Johnson -205 v Chad Anheliger +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jose Johnson has shown bad takedown defense in his Contender Series fight and his UFC debut. He was able to win on Contender Series as his opponent did no damage on the ground, but Johnson was being controlled for a majority of the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He makes his UFC debut and Blackshear controls him immediately, and wins by a rare twister submission. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just not good performances from Johnson against his toughest opponents. The question is, can Chad Anheliger take advantage of that weakness? Absolutely not. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heliger has 0 takedowns in his last three fights, and in fact he\u2019s been taken down 11 times in those fights so Johnson\u2019s biggest weakness is something Heliger can\u2019t exploit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heliger stands and strikes, but I think Johnson has the advantage there as Heliger\u2019s striking isn\u2019t amazing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He got the KO of Jesse Strader two fights ago, but Strader lost two UFC fights and isn\u2019t in the UFC anymore, and the KO came in round 3 when Strader gasses and Heliger was behind on the scorecards going into that round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His next fight he got pretty much dominated by Alateng, and I think Johnson can do the same here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The price feels right so I\u2019m not sure there\u2019s a ton of value, but <strong>I don\u2019t think Heliger is very good<\/strong> and Johnson should win the striking battle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jonathan Pearce -155 v Joanderson Brito +130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This will be a great test for Brito who has three first round finishes in his last three fights, but the last fight that went past the first round he lost by decision to Bill Algeo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In that fight Brito had good control time in round one, but Algeo came on as the round went on, and Brito just didn\u2019t have much left in the gas tank and Algeo damaged him up en route to a solid win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recipe is the same here for Pearce. Survive the early onslaught from Brito, let him gas and win rounds two and three, and Pearce can absolutely do that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He\u2019s won five fights in a row, and all of them have been in round two or later. He has good striking, he has a good ground game, I actually think this -155 is a solid price. Pearce has more weapons, he\u2019s well-rounded and he has the better cardio.<strong> Pearce is the pick in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mick Parkin -340 v Caio Machado +270<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This heavyweight fight is going to feature two big guys who will be exhausted by the end of the first round if there isn\u2019t a finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Parkin won against Jamal Pogues in his UFC debut so you can make the case he\u2019s got a bit more experience than Machado, and Machado is coming off a decision win on Contender Series in a less than exciting fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Don\u2019t bet on this fight<\/strong>. These guys aren\u2019t very good, the price is insane, there\u2019s really not much else to this fight. Stay away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lucie Pudilova +112 v Ailin Perez -142<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lucie Padilova is coming off a split decision loss to Joselyn Edwards in one of the worst decision of the year as she clearly won the first two rounds. She got takedowns, controlled Edwards and did damage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I thought it was a really good fight for her, and the judges took away a win from her. This is Pudilova\u2019s second stint in the UFC so she\u2019s faced really good competition, and has good takedowns, pretty good striking and good cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She\u2019s also going to be the bigger fighter, and that\u2019s big because Perez likes to get into the clinch, wrestle and get it to the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She\u2019s coming off a dominant win against Ashlee Evans-Smith, but Smith is terrible and probably done fighting in the UFC. I\u2019m a big fan of Perez, but she got finished by Stephanie Egger, and not being able to finish Evans-Smith was bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This fight should have lots of action, and it will be fun to watch, but I think Pudilova will be too much over three rounds. <strong>I\u2019ll take the underdog<\/strong> here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Nikolas Motta -142 v Trey Ogden +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a tough fight to handicap. Motta knocked out Cameron VanCamp in round one two fights ago, but VanCamp is not a UFC caliber fighter and has been cut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the previous fight, Jim Miller melted Motta in the second round as Motta started off strong, and then got tired and knocked out. In Motta\u2019s last fight against Manuel Torres he took a vicious elbow to the chin early in round one and was knocked out instantly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So I\u2019ve seen Motta beat a really bad opponent, and then get knocked out by two good opponents. Trey Ogden doesn\u2019t impress me a ton as he was pieced apart on the feet against Bahamondes, however he did beat Daniel Zellhuber before that and he lost a close split decision to Jordan Leavitt before that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I just don\u2019t see the power from Ogden, which is too bad because Motta\u2019s striking defense is terrible. Ogden has some submission finishes before he joined the UFC, maybe he gets back to trying to work submissions on Motta, but it appears Motta will have the early power advantage, and Ogden will have the cardio advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This fight is a stay away, but the value is definitely in the plus money on Ogden as I don\u2019t trust Motta at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Chris Duncan -125 v Cesar Almeida +105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I really like Duncan in this fight as he\u2019s the better MMA fighter. Cesar Almeida is coming off an upset win on Contender Series against Lucas Fernando, but it wasn\u2019t a dominating performance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fernando looked like he just froze in the spotlight, and had a terrible performance as he couldn\u2019t get his takedowns and he absolutely gassed on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Almeida has a kickboxing background, but did show some good defense on the takedowns, but I didn\u2019t think Almeida\u2019s striking was all that impressivle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Duncan is coming off a loss to Petrosyan where Petrosyan did what he normally does which is wear down his opponent on the feet and sneak out the last couple rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Duncan has a unique striking style with crazy stances and attacks, and sometimes they\u2019re effective, and sometimes they make him look really bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That was Duncan\u2019s first career loss and I think he\u2019ll be better because of it. I\u2019m guessing he\u2019s more focused and dialed in, and this is a pretty big step down in competition. I think the price is fair, and I\u2019m not very high on Almeida so <strong>I like Duncan to win<\/strong> this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Uros Medic -245 v Jonny Parsons +200<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This one should be exciting. Both guys love to brawl, and we\u2019ll see plenty of haymakers in this one. I like Parsons at +200 here as these are two guys who hunt for knockouts so Parsons absolutely has a punchers chance, but also Medic eats a lot of punches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He got dropped several times by Semelsberger before winning by KO in the third, and before that he knocked out Omar Morales, but Morales has lost three straight by KO so I see Medic knocking out guys without great chins. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Parsons will eat shots, and he showed his power by knocking out Danny Roberts. Parsons doesn\u2019t look polished in the ring, but he\u2019s super tough with a lot of power in his strikes, which is a recipe for an upset here. I\u2019ll <strong>take Parsons to get the upset<\/strong> by KO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Amanda Ribas -298 v Luana Pinheiro +230<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have a feeling Pinheiro gets humbled in this matchup as it\u2019s quite the step up in competition, and I just don\u2019t see the ability of Pinheiro to compete against the best. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She\u2019s 11-1, but her UFC wins are a win from an illegal up kick against Randa Markos, a decision against Sam Hughes who was 5-3 at the time, and a close split decision win against The Karate Hottie (Michelle Waterson-Gomez) who has now lost 6 out of 7. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Amanda Ribas is fighting the best in this division, and he recent losses are to Katlyn Chookagian and Maycee Barber, and the Barber fight was one of the most amazing women\u2019s fights, an absolute bloody war in the octagon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pinheiro doesn\u2019t have the power to scare Ribas, and her stance and offense isn\u2019t crisp. Ribas\u2019s striking will land early and often and be way too much for Pinheiro. <strong>Ribas ML is a nice parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Payton Talbott -525 v Nick Aguirre +400<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Talbott is a prospect with a very high ceiling who is coming off a really nice win on Contender Series against a quality opponent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Talbott is tall, and he has good jabs with those long arms that have good power behind them. He\u2019s athletic on the feet and his cardio is great. In his last fight he showed good clinch and wrestling defense which helped him set up his strikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His weakness is his striking defense which needs a ton of work, but I don\u2019t see Nick Aguirre as the guy to take advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aguirre got dominated by Dan Argueta in his UFC debut, and before his debut he really hadn\u2019t fought anyone good as the combined record of his 7 opponents was 8-6. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I didn\u2019t get to see much of Aguirre\u2019s offense because Argueta was on top of him most of the fight, but what I did see wasn\u2019t impressive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Talbott is the real deal, but this price is insane for a debutant. I guess Talbott is a parlay piece as I expect his striking to piece apart Aguirre, but I won\u2019t lay this price so it\u2019s a stay away from a betting perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Chase Hooper -245 v Jordan Leavitt +200<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chase Hooper looked great in his last fight as he moved up a weight division, and he talked about how much better his camp was without the brutal weight cut and it paid off as he got a decisive win over Nick Fiore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is great matchmaking as both these guys are unorthodox fighters, and on the feet this should be interesting as Jordan Leavitt has power, especially in the clinch, and Hooper showed improved striking last fight so I see both fighters landing successfully on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hooper is known for his ground game so Leavitt will certainly try and keep it on the feet, but Leavitt can handle his own on the ground so I don\u2019t see a Hooper submission win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This fight is really tough to handicap as Hooper really looked much better in the new weight class, and I always think Leavitt is undervalued so this fight is a dog or pass situation. I won\u2019t bet this fight, but I think <strong>Leavitt +200 is a great price<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Michael Morales -278 v Jake Matthews +225<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Michael Morales keeps passing all the tests as he rises up the rankings in the UFC, and he can be tough to bet on because he\u2019s young and the books are putting him at a big favorite, and you\u2019re having to bet on him with the assumption that he keeps making improvements in between fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He beat Max Griffin by decision, and it was a solid win as Griffin tried to clinch and Morales was able to stuff and separate which let him land his punches at range which is his best weapon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think Jake Matthews is pretty similar to Max Griffin, and I\u2019m not high on Matthews at all. He beat Darrius Flowers last fight, but Flowers was a last minute debutant who was in over his head. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before that, Matthews lost to Semelsberger which is not a good look. Morales has the better striking, and Matthews will try and wrestle and get it to the ground, but Morales showed he has added solid takedown defense to his arsenal so <strong>I don\u2019t see Matthews having much success<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Morales is low volume, but his strikes are accurate and powerful and that will propel him to the win here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">UFC Fight Night Main Event: Brendan Allen -430 vs Paul Craig +330<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Interesting fight as both Allen and Craig are known for their ground games, but their striking has been on display in their last couple fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Paul Craig used his new striking to beat Andre Munizon the feet and eventually getting the ground and pound finish, and Brendan Allen caught Bruno Silva on the chin in his last fight and jumped on him to get the win on the ground as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brendan Allen was getting lit up before he turned the tables on Allen, but I still <strong>don\u2019t think Craig has the striking to KO or get Allen in trouble<\/strong>. Allen\u2019s striking is much better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes border-style-solid padding: 6px;\"><table class=\"has-text-color has-background has-fixed-layout\" style=\"background-color:#ffa04b;color:#2e3192\"><thead><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><\/th><th><\/th><th><\/th><th><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Sportsbook<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Welcome Bonus<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>States Available<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Get Your Bonus<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">1. PointsBet<\/td><td>$2000 in Risk Free Bets<\/td><td>NJ, IN, IA, IL, CO, MI, VA, NY, KS, LA<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/pointsbet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">Claim Now!<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">2. Caesars<\/td><td>$1250 Risk Free Bet<\/td><td>NJ, WV, CO, IN, IA, MI, VA, TN, AZ, NY, LA, KS, PA<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com\/C.ashx?btag=a_6125b_1278c_&amp;affid=32&amp;siteid=6125&amp;adid=1278&amp;c=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">Claim Now!<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">3. BetMGM<\/td><td>$1000 Risk Free Bet<\/td><td>NJ, PA, WV, IN, CO, TN, IA, MI, VA, DC, WY, MS, AZ, NY, LA, KS<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com\/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1616204\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">Claim Now!<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">4.DraftKings<\/td><td>$1000 Deposit Match<\/td><td>NJ, PA, WV, IN, CO, IL, IA, TN, MI, VA, WY, AZ, NY, LA, KS<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/draftkings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">Claim Now!<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">5. FanDuel<\/td><td>$1000 Risk Free Bet<\/td><td>NJ, PA, WV, IN, CO, IA, IL, TN, MI, VA, AZ, NY, LA, ON, KS<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/fanduel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">Claim Now!<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">6. BetRivers<\/td><td>$500 in Free Bets<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/bet_rivers_pa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">PA<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/bet_rivers_in\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">IN<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/bet_rivers_co\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">CO<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/bet_rivers_mi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">MI<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/bet_rivers_ia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">IA<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/bet_rivers_il\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">IL<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/bet_rivers_va\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">VA<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/bet_rivers_ny\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">NY<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/sugar_house_nj\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">NJ<\/a><\/td><td><strong>Click State<\/strong> <strong>To Claim<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">7. Unibet<\/td><td>$250 Risk Free Bet<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/unibet_nj\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">NJ<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/unibet_pa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">PA<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/unibet_in\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">IN<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/unibet_ia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">IA<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/unibet_va\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">VA<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/unibet_az\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">AZ<\/a><br><\/td><td><strong>Click State<\/strong> <strong>To Claim<\/strong> <\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">8. FoxBet<\/td><td>$50 Risk Free Bet<\/td><td>NJ, PA, CO, MI<br><\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/metabet.info\/wagertalk-foxbet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow sponsored\">Claim Now!<\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on. <\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UFC Fight Night Betting Preview UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for November 18th with Brendan Allen and Paul Craig headlining the event in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 5:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV. Are you subscribed to WagerTalk [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":3648,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[569],"tags":[7635,7639,7640,7637,4087,694,3675,3544,3676,7376,1552,1554,7632,1553,7633,7634,593,594,596],"class_list":["post-24613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mma","tag-brendan-allen-vs-paul-craig","tag-brendan-allen-vs-paul-craig-expert-picks","tag-brendan-allen-vs-paul-craig-free-picks","tag-brendan-allen-vs-paul-craig-predictions","tag-ufc-expert-picks","tag-ufc-fight-night","tag-ufc-fight-night-best-bets","tag-ufc-fight-night-bets","tag-ufc-fight-night-expert-picks","tag-ufc-fight-night-free-picks","tag-ufc-fight-night-odds","tag-ufc-fight-night-picks","tag-ufc-fight-night-picks-saturday","tag-ufc-fight-night-predictions","tag-ufc-fight-night-predictions-saturday","tag-ufc-free-picks","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-picks","tag-ufc-predictions"],"basic_html":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"><span style=\"color: initial; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: revert;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/profile\/andy-lang\">UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang<\/a> gives his <\/span><strong>UFC Fight Night predictions<span style=\"color: initial; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: revert;\"> and picks for November 18th<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: initial; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: revert;\"> with <\/span>Brendan Allen and Paul Craig <span style=\"color: initial; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: revert;\">headlining the event in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 5:00pm ET from<\/span> the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, <a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/tv\">WagerTalk TV<\/a> is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk also offers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/MMA\">Free UFC Picks<\/a> all year long!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig: UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><th>Saturday, November 18<\/th><th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of <a href=\"https:\/\/wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com\/C.ashx?btag=a_3552b_1278c_&amp;affid=32&amp;siteid=3552&amp;adid=1278&amp;c=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Caesars<\/a>)<\/th><\/tr><tr><td>Moneyline:<\/td><td>Brendan Allen -430 vs Paul Craig +330<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rounds:<\/td><td>1.5 Rounds (Over -120 \/ Under +100)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fight Time:<\/td><td>Main Card Starts at 5:00pm ET \/ 2:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Arena:<\/td><td>UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TV:<\/td><td>ESPN+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"amazing-offer-from-expert-nfl-handicappers\">Before You Read UFC Fight Night Predictions... Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC &amp; More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><a class=\"anchor\" id=\"newsletterfrm\"><\/a>\n<div class=\"hottest_play_area\">\n  <div id=\"newsletter_widget\" class=\"hottest_play_third_area newsletter_widget\">\n    <div class=\"hottest_play_third_area_content\">\n      <div class=\"sign-up-offer-text\">\n        <p>SPECIAL OFFER FOR FIRST TIME SUBSCRIBERS<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"newsletter-thank new\" style=\"display: none;\">\n        <a class=\"anchor-newsletter\"><\/a>\n        Thanks for signing up! Check your email in a few minutes for your $15.00 Coupon Code.\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"newsletter-thank old\" style=\"display: none;\">\n        <a class=\"anchor-newsletter\"><\/a>\n        Thanks for signing up!<br>You are not eligible for this offer\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"newsletter-form-container\" style=\"display: none;\">\n        <h3>\n          <img src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/images\/email-open-wagertalk.png\" alt=\"WagerTalk NewsLetter\" class=\"get-wagertalk-img\">\n          Sign up for WagerTalk news alerts and get free picks, discounts and\n          <span class=\"get-wagertalk\">GET<\/span>\n          <span class=\"free-wagertalk\">$15<\/span>\n          <span class=\"get-wagertalk-line2\">FREE<\/span>\n        <\/h3>\n        <p class=\"center\">ANY SINGLE PURCHASE AT WAGERTALK.COM<\/p>\n        <div class=\"free-wagertalk-signup-form\">\n          <form id=\"splash-email-form\" action=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/emailsignup\" method=\"POST\">\n            <input type=\"hidden\" name=\"formSubmitted\" value=\"yes\">\n            <input type=\"hidden\" id=\"splash-email-recaptcha-site-key\" name=\"data_recaptchaSiteKey\" value=\"6LdCARkmAAAAAANHM-KhXLNdRk_r8GTFerrGSrZo\">\n            <input type=\"hidden\" id=\"splash-email-recaptcha-token\" name=\"data_recaptchaToken\" value=\"\">\n            <input type=\"hidden\" id=\"splash-email-return-url\" name=\"data_returnURL\" value=\"\">\n            <!--suppress HtmlFormInputWithoutLabel -->\n            <input type=\"email\" name=\"data_email\" placeholder=\"Enter your email address\">\n            <div class=\"icon\">\n              <!--suppress HtmlFormInputWithoutLabel -->\n              <input type=\"submit\" name=\"signup\" value=\"Sign Up\" class=\"sign-up\">\n            <\/div>\n          <\/form>\n          <p class=\"signup-form-text\" style=\"color: red !important;font-weight: bold;\"><\/p>\n          <p class=\"small\">\n            This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/privacy\">Privacy Policy<\/a> and\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/terms\">Terms of Service<\/a> apply.\n          <\/p>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"color: revert; font-size: revert; font-weight: revert; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">UFC <\/span>Fight Night<span style=\"color: revert; font-size: revert; font-weight: revert; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\"> Predictions<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lucas Alexander -310 v Jeka Saragih +230<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>There aren\u2019t many fighters I could be lower on than Saragih. His last fight was against Jubli, and he was an embarrassment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>He came out making faces at Jubli, putting his hands behind his back, and just acting very unprofessional. Then he got taken down and beaten up for the rest of the fight until he was finished in the 2nd round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Saragih hasn\u2019t faced the best competition on his road to the UFC and it looked like when he had a step up in competition, he was out of his league. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>He has a lot of finishes on his resume, but none of them against fighters who are UFC caliber. I see no upside on him, and if he performs like that in this one he\u2019ll get finished again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Lucas Alexander got finished in his UFC debut by Brito (no shame in that), but responded by beating Steven Peterson by decision in his next fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Alexander displayed good leg kicks and plenty of volume on the feet, and while he didn\u2019t get the finish he did do plenty of damage to Stevenson. <strong>Alexander should beat Saragih<\/strong> in this one, he\u2019s a fine parlay piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/j6zFvWTn2Ww?origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Charles Johnson -102 v Rafael Estevam -118<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not a Charles Johnson fan as I don\u2019t think he has good offense, and he\u2019s 2-3 in the UFC with his two wins being against bad opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>His striking is decent, volume on the feet is decent, but he keeps getting taken down in fights, and losing big chunks of the fight while on the ground, and Estevam is a guy who loves takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Estevam hasn\u2019t fought since last years Contenter Series where he won by taking his opponent down with ease and getting the round two ground and pound win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve faded Johnson the last two fights and cashed on both, and my only worry is that Johnson has good cardio so if Estevam doesn\u2019t finish and he tires himself out, Johnson will have energy in the third round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ll still take Estevam to win because of his takedown and ground control, but since I haven\u2019t seen him in a while I\u2019ll be passing on this fight. If you\u2019re a live bettor, and you <strong>see Estevam get tired in the second, Johnson is worth a look on a live bet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jose Johnson -205 v Chad Anheliger +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Jose Johnson has shown bad takedown defense in his Contender Series fight and his UFC debut. He was able to win on Contender Series as his opponent did no damage on the ground, but Johnson was being controlled for a majority of the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>He makes his UFC debut and Blackshear controls him immediately, and wins by a rare twister submission. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Just not good performances from Johnson against his toughest opponents. The question is, can Chad Anheliger take advantage of that weakness? Absolutely not. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Heliger has 0 takedowns in his last three fights, and in fact he\u2019s been taken down 11 times in those fights so Johnson\u2019s biggest weakness is something Heliger can\u2019t exploit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Heliger stands and strikes, but I think Johnson has the advantage there as Heliger\u2019s striking isn\u2019t amazing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>He got the KO of Jesse Strader two fights ago, but Strader lost two UFC fights and isn\u2019t in the UFC anymore, and the KO came in round 3 when Strader gasses and Heliger was behind on the scorecards going into that round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>His next fight he got pretty much dominated by Alateng, and I think Johnson can do the same here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The price feels right so I\u2019m not sure there\u2019s a ton of value, but <strong>I don\u2019t think Heliger is very good<\/strong> and Johnson should win the striking battle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jonathan Pearce -155 v Joanderson Brito +130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This will be a great test for Brito who has three first round finishes in his last three fights, but the last fight that went past the first round he lost by decision to Bill Algeo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>In that fight Brito had good control time in round one, but Algeo came on as the round went on, and Brito just didn\u2019t have much left in the gas tank and Algeo damaged him up en route to a solid win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The recipe is the same here for Pearce. Survive the early onslaught from Brito, let him gas and win rounds two and three, and Pearce can absolutely do that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>He\u2019s won five fights in a row, and all of them have been in round two or later. He has good striking, he has a good ground game, I actually think this -155 is a solid price. Pearce has more weapons, he\u2019s well-rounded and he has the better cardio.<strong> Pearce is the pick in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mick Parkin -340 v Caio Machado +270<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This heavyweight fight is going to feature two big guys who will be exhausted by the end of the first round if there isn\u2019t a finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Parkin won against Jamal Pogues in his UFC debut so you can make the case he\u2019s got a bit more experience than Machado, and Machado is coming off a decision win on Contender Series in a less than exciting fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Don\u2019t bet on this fight<\/strong>. These guys aren\u2019t very good, the price is insane, there\u2019s really not much else to this fight. Stay away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lucie Pudilova +112 v Ailin Perez -142<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Lucie Padilova is coming off a split decision loss to Joselyn Edwards in one of the worst decision of the year as she clearly won the first two rounds. She got takedowns, controlled Edwards and did damage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I thought it was a really good fight for her, and the judges took away a win from her. This is Pudilova\u2019s second stint in the UFC so she\u2019s faced really good competition, and has good takedowns, pretty good striking and good cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>She\u2019s also going to be the bigger fighter, and that\u2019s big because Perez likes to get into the clinch, wrestle and get it to the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>She\u2019s coming off a dominant win against Ashlee Evans-Smith, but Smith is terrible and probably done fighting in the UFC. I\u2019m a big fan of Perez, but she got finished by Stephanie Egger, and not being able to finish Evans-Smith was bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This fight should have lots of action, and it will be fun to watch, but I think Pudilova will be too much over three rounds. <strong>I\u2019ll take the underdog<\/strong> here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Nikolas Motta -142 v Trey Ogden +120<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This is a tough fight to handicap. Motta knocked out Cameron VanCamp in round one two fights ago, but VanCamp is not a UFC caliber fighter and has been cut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>In the previous fight, Jim Miller melted Motta in the second round as Motta started off strong, and then got tired and knocked out. In Motta\u2019s last fight against Manuel Torres he took a vicious elbow to the chin early in round one and was knocked out instantly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>So I\u2019ve seen Motta beat a really bad opponent, and then get knocked out by two good opponents. Trey Ogden doesn\u2019t impress me a ton as he was pieced apart on the feet against Bahamondes, however he did beat Daniel Zellhuber before that and he lost a close split decision to Jordan Leavitt before that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I just don\u2019t see the power from Ogden, which is too bad because Motta\u2019s striking defense is terrible. Ogden has some submission finishes before he joined the UFC, maybe he gets back to trying to work submissions on Motta, but it appears Motta will have the early power advantage, and Ogden will have the cardio advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This fight is a stay away, but the value is definitely in the plus money on Ogden as I don\u2019t trust Motta at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Chris Duncan -125 v Cesar Almeida +105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I really like Duncan in this fight as he\u2019s the better MMA fighter. Cesar Almeida is coming off an upset win on Contender Series against Lucas Fernando, but it wasn\u2019t a dominating performance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Fernando looked like he just froze in the spotlight, and had a terrible performance as he couldn\u2019t get his takedowns and he absolutely gassed on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Almeida has a kickboxing background, but did show some good defense on the takedowns, but I didn\u2019t think Almeida\u2019s striking was all that impressivle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Duncan is coming off a loss to Petrosyan where Petrosyan did what he normally does which is wear down his opponent on the feet and sneak out the last couple rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Duncan has a unique striking style with crazy stances and attacks, and sometimes they\u2019re effective, and sometimes they make him look really bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>That was Duncan\u2019s first career loss and I think he\u2019ll be better because of it. I\u2019m guessing he\u2019s more focused and dialed in, and this is a pretty big step down in competition. I think the price is fair, and I\u2019m not very high on Almeida so <strong>I like Duncan to win<\/strong> this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Uros Medic -245 v Jonny Parsons +200<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This one should be exciting. Both guys love to brawl, and we\u2019ll see plenty of haymakers in this one. I like Parsons at +200 here as these are two guys who hunt for knockouts so Parsons absolutely has a punchers chance, but also Medic eats a lot of punches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>He got dropped several times by Semelsberger before winning by KO in the third, and before that he knocked out Omar Morales, but Morales has lost three straight by KO so I see Medic knocking out guys without great chins. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Parsons will eat shots, and he showed his power by knocking out Danny Roberts. Parsons doesn\u2019t look polished in the ring, but he\u2019s super tough with a lot of power in his strikes, which is a recipe for an upset here. I\u2019ll <strong>take Parsons to get the upset<\/strong> by KO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Amanda Ribas -298 v Luana Pinheiro +230<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I have a feeling Pinheiro gets humbled in this matchup as it\u2019s quite the step up in competition, and I just don\u2019t see the ability of Pinheiro to compete against the best. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>She\u2019s 11-1, but her UFC wins are a win from an illegal up kick against Randa Markos, a decision against Sam Hughes who was 5-3 at the time, and a close split decision win against The Karate Hottie (Michelle Waterson-Gomez) who has now lost 6 out of 7. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Amanda Ribas is fighting the best in this division, and he recent losses are to Katlyn Chookagian and Maycee Barber, and the Barber fight was one of the most amazing women\u2019s fights, an absolute bloody war in the octagon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Pinheiro doesn\u2019t have the power to scare Ribas, and her stance and offense isn\u2019t crisp. Ribas\u2019s striking will land early and often and be way too much for Pinheiro. <strong>Ribas ML is a nice parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Payton Talbott -525 v Nick Aguirre +400<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Talbott is a prospect with a very high ceiling who is coming off a really nice win on Contender Series against a quality opponent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Talbott is tall, and he has good jabs with those long arms that have good power behind them. He\u2019s athletic on the feet and his cardio is great. In his last fight he showed good clinch and wrestling defense which helped him set up his strikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>His weakness is his striking defense which needs a ton of work, but I don\u2019t see Nick Aguirre as the guy to take advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Aguirre got dominated by Dan Argueta in his UFC debut, and before his debut he really hadn\u2019t fought anyone good as the combined record of his 7 opponents was 8-6. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I didn\u2019t get to see much of Aguirre\u2019s offense because Argueta was on top of him most of the fight, but what I did see wasn\u2019t impressive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Talbott is the real deal, but this price is insane for a debutant. I guess Talbott is a parlay piece as I expect his striking to piece apart Aguirre, but I won\u2019t lay this price so it\u2019s a stay away from a betting perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Chase Hooper -245 v Jordan Leavitt +200<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Chase Hooper looked great in his last fight as he moved up a weight division, and he talked about how much better his camp was without the brutal weight cut and it paid off as he got a decisive win over Nick Fiore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This is great matchmaking as both these guys are unorthodox fighters, and on the feet this should be interesting as Jordan Leavitt has power, especially in the clinch, and Hooper showed improved striking last fight so I see both fighters landing successfully on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Hooper is known for his ground game so Leavitt will certainly try and keep it on the feet, but Leavitt can handle his own on the ground so I don\u2019t see a Hooper submission win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This fight is really tough to handicap as Hooper really looked much better in the new weight class, and I always think Leavitt is undervalued so this fight is a dog or pass situation. I won\u2019t bet this fight, but I think <strong>Leavitt +200 is a great price<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Michael Morales -278 v Jake Matthews +225<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Michael Morales keeps passing all the tests as he rises up the rankings in the UFC, and he can be tough to bet on because he\u2019s young and the books are putting him at a big favorite, and you\u2019re having to bet on him with the assumption that he keeps making improvements in between fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>He beat Max Griffin by decision, and it was a solid win as Griffin tried to clinch and Morales was able to stuff and separate which let him land his punches at range which is his best weapon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>I think Jake Matthews is pretty similar to Max Griffin, and I\u2019m not high on Matthews at all. He beat Darrius Flowers last fight, but Flowers was a last minute debutant who was in over his head. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Before that, Matthews lost to Semelsberger which is not a good look. Morales has the better striking, and Matthews will try and wrestle and get it to the ground, but Morales showed he has added solid takedown defense to his arsenal so <strong>I don\u2019t see Matthews having much success<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Morales is low volume, but his strikes are accurate and powerful and that will propel him to the win here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">UFC Fight Night Main Event: Brendan Allen -430 vs Paul Craig +330<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Interesting fight as both Allen and Craig are known for their ground games, but their striking has been on display in their last couple fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Paul Craig used his new striking to beat Andre Munizon the feet and eventually getting the ground and pound finish, and Brendan Allen caught Bruno Silva on the chin in his last fight and jumped on him to get the win on the ground as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Brendan Allen was getting lit up before he turned the tables on Allen, but I still <strong>don\u2019t think Craig has the striking to KO or get Allen in trouble<\/strong>. Allen\u2019s striking is much better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul>\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24613"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24613\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24614,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24613\/revisions\/24614"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}