Alessandro Costa Inside The Distance -130<\/strong><\/p>\nJimmy Flick makes his second fight since his return to the octagon, and I think this fight will go about as good as his fight against Charles Johnson went.<\/p>\n
Johnson isn\u2019t a great UFC fighter as he\u2019s 2-3 in the UFC with one win being a split decision, and the other win being a a first round KO of Flick. Flick is known as a submission guy as he won by submission on Contender Series and in his UFC debut in 2020, but that\u2019s all he has.<\/p>\n
In his last 16 fights he\u2019s won 10 of them, all by submission, and he\u2019s lost all the others so if he doesn\u2019t submit his opponent he loses.<\/p>\n
He took time off, and came back to the UFC after he got divorced, lost his job, and his life outside fighting wasn\u2019t going well at all. He looked terrible against Johnson, and Costa is no joke. He lost his UFC debut to Amir Albazi and that loss doesn\u2019t look bad at all.<\/p>\n
He took the fight on short notice and held his own in the first round before he got tired. With a full camp, he won\u2019t have cardio issues and his striking will be dominant over Flick.<\/p>\n
If he stays out of the submissions, he\u2019ll piece Flick apart and eventually get the knockout, and based on what I saw from Flick in his last fight, staying out of Flick\u2019s submission won\u2019t be difficult. <\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Denys Bondar -130 v Carlos Hernandez <\/strong><\/p>\nLot of unknowns here, but I\u2019m not very high on Hernandez\u2019s skill set as he really doesn\u2019t do much well. He won a split decision against Altamirano, and then got submitted in round 1 by Allan Nascimento, but beating Altamirano isn\u2019t that impressive.<\/p>\n
We had bet on Bondar in his UFC debut to beat Malcolm Gordon, but he broke his arm early in the fight in a scramble.<\/p>\n
Bondar comes from a pretty violent league where they allow quite a few things that the UFC doesn\u2019t allow so we know he\u2019s tough, and he won his eight previous fights before his UFC debut all by finish.<\/p>\n
I lean Bondar in this fight, but not enough for me to make an investment on him. This fight to not go the distance would be the way to go<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Modestas Bukauskas -195 v Zac Pauga<\/strong><\/p>\nI\u2019ve followed Pauga since week one on his season of The Ultimate Fighter, and he\u2019s decent, but he got knocked out by Muhammad Osman, and won a decision against Jordan Wright by having over 8 minutes of control, but it wasn\u2019t that impressive of a win.<\/p>\n
I think Bucauskas has him covered in this fight, and I don\u2019t see Bukauskas staying stationary to let Paugua control him. We correctly predicted Bukauskus to upset Tyson Pedro last fight by using his movement, speed and cardio to tire out Pedro and he did exactly that. I think he utilizes the same tools, and don\u2019t underestimate the motivation of Modestas.<\/p>\n
He was cut from the UFC, won some regional fights to get another chance in the UFC, and based on how good he looked against Pedro, I think he\u2019s found new life and a real sense of controlled urgency. I think he wins here, and if you want a better price, take him to win by decision.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Ronnie Lawrence -180 over Dan Argueta<\/strong><\/p>\nTwo grapplers here so expect a long fight so I will say this fight is a To Start Round 2 parlay piece for sure. As for the side, I think it\u2019s dog or pass.<\/p>\n
Lawrence got dominated last fight when Kakhramonov pushed the offense forward, and while Argueta isn\u2019t nearly as good as Kakhramonov, he will get aggressive early and he\u2019ll try and crowd Lawrence and work his own wrestling game.<\/p>\n
Argueta can gas himself so I don\u2019t totally trust him, but I definitely don\u2019t trust Lawrence at -180. I\u2019ll take this fight to start round 2 and I\u2019ll parlay it with a few other props<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Tereza Bleda -240 v Gabriella Fernandez<\/strong><\/p>\nFernandez lost her debut to Jasmine Jasudavicius by getting taken down four times, but that loss doesn\u2019t look as bad now after Jasmine dominated Miranda Maverick.<\/p>\n
Bleda\u2019s style is similar to Jasmine\u2019s in that she likes to grapple, get takedowns, and stay on the ground. However, I don\u2019t think she\u2019s as good as Jasmine. She\u2019s only 21 years old and I wonder if she\u2019s been elevated too early.<\/p>\n
She got knocked out by Natalia Silva in her last fight, but the concern with Bleda is cardio. She gasses pretty easily, and Fernandes is a great striker that will torch Bleda on the feet if she stuffs takedowns.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll take the underdog in this one as I think Fernandes can land enough strikes to damage Bleda, and Fernandes has one thing to work on in camp for this fight\u2026takedown defense. If she\u2019s able to make Bleda work hard for takedowns, Bleda will gas and if she keeps it on the feet look for a KO from Fernandes<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Christian Quinonez -161 v Kyung Ho Kang<\/strong><\/p>\nQuinonez has a lot of stoppages in his short career, but I think Kang can use his jab and toughness to extend the fight. Christian will probably go for takedowns as that\u2019s been a problem for Kang in the past.<\/p>\n
I lean Quinonez in this fight, but the -161 is a bit steep. I also think the fight duration props are trouble because Quinonez has early stoppages, but Kang is better than those other opponents. My best advice is to stay away from this fight<\/strong>. It should be exciting, but unbeatable for me. <\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Raoni Barcelos -211 v Mies Johns<\/strong><\/p>\nBarcelos is towards the end of this career and he\u2019s lost some fights he wouldn\u2019t have a few years ago, and there\u2019s no way I\u2019m betting on him at -211.<\/p>\n
Miles Johns is a decent fighter, and even though Johns is listed as a wrestler, I think Barcelos might go for takedowns more in this fight.<\/p>\n
I won\u2019t bet a side on this one, but this is a must add to the To Start Round 2 parlays. Every fight for Miles Johns, 15 of them, has started round 2, and Barcelos has one fight since 2015 that\u2019s finished in round 1.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Muslim Salhikov -182 v Nicolas Dalby<\/strong><\/p>\nSalhikov is coming off a KO win, but it was against Andre Fialho who is being exposed as not a good UFC fighter. Salhikov is low volume, he can wrestle, but he\u2019s 39 years old.<\/p>\n
Dalby is 4-1 in the UFC, and will compete against Salhikov fairly even, but I think early on Salhikov will have the edge in the clinch and striking. That being said, this is another perfect fight to start round 2.<\/p>\n
I lean Salhikov in this one, but I think it could be a bit sweaty in the third round as the 39 year old may slow down if the pace is good in the first two rounds.<\/p>\n
Dalby would be wise to push Salhikov hard in round 1 and try and pull ahead late, but that\u2019s asking a lot against a big, tough guy who can strike, clinch and wrestle. Just take this one to start round 2, or take it to go the distance at a much better price<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Pat Sabbatini -180 v Lukas Almeida\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\nI\u2019m wiling to lay the juice on this one with Sabbatini. Sabbatini had won six fights in a\u00a0 row before Damon Jackson sparked him in round 1 in September to get the win, but I\u00a0 expect a nice return from Pat here.<\/span><\/p>\n He\u2019ll shoot for takedowns all fight, and if he gets\u00a0 Almeida down he should be able to keep him there for the rest of the round. <\/span><\/p>\nAlmeida lost to a good fighter on the Contender Series, and got the win a year ago in his UFC\u00a0 debut, but I don\u2019t see his takedown defense holding up. Take Sabbatini all day in this\u00a0 one.<\/span><\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Christian Leroy Duncan -147 v Armen Petrosyan<\/strong><\/p>\nThis fight worries me with Duncan being a favorite. We really haven\u2019t seen him in a real fight with a legit fighter. Todorovic got hurt early into the fight in Duncan\u2019s UFC debut, and before that he just hasn\u2019t faced great competition.<\/p>\n
You\u2019re probably not going to tell everyone the story about an amazing, exciting Armen Petrosyan fight in the UFC, but you may cash a ticket on him this week as an underdog.<\/p>\n
Petrosyan\u2019s loss in the UFC is to Caio Borrallho, which doesn\u2019t look bad at all now. He recently beat AJ Dobson by outlanding him 118-58 in significant strikes, and I think he\u2019s going to give Duncan some strikes and power that Duncan hasn\u2019t had before.<\/p>\n
Duncan will no doubt push forward at the beginning trying to set the tone, but I think Petrosyan can weather the storm and take Duncan into deeper waters and if he does, I like Petrosyan to have the better cardio and energy in round 3. This fight is close to a coin flip in my opinion, I see Petrosyan winning a close decision<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n