David Dvorak -275 v Steve Erceg<\/strong><\/p>\nErceg takes this fight as Matt Schnell dropped out, and all signs point to a Dvorak win, but I would be cautious with this fight. Erceg comes from Australia, and is a tough guy who likes to push fighters against the fence and make them clinch and try and get takedowns and make the fight dirty.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s tall for the division so he\u2019s had success with this style against lesser fighters, but Dvorak is faster and better than anyone he\u2019s faced and I doubt Dvorak accepts that position.<\/p>\n
Dvorak\u2019s speed on the feet should allow him to stick and move and piece up Erceg on the feet en route to victory. My pause with this bet is that we keep seeing these types of underdogs perform well.<\/p>\n
We saw Naimov beat Mullarkey thanks to one of the worst early stoppages I\u2019ve ever seen, but it still goes down as a short notice replacement underdog winning, and we\u2019ve seen Rolando Bedoya almost beat Khaos Wiliams as a big underdog, and Diego Lopes almost beat Mover Evloev as a big underdog.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll pass on playing Dvorak here, but I think this fight to start round two is a fantastic parlay piece<\/strong> as Dvorak isn\u2019t a finisher, and Erceg won\u2019t be able to submit Dvorak like he has his opponents in EMMA.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Blake Bilder -220 v Kyle Nelson<\/strong><\/p>\nBilder should dominate this match as Kyle Nelson is not very good. Nelson has non effective striking and he pushes guys against the cage without doing damage, and if he gets a fighter on the ground they can get up pretty easily.<\/p>\n
He is 1-4-1 in the UFC and should be 1-5 as the tie was due to his opponent getting a point taken away when Nelson was losing.<\/p>\n
Bilder is much faster on the feet, and has good takedown defense so if Nelson tries that level change he does every fight, Bilder should be able to block it and keep the fight on the feet where Bilder\u2019s big cardio advantage will show in rounds two and three. Bider should roll here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Miranda Maverick -295 v Jasmine Jasudavicius<\/strong><\/p>\nI\u2019m a big Maverick fan, but I don\u2019t agree with this price. Maverick\u2019s weakness has been her takedown defense and Jasmine will surely test it as she beat Fernandes in her last fight with takedowns. Maverick is way better than Fernandes, and Miranda has good takedown and ground game herself, but I\u2019m not willing to pay this price. Taking this fight to go the distance is about the same price as Maverick ML<\/strong>, and I feel better about that wager.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Nassourdine Imavov -140 v Chris Curtis<\/strong><\/p>\nThis is a fascinating fight as I\u2019m surprised that Curtis is taking a fight so soon after the war that he and Gastelum had, but there\u2019s a reason he took this fight, and I believe it has to do with who Imavov last fought.<\/p>\n
Imavov lost to Sean Strickland who is Chris Curtis\u2019s best friend and training partner. We saw this play out when Curtis fought Brendan Allen and Strickland had beaten Allen previously, and Strickland was ringside for Curtis coaching him and Curtis knocked out Allen.<\/p>\n
Strickland certain knows the weak spots of Imavov and Curtis has to be working on exploiting those weaknesses. Curtis has incredible takedown defense, and a great stand up game and I think he can beat Imavov as the underdog.<\/p>\n
Imavov is 4-2 in the UFC with wins over Jordan Williams, Ian Heinish, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Joaquin Buckey\u2026not impressive to me. He\u2019s lost to Phil Hawes and Sean Strickland and I think Curtis hands him his third loss in a close fight that stays on the feet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Marc-Andre Barriault -135 v Eryk Anders<\/strong><\/p>\nThis should be a pretty grueling, and grinding matchup between these two and I like Barriault to come out on top.<\/p>\n
Anders has cardio issues, and we saw Barriault fight another fighter with cardio issues in Julian Marquez, and Barriault bided his time in the first round, saved his energy and then pounced in round two to get the KO. Anders should have a little better cardio, but I don\u2019t trust him.<\/p>\n
Barriault should control the action when these two get in the cinch He has two wins in his last six fights, and those were against Darren Stewart and Kyle Daukaus who aren\u2019t in the UFC anymore. Barriault is more complete, I like him in this matchup<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Dan Ige -250 v Nate Landwehr<\/strong><\/p>\nI expect a war in this one. Dan Ige had lost three straight before sparking Damon Jackson unconscious in his last fight, and Ige needs to rip off a few more wins to get back to title contention.<\/p>\n
Landwehr was plagued early in his career by going too hard too early, but he\u2019s settled down and it\u2019s resulted in three straight wins, His fight against Onama was an insane battle as both guys looked dead multiple times in the fight, but they somehow made it to the end where Nate got the win.<\/p>\n
His next fight was against a bad opponent, but he took care of business and I\u2019m pretty surprised to see -250 as the price on Ige.<\/p>\n
Both guys will be standing and striking for most of the fight I believe, but if anyone is going to take the other down I have to believe it\u2019s Nate, and he may be able to steal a round or two with that.<\/p>\n
Ige probably has a touch more power, but with Nate\u2019s toughness and improvement with patience, I don\u2019t think this price is accurate as he\u2019s a live dog. It\u2019s dog or pass on the ML<\/strong>, and I don\u2019t want to bet any time props so I\u2019ll probably just watch and enjoy this fight with no money involved.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Mike Mallot -205 v Adam Fugitt<\/strong><\/p>\nMallot should win here as I think he\u2019s more explosive, and he has more paths to victory, but I have enough concerns to make me not bet this fight.<\/p>\n
Mallot is one of the draws on this Canadian card as he was one of the fighters pushing hardest for a Canadian event, and on paper he should win, but Fugitt isn\u2019t a pushover. First off, he\u2019s really tough and can take punishment and that concerns me because Mallot has only been out of the first round one time, and that was in 2015.<\/p>\n
My concern is we haven\u2019t seen his cardio tested, and if it does get out of the first round, Fugitt will absolutely test that cardio. Fugitt made it into the third round before getting knocked out by Michael Morales in 2022, but he got nice first round win against Kinoshita in February.<\/p>\n
Fugitt\u2019s striking isn\u2019t super crisp, and his take down game is OK, but if he can avoid Mallot\u2019s submission game, I think he makes this a serious battle as the fight goes on.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s Mallot by finish early in this fight or a very close fight that goes to the judges so if you\u2019re going to bet on Mallott take him inside the distance<\/strong> to get better value.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Beneil Dariush -140 v Charles Oliveira<\/strong><\/p>\nI can spend hours breaking down this fight, and how I think it plays out, but I\u2019ll just keep it simple. The more money that comes in on Dariush, the more I like Oliveira. He\u2019s 11-1 in his last 12 fights with his one loss being to Islam Makhachev.<\/p>\n
Dariush is on an eight fight winning streak, but the level of competition isn\u2019t even close to Oliveira. His last fight against Gamrot was an incredible performance, but I can\u2019t pass up taking Oliveira at plus money.<\/p>\n
This is a guy who has finished Michael Chandler, Dustin Poireir and Justin Gaethje in three straight fights, I see no reason why he can\u2019t submit Dariush. It\u2019s dog or pass in this one for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Amanda Nunes -310 v Irene Aldana<\/strong><\/p>\nAldana steps in short notice, and if Amanda Nunes is dialed in, she should wipe the octagon with Aldana. Aldana is coming off a strange win against Chiasson where she may have been losing before hitting an awkward body shot late in the fight that stopped Chiasson, but the speed and power just isn\u2019t there against Amanda Nunes.<\/p>\n
Nunes lost to Julianna Pena in 2021 (the only fight I consider to be a fixed fight), and in her rematch she looked like her old self as she pummeled Pena for five straight rounds. The only question for me in this fight is what is the mindset of Amanda Nunes.<\/p>\n
If we think she\u2019s 100% focused, this fight will be a walk in the park. If she\u2019s not fully ready to go, Aldana could absolutely land some power shots and stop Nunes. Nunes has had almost a year off, and I\u2019m betting that she comes in ready to rock.<\/p>\n
However, I will have the live lines up and if Nunes looks slow and sloppy at the beginning I will quickly get on Aldana live. It\u2019s a cautious bet on Nunes for me with the option to get out of the bet on the live lines<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Fights to Start Round Two Parlay:<\/h3>\n
Dvorak vs Erceg\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\nImavov vs Curtis\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\nMaverick vs Jasudavicius<\/strong><\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
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