{"id":18569,"date":"2023-05-09T14:12:51","date_gmt":"2023-05-09T18:12:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=18569"},"modified":"2023-05-09T14:12:53","modified_gmt":"2023-05-09T18:12:53","slug":"ufc-fight-night-predictions-picks-and-betting-odds-may-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-predictions-picks-and-betting-odds-may-13\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds May 13"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang<\/a> gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for May 13 with Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Jailton Almeida headlining the event. The main card starts up at 3pm ET from the Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC.<\/span><\/p>\n

Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV<\/a> is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Jailton Almeida Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Saturday, May 13<\/th>\nUFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars<\/a>)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Moneyline:<\/td>\nJairzinho Rozenstruik +400 vs Jailton Almeida -550<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rounds:<\/td>\n1.5 Rounds (Over +160 \/ Under -195)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fight Time:<\/td>\nMain Card Starts at 3:00pm ET \/ 12:00pm PT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arena:<\/td>\nSpectrum Center, Charlotte, NC<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TV:<\/td>\nABC & ESPN+<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis<\/h2>\n

Another winning week for us as we went 1-0 on Wagertalk official plays bringing our\u00a0 record to 25-13 in 2023 for +27 units, and we have a 5% Best Bet up that we\u2019re very\u00a0 excited for as we\u2019ve been waiting for a couple weeks to fire on this one. <\/span><\/p>\n

You can grab the play here: <\/span>http:\/\/wt.buzz\/al<\/span> <\/a><\/p>\n

Finish Of The Week: Carlos Ulberg will finish Ihor Potieria<\/strong><\/h3>\n

I\u2019m really high on Ulberg, and I love this matchup for him. He lost his UFC debut against Kennedy Nzechukwu when he had big time cardio issues and he gassed himself getting too over zealous, but he has looked much more patient since then and is getting so much better with each fight. <\/span><\/p>\n

His next fight after Kennedy, he focused on his cardio and went the distance against Cherant in a unanimous win, and the next two fights he showed his progression with striking as he knocked out Nchukwi in the first round, and then put on an impressive first round against Nebumereanu where he landed hard leg kicks and got the KO. <\/span><\/p>\n

What I loved about that fight was that Negumereanu wanted to grapple and Ulberg stayed away and used his stance control beautifully to control the fight from the beginning setting up his jab and finishing shots. <\/span><\/p>\n

Potieria got knocked out by Negumereanu two fights ago as Potieria got taken down, and got exhausted until Negumereanu knocked him out in round 2. <\/span><\/p>\n

His next fight he got a complete layup as he fought Shogun Rua in Rua\u2019s retirement fight, which was a joke. Rua was way too old, and has lost three straight and Potieria got the finish in round 1. <\/span><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t like the skill set of Potieria compared to Ulberg, I think Ulberg has a big advantage in striking, and especially with the leg kicks he demonstrated in the last fight. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ulberg has an incredible group of fighters he trains with, including Adesanya, and his power and newly found patience should let him control the fight and set up the knockout over Potieria who just isn\u2019t as polished as Ulberg and has too many holes in his game. I like Ulberg to roll here.<\/span><\/p>\n

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions<\/span><\/h3>\n

Jailton Almeida -550 v Jairzinho Rozenstruik<\/strong><\/p>\n

The only thing I like in this fight is for it to not go the distance. Rozenstruik has been to decision three times in 17 fights, and Almeida has seen the third round once in 20 fights.<\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t put Almeida in your parlays as his level of competition has been really bad (Shamil Bdurakhimov, Anton Turkalj, and Parker Porter, Danilo Marques) in the UFC, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if Rozenstruik\u2019s striking gets Almeida to back off at the start of the fight.<\/p>\n

If Rozenstruik doesn\u2019t damage him early then Almeida will eventually get the fight to the ground where a finish is imminent. I won\u2019t be playing a side, I\u2019ll just look to use NOT TO GO THE DISTANCE as a parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Anthony Smith -105 v Johnny Walker -115<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s another fight that shouldn\u2019t go the distance as Johnny Walker has three decisions in 27 fights including three first round finishes in a row. Anthony Smith has three fights in a row that finished early so the trend is our friend in this one.<\/p>\n

I honestly don\u2019t know what to expect from Anthony Smith in this fight as the last time we saw him he broke his ankle against Ankalaev, but I would think he would want to get Walker down on the mat to hunt submissions like he did against Spann and Clark, but the 34 year old has a lot of wear and tear on his body and I don\u2019t trust him.<\/p>\n

Walker has two straight wins, but his chin hasn\u2019t been tested in either of those fights and Smith will surely want to throw some jabs to see how Walker reacts. I don\u2019t want to have any of my money on either of these guys<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ian Garry -250 v Daniel Rodriguez +200<\/strong><\/p>\n

I\u2019m not real high on either one of these guys despite their records. Garry is 11-0 and while he is getting better, I just see holes in his game. He uses his length well, but I don\u2019t think his power scares anyone, especially early in the fight.<\/p>\n

He hasn\u2019t shown much with grappling, and his opponents haven\u2019t been good to take advantage of his weak striking defense. He\u2019s done what\u2019s expected, but I feel like we just kinda get the bare minimum out of his performances.<\/p>\n

Rodriguez is another that is a bit lackluster in my opinion as he got submitted by Magny last fight, and before that he won against Li Jingliang in a fight I\u2019m not sure he won.<\/p>\n

I really don\u2019t know what he does great as his striking is decent, but his ground game isn\u2019t very good, and this is a guy that went the distance against Mike Perry I would take this fight to start round 2 or maybe even go the distance as I don\u2019t think either guy can finish each other. If I had to pick a fighter, I would lean Garry by decision, but there\u2019s no chance I\u2019m laying -250<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mackenzie Dern -185 v Angela Hill +150<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pretty simple fight here. If Angela Hill can avoid the submission and keep it on the feet, she should win by decision.<\/p>\n

Dern is going to have to instigate the takedown and that\u2019s been a problem for her, and if she doesn\u2019t get the takedown she can gas herself.<\/p>\n

Hill is coming off of two straight wins in a bit of a resurgence for the 38 year old, and I think there\u2019s value in her at +150<\/strong> as her striking has been good in those two fights, but it all comes down to her takedown defense. I think she can stay out of trouble and squeak out a close win.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Court McGee -175 v Matt Brown<\/strong><\/p>\n

I have no opinion on this fight, I won\u2019t be betting on it and I suggest you do the same<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Karl Williams-430\u00a0 v Chase Sherman +330<\/strong><\/p>\n

Williams took out collegiate wrestler Jimmy Lawson on Contender series on short notice by out wrestling the wrestler, and then won his UFC debut by out wrestling Brzeski for three rounds and I think he does something similar here.<\/p>\n

Chase Sherman likes to strike on the feet, and does not like the fight to be on the ground as evident by him getting submitted in the first by Jake Collier and Alexandr Romanov.<\/p>\n

His only win in his last six fights was when he knocked out Jared Vanderaa (who isn\u2019t in the UFC anymore), and in his last fight he lost to Waldo Cortes-Acosta who was taking the fight on short notice and only a few weeks after his previous fight.<\/p>\n

Williams should waste no time getting this to the ground, and if Williams manages his own gas tank, he should wear out Sherman on the ground and get the win.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know if Williams has the submission game to finish Sherman, but I think he makes this a very uncomfortable fight for Sherman en route to a win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Natan Levy -300 v Pete Rodriguez +240<\/strong><\/p>\n

We really don\u2019t know what to make of Pete Rodriguez as his two fights in the UFC were on the opposite sides of the spectrum. He fought part time photographer Mike Jackson and knocked him out, and then got knocked out by elite fighter Jack Maddalena.<\/p>\n

This will show us more of what he\u2019s got, but it\u2019s a stay away for me. Rodriguez has fast hands and solid boxing, and Levy is more of a complete MMA fighter with ok striking and decent grappling.<\/p>\n

My instinct says that the fighter with the more complete game wins, but Rodriguez could piece him up on the feet and win a stand up battle so I\u2019ll stay away completely<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ji Yeon Kim -250 v Mandy Bohm +200<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bohm is a bad fighter and Kim has lost four in row so I\u2019ll pass on this one. This fight to start round 2 is a good parlay piece though.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gabe Green -125 v Bryan Battle<\/strong><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve enjoyed watching Battle progress from TUF to a legit UFC fighter as he was touted as a great athlete who absorbs info and coaches love coaching him because he gets better all the time, and he\u2019s shown now he can wrestle and grapple, and he can knock people out, and he took his first loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov which there\u2019s no shame in as Rinat is an animal.<\/p>\n

This is a great fight as Green is tough as hell and loves to stand and strike, and he can absorb shots and give them out, but I give the edge to Battle who I think can win a couple rounds with his takedowns and grappling.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m a fan of both guys, and since both are so tough I see this going the distance with Battle winning a very close one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jessica-Rose Clark -150 v Tainara Lisboa +125<\/strong><\/p>\n

Clark at -150 is laughable, especially when she\u2019s been submitted in her last two fights and she\u2019s fighting a fighter who loves takedowns.<\/p>\n

The competition for Lisboa has been terrible, but I like her skill sets, and one of her losses was to Normal Dumont in her first fight ever, and crazy enough she fought Valentina Shevchenko in 2010 in a Muay Thai match where she went to decision.<\/p>\n

Rose-Clark has no take down defense, but she should be better on her feet, and she\u2019ll have to keep it there because Lisboa has good ground game and will keep Clark on the ground if it gets there. I\u2019ll stay away from this fight, but it\u2019s dog or pass<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n

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