WagerTalk college football handicapper Las Vegas Cris, with the assistance of Ron W, offers his Wyoming vs Kent State Famous Idaho Potato Bowl betting preview for Tuesday, December 21. At the time of posting, the Cowboys from the Mountain West have climbed to a 3.5-point favorite over the Golden Flashes from the MAC, with the total sitting at 59.5 points.<\/p>\n
Stay on top of the latest College Football<\/a> updates direct from Las Vegas!<\/em><\/p>\n Kent State can be fun to watch. Just 7-6, they were still able to play for the MAC title despite putting up some alarming defensive numbers. Wyoming disappointed, going 6-6. They scored 3 points vs. New Mexico as a 20 point favorite, lost by 24 to Hawaii as a 10.5 favorite, and won 24-22 vs. lowly U Conn as a whopping 31 point favorite. Do they really belong in a bowl game?<\/p>\n Speaking of \u201cearning\u201d a bowl bid, Kent State had an overall point ratio of 32.5-35. As expected, they were outscored 108-33 vs. Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland. But it\u2019s not a good sign when you played four MAC teams that became bowl eligible, and in five games (played NIU twice), you went 2-3, with a 184-253 point ratio!<\/p>\n For the season, the rush ratio was 5.3-4.7, the pass D approached 63% and the sack ratio was poor at 20-36. They were helped by a +13 turnover ratio and a solid kicking game (20-25). Veteran QB Crum can put up points, but \u201conly\u201d threw 16 TD passes vs. this competition. I like his ability to tuck and run with the ball and I think that will be on display in this bowl game. Their top two RB\u2019s combined for nearly 1,900 yards, and a hefty yards-per-carry average.<\/p>\n As you will see below, Wyoming is vulnerable to the run. My projections have Crum passing 16-26, and Kent St looking to move the ball on the ground. They do have three capable WR\u2019s when they choose to throw the ball. Wyoming is also run-centric. Kent St will have its hands full defending Wyoming\u2019s rush attack, but maybe they get a partial break vs. the pass.<\/p>\n Wyoming played two games this year vs. MAC teams. They won at NIU 50-43 and hosted Ball St and beat them 45-12. Going 2-6 in Mountain West play was completely unexpected. They went 1-4 vs. Mountain West bowl teams, with a 17-24 point ratio.<\/p>\n The Cowboys did not score much in 2021, but their best efforts came when facing teams with suspect run defenses. All stout run defenses held them back. Wyoming ran 4.85 per carry (corrected for sacks using my formula), and that bodes well vs. Kent St\u2019s rush defense. RB Valladay has been a workhorse in his career, but despite his 5.2 yards-per-carry figure, he\u2019s not my favorite RB on this team. RB Swen has cut into his workload, and runs for nearly 6.0 yards-per-carry.<\/p>\n The big question will be the weather. From what I\u2019ve seen, midday temperatures will be in the high 30\u2019s, with a 20% chance of snow. This may sound strange, but Wyoming might prefer good footing for this game to optimize their rush attack.<\/p>\n The Cowboys have used two QB\u2019s over at least the past two seasons. For now, it looks like Levi Williams will get the nod. He\u2019s been more accurate this year, greatly improving his pass %, but is still more dynamic rushing the football. With Kent St having just 20 defensive sacks, and Wyoming allowing just that same number, I feel Williams will not only have a fairly clean pocket, but will also be able to see run lanes open up.<\/p>\n In the pass game, I have him projected to go 15-24, for 205 yards and a TD, but also with one interception. Long gainers are possible in the pass game with Kent likely needed to stack the box. WR Neyor is their leading WR and he averages over 20 yards per reception. This has NOT been one of Wyoming\u2019s best defenses, maybe partly because their stout defensive coordinator left to go to WSU, and is now their new Head Coach. Wyoming\u2019s previous four seasons saw them allowing a composite average of just 3.6 yards-per-carry. This year they allowed 4.6 per carry (all figures corrected for sacks). That clearly gives Kent St an opportunity for run-pass balance.<\/p>\n On the flip side, the pass D% was 57.7%, and it usually is in the low 60\u2019s. They did not face great QB\u2019s often however. Fresno\u2019s QB was 15-28. Boise\u2019s QB was 23-32. These are the two best comparisons\u2019 when charting Kent St QB Crum. Wyoming\u2019s overall sack ratio was 20-20. Their kicker was 9-13, and 0-4 beyond 30 yards. That\u2019s not good. The turnover ratio was -3.<\/p>\n Kent State MUST control clock, keeping Wyoming\u2019s rush attack off the field. Neither team has mounted much of a sack presence, but Kent St has to be careful as they allowed 36 on the year to mostly inferior competition. Wyoming has been turnover prone. Can Kent St take advantage in this game?<\/p>\n For Wyoming, this comes down 1st to their QB. His run skill set is the dynamic that could make Wyoming tough to defend. If he can hit 1-2 big pass plays, as he has done on occasion, Wyoming can replicate their stout scoring offense vs. MAC competition. Wyoming\u2019s kicking game has been a liability from outside 30 yards. As a run-1st team, they are at a disadvantage if facing 4th and long from anywhere outside Kent St\u2019s 15 yard line.<\/p>\n Finishing drives and winning on the early downs will be critical. The point D has been decent, but Kent St offers at least some run-pass balance, so Wyoming may need to overachieve vs. Kent St\u2019s rush attack.<\/p>\n I like that Wyoming plays much better vs. teams with suspect run defenses, but the overall rush data supports Kent St. Kent St\u2019s non-conference schedule was stronger than Wyoming\u2019s, and balances out the MAC\u2019s lower overall rating as compared with the Mountain West. The eye test says Wyoming can put up 38 points vs. Kent St, but it\u2019s hard to go against the rush data, which has been a perfect 7-0 in Wyoming games for 2021, and is on a 48-20 overall run in their games.<\/p>\n Instead, I\u2019ll have a strong lean with the OVER 58.5, as long as the weather cooperates. With minimal pass rush coming from both sides, and little resistance expected from either rush defense, it will only take a couple of splash pass plays to put the over in play.<\/p>\n \ud83c\udf84Looking to take your betting to the next level in 2022? Check out our End-of-Year special: Buy a 90-Day All-Access pass from your favorite handicapper, and we’ll double it to 180 days at no additional cost. All plays. All games. All sports. \u2014 WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) December 16, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n
\n Famous Idaho Potato Bowl<\/th>\n Betting Notes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n \n Point Spread:<\/td>\n Wyoming Cowboys -3.5 vs Kent State Golden Flashes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Total:<\/td>\n 59.5 Points<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Game Time:<\/td>\n 3:30pm ET \/ 12:30pm PT on Tuesday, December 21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Stadium:<\/td>\n Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n TV:<\/td>\n ESPN<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Analysis<\/h2>\n
Kent State Golden Flashes<\/h3>\n
Wyoming Cowboys<\/h3>\n
Keys to the Potato Bowl<\/h3>\n
Potato Bowl Prediction<\/h2>\n
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