Last week we focused on overs as the distance props seemed to make more sense to\u00a0 us when we handicapped, I would say there are a lot of fights I don\u2019t have strong\u00a0 opinions on, but there are several that I have very strong opinions on with results and\u00a0 distances. <\/span><\/p>\nKO Of The Week: Francis Marshall Will KO William Gomis<\/h3>\n
Francis Marshall is a legit prospect who is 7-0 with five finishes, and he has power on the feet and a great ground game.<\/p>\n
He made it on Contender Series and put on a great showing as he dominated Connor Matthews. It went down as a decision win, but he beat up Matthews real good and bloodied him up good.<\/p>\n
In his UFC debut he fought Marcelo Rojo who isn\u2019t great, but is a veteran who is 16-10 in his career. Marshall looked a bit tentative in his UFC debut, but quickly settled and KO\u2019d Rojo in the second showing off his power.<\/p>\n
Gomis doesn\u2019t have power that scares anyone at the UFC level. He\u2019s fought really bad competition and is a French fighter that got his first UFC fight because they had an event in Paris last year.<\/p>\n
He likes to take guys down, but doesn\u2019t have good submission skills or vicious ground and poundl. Marshall is better everywhere, and can finish anywhere this fight goes.<\/p>\n
I expect Marshall to realize real quick that Gomis doesn\u2019t have the power to finish so Marshall should be able to tee off with his strikes and pressure forward to take it to the ground if he wants.<\/p>\n
Even if Gomis is able to get it to the ground, Marshall is too powerful for him and should be able to reverse position or just stand back up. Marshall has the much better offense, and I expect a finish from him in this one.<\/p>\n
Chito<\/h3>\n
For a good reason, Marlon Vera is a fan favourite, as his rise to UFC contention has been well documented, beating great talent at every corner and fighting the most challenging fights.<\/p>\n
Vera has drawn one of the most dreadful schedules of late as he's faced off with former champion Dominick Cruz and the likes of Sean O'Malley and Rob Font. But he's managed to defeat them all with the battering style that rarely sees him ever out of a fight.<\/p>\n
Vera has some excellent skills on the feet as he mixes his attacks up very well while boasting some strong BJJ understanding as he's secured three submission victories inside the octagon.<\/p>\n
Vera will be looking to create chaos and bring war out of Cory Sandhagen, where Vera is the best in the world.<\/p>\n
UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions<\/h2>\n
Brady Hiestand +115 v Batgerel Danaa -140<\/strong><\/p>\nI\u2019m not high on Heistand, and even though Danaa has lost two in a row, they were against opponents much better than Hiestand. Hiestand will have to get this to the ground to win, I think Danaa keeps it on the feet and gets the decision win.<\/p>\n
Karine Sivla -190 v Priscila Cachoeira +160\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\nThis should be a fun fight as both can finish fights. Cachoeira is 4-1 in her last five UFC\u00a0 fights, and three of her wins have been KOs. <\/span><\/p>\nHer loss was a submission loss to\u00a0 Robertson, and that\u2019s interesting because Silva is 2-0 in the UFC with two submission\u00a0 <\/span>wins. Either of these fighters can finish, but I would look at this fight to not go the\u00a0 distance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nMontel Jackson -600 v Rani Yahya +430\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\nI get that Yahya is 38, and Jackson should win, but Yahya is 5-1 in his last six UFC\u00a0 fights, and although he hasn\u2019t fought since late 2021 he has the grappling game to\u00a0 compete with Jackson. <\/span><\/p>\nJackson should be able to use his jab and length to establish\u00a0 distance on the feet, but on the ground this is much closer than -600. <\/span><\/p>\nJackson has\u00a0 never been finished and Yahya hasn\u2019t been finished since 2009 so take this one to go\u00a0 the distance, and avoid putting this in your parlays as the price isn\u2019t right.<\/span><\/p>\nRicky Glen -175 v Christos Giagos +145\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\nNeither of these guys have an impressive resume as Giagos has gotten smoked in his\u00a0 last two fights when he stepped up in competition which is the story of his UFC career.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\nHis losses are to some pretty big names (Charles Oliveira, Drakkar Klose, Arman\u00a0 Trarukyan, and Thiago Moises), but they were so lopsided it makes it hard to trust him.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\nGlen doesn\u2019t have a great resume as well, but his last fight against Dawson ended up a\u00a0 draw as he lost the first two rounds to Dawson and then got a 10-8 in the third to get the draw. His stamina was incredible in that fight, and for that reason I think he wins by taking Giagos down and wearing him out.<\/span><\/p>\nJeremiah Wells -110 v Matthew Semelsberger -110\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\nThis is a great spot for Wells to get a win over a UFC veteran. Semelsberger has fought\u00a0 some pretty bad fighters on his way to a 5-2 record, and the best two fighters he\u2019s faced\u00a0 he lost in unanimous decisions.<\/span><\/p>\n He\u2019s had underwhelming wins against Jake Matthews and AJ Fletcher and has massive holes in his striking defense. <\/span><\/p>\nWells has three finishes in his three UFC fights, and there\u2019s a possibility it happens again. Wells has massive\u00a0 power, and can exploit the lack of striking defense from Semelsberger. <\/span><\/p>\nI think this is a\u00a0 bad matchup for Matthew and I think this could start a stretch of fights where\u00a0 Semelsberger gets exposed and could lose a few fights in a row as he isn\u2019t fighting\u00a0 tomato cans anymore.<\/span><\/p>\nRicky Simon -140 v Song Yarding +115\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\nWe correctly predicted Simon to beat Jack Shore as an underdog as he\u2019s really improved his game since losing to Rob Font and Uriah Faber back to back in 2019.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\nThis fight will come down to if Song Yadong can withstand the chain wrestling and\u00a0 power of Simon. In his last fight. Yadong stepped up in competition and got worked\u00a0 over by Sandhagen until the doctor stopped the fight because of a deep cut above the eye. <\/span><\/p>\nHe showed toughness, and great cardio, but it also showed the 25 year old he\u00a0 wasn\u2019t ready for this level of fight as Sandhagen put on a striking clinic. <\/span><\/p>\nYadong\u2019s previous two wins were by KO, but they were against Marlon Moraes, who gets knocked <\/span>out by literally everyone right now, and against Julio Arce who is 3-4 in his last seven UFC fights. <\/span><\/p>\nSimon is in his prime at 30 years old and if he fights like he did against Shore, he\u2019ll get Yadong down and inflict enough damage to get the win, which is what I\u00a0 think he\u2019ll do. It should be a great fight, I\u2019ll side with Ricky in the co-main, but it\u2019s not\u00a0 anything I\u2019ll be betting on.<\/span><\/p>\nCurtis Blaydes -175 v Sergei Pavlovich +145\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\nCan Pavlovich land his kill shots before Blaydes gets him on the ground? That\u2019s what\u00a0 this fight comes down to. Blaydes has some fascinating results recently. <\/span><\/p>\nAspinall blew\u00a0 out his knee 15 seconds into the fight so he gets credit for a KO, before that he knocked\u00a0 out Chris Daukus who has gotten knocked out three games in a row, before that a decision win over Rozenstruik, and before that he got knocked out by Derrick Lewis.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\nPavlovich has never seen the second round in a UFC fight and has two KO\u2019s over Tuivasa and Lewis in his last two fights. <\/span><\/p>\nBlaydes can\u2019t stand and bang for very long\u00a0 against Sergei so this fight is going to come down to if Sergei lands his big shots right\u00a0 as the fight starts before Blaydes shoots for the takedown. <\/span><\/p>\nOnce it gets on the ground\u00a0 it\u2019s Blaydes all day. I won\u2019t be betting it, but the value is on Pavlovich to win to KO.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n
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