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Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV<\/a> is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n After an International Break, domestic action is set to resume in all of Europe\u2019s big soccer leagues this weekend.<\/p>\n As many of you know, I joined the esteemed Stoppage Time panel at WagerTalk TV<\/a> a few months ago. Our focus is typically on the big matches and top clubs throughout Europe each week.<\/p>\n The clubs at the bottom of the table deserve a shout as well. So what I am going to focus on here are the relegation battles in the English Premier League, Bundesliga (Germany), La Liga (Spain) and Serie A (Italy).<\/p>\n In all four of these leagues, the relegation battle is tight and it seems (to me) that there are more clubs in danger of dropping than a typical year. So let\u2019s go league by league and I\u2019ll offer a best bet on these relegation battles.<\/p>\n As a reminder, with the exception of the Bundesliga, it\u2019s the bottom three in each league that get relegated.<\/p>\n DraftKings currently lists nine clubs with +450 or better odds of being relegated.<\/p>\n This makes sense as there\u2019s now an 11-point gap separating the top 11 from the bottom nine. Incredibly, the bottom nine are separated by just four points. So this is the most wide open race of the four.<\/p>\n Southampton (-300)<\/strong> are overwhelming favorites to drop down. Given that the Saints have a better expected goal differential than 9th place Fulham, I think those odds are crazy.<\/p>\n Southampton may currently be last in the table, but they\u2019d be out of the drop zone entirely with a win over West Ham this weekend. They do have to face both Manchester City and Arsenal in April, however.<\/p>\n Bournemouth (-160)<\/strong> and Nottingham Forest (-110)<\/strong> are the two other clubs with a minus next to their odds. Bournemouth has the worst GD and fewest xPts (expected points) in the league and Nottingham is second worst in both categories.<\/p>\n I do expect both of these clubs to be sent back down to the Championship after just a one-year stay in the English top flight.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll go out on a limb and say that West Ham (+400)<\/strong>, Leicester City (+400)<\/strong> and Leeds United (+300)<\/strong> all avoid the relegation fate. I say that based on the underlying metrics, which say this trio has underperformed to this point and are due for better results.<\/p>\n Leeds has gotten the \u201cnew manager bounce,\u201d winning two of four under Javi Gracia. The one issue for West Ham is also navigating the Europa Conference League.<\/p>\n That leaves us with Everton (+175)<\/strong>, Wolves (+330)<\/strong> and Crystal Palace (+450)<\/strong>. That price on Palace looks juicy considering they are one of just two sides across England\u2019s top four tiers that have yet to win a league match in 2023 (and have yet to score more than one goal!).<\/p>\n The Eagles\u2019 next six fixtures are all against bottom nine sides. So they have a chance to save themselves.<\/p>\n Everton still has five matches remaining at Goodison Park – the home faithful certainly seemed to play a role in last year\u2019s survival bid. Wolves desperately need points this weekend at Nottingham Forest, otherwise home affairs against Palace and Everton basically become \u201cmust wins.\u201d<\/p>\n Prediction: Nottingham Forest to be Relegated (-110)<\/strong><\/p>\n Elche, 14 points clear of safety and on their fourth manager this season, is a lock for relegation. So much so that DraftKings isn\u2019t even offering odds on it anymore. Say hello to the Segunda Division.<\/p>\n That leaves us with two more spots to consider in Spain. Seven sides are separated by just three points. It is shocking to see Sevilla (+800)<\/strong> and Valencia (+550)<\/strong> among them. Valencia is the most underperforming side in the league, based on xGD and xPts.<\/p>\n I am stunned that Cadiz (+160)<\/strong> has escaped the bottom three for the time being. The Yellow Submarine currently occupies 15th position. But they are second worst in the league in both xGD and xPts.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve been one of the weakest sides in each of the three seasons back in the top flight and survived by just a single point in 2021\/22.<\/p>\n Real Valladolid (+150)<\/strong> and Almeria (-110)<\/strong> are the other sides to consider here. Valladolid were joint favorites with fellow newly promoted side Girona to be relegated at the start of the season.<\/p>\n While Girona has clearly overperformed, Valladolid has not. and Opta has the White & Violets with the second highest probability of being relegated.<\/p>\n Opta also doesn\u2019t really like Espanyol (+170)<\/strong> or Getafe (+300)<\/strong> relative to some of these other sides that I\u2019ve discussed. But I\u2019m not betting against either at the current prices.<\/p>\n Prediction: Real Valladolid to be relegated (+150)<\/strong><\/p>\n The bottom two here are automatically relegated while whoever finishes 16th (third to last) faces the third place finisher from the 2 in a two-leg relegation playoff.<\/p>\n Less than a month ago, I would have had Schalke (-250)<\/strong> and Bochum (+170)<\/strong> as the locks for the two automatic relegation spots, but the former has shockingly gone unbeaten over its last eight matches with two wins and six draws (including four 0-0).<\/p>\n Since the halfway point of the season, Schalke has posted the league\u2019s best defensive record with only four goals conceded 8.5 xGA. Oddsmakers still aren\u2019t buying them though, nor am I.<\/p>\n Bochum has beaten Koln and RB Leipzig over its last two matches and is now 14th, four points clear of safety, but considering they are last in xGD, xPts and actual GD, I love the idea of betting them at the current price.<\/p>\n Despite the consecutive clean sheets, they\u2019ve still conceded more goals (56) than any other Bundesliga side this season.<\/p>\n Hoffenheim (+170)<\/strong>, Stuttgart (+100)<\/strong> and Hertha Berlin (-125)<\/strong> are the other considerations here. Believe it or not, Hoffenheim was actually fourth in the league following matchday 10. Since then, they have just one win and collected five points (both league worsts).<\/p>\n Stuttgart, currently last for the first time all season, have been incredibly unlucky. They are sixth in the league in xGA, but have conceded 10 more goals than expected. Their luck has to turn, no?<\/p>\n Hertha is the only side in the bottom five to have stuck with the same manager all season, but the clock is ticking on Sandro Schwarz as his team has the worst defensive record in the league (28 goals allowed) since the World Cup break.<\/p>\n Last year, they had to win the relegation playoff against Hamburg to stay in the top flight. It may be a similar fate at the end of this season.<\/p>\n Prediction: Bochum to be relegated (+170) <\/b><\/p>\n OK, so there\u2019s a lot less drama over in Italy where Sampdoria and Cremonese are virtual locks to be relegated.<\/p>\n Those two sides currently face 11 and 9 point gaps to safety. Considering Cremonese has just one win all season, it\u2019s all over but the shouting for them. Samp has the worst goal differential (-28) in the league.<\/p>\n So can Hellas Verona (-200 to be relegated)<\/strong> survive? They have to make up a five-point gap on Spezia. Verona actually has a much better xGD than the other teams in the bottom five of the table. So they\u2019ve been unlucky to this point. The remaining set of fixtures, save for a trip to Cremonese, are not all that favorable though.<\/p>\n But I think betting against Spezia (+250)<\/strong> is the better option. Spezia has the fewest number of xPts (per Understat) in Serie A. Taking a flier on Salernitana (+550)<\/strong> is really tempting as they have the worst xGD in the league.<\/p>\n Prediction: Spezia to be relegated (+250)<\/strong><\/p>\n For more free soccer picks, check out WagerTalk’s free picks page<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n$1250 On Us Offer from Caesars Sportsbook & $500 2nd Chance Free Bets from BetRivers\u00a0<\/h3>\n
European Soccer Relegation Betting Preview<\/h2>\n
Premier League Relegation Prediction<\/h3>\n
La Liga Relegation Prediction<\/h3>\n
German Bundesliga Relegation Prediction<\/h3>\n
Serie A Relegation Prediction<\/h3>\n
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