{"id":16613,"date":"2023-03-07T10:22:59","date_gmt":"2023-03-07T15:22:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=16613"},"modified":"2023-03-07T10:23:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-07T15:23:00","slug":"the-players-championship-predictions-expert-betting-picks-and-odds-march-9-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/golf\/the-players-championship-predictions-expert-betting-picks-and-odds-march-9-12\/","title":{"rendered":"The Players Championship Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds March 9-12"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>The Players Championship Betting Preview<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The Players Championship teeing off from TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the The Players Championship!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Stay on top of the latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/golf\">Golf<\/a> updates direct from Las Vegas!<\/em><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>The Players Championship<\/th>\n<th>PGA Tour Betting Notes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>When:<\/td>\n<td>March 9-12, 2023<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Where:<\/td>\n<td>TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Defending Champ:<\/td>\n<td>Cam Smith (LIV Tour)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Current Favorite:<\/td>\n<td>Rory McIlroy (+900 at <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/draftkings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DraftKings<\/a>)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>TV:<\/td>\n<td>Golf Channel &amp; NBC<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>The Players Championship Odds Board<\/h2>\n<p>Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/fanduel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FanDuel<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/draftkings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DraftKings<\/a>)<br \/>\nJon Rahm +3.31 (+900)<br \/>\nRory McIlroy +2.77 (+1000)<br \/>\nScottie Scheffler +2.70 (+1100)<br \/>\nPatrick Cantlay +2.39 (+1800)<br \/>\nTony Finau +2.30 (+3000)<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Max Homa <\/span>+2.22 (+2200)<br \/>\nXander Schauffele +2.09 (+2600)<br \/>\nJason Day +2.05 (+3300)<br \/>\nCollin Morikawa +1.90 (+2800)<br \/>\nJustin Thomas +1.81 (+1900)<\/p>\n<h3>The Players Championship Course and Field &#8211; TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida)<\/h3>\n<p>From <a href=\"https:\/\/wt.buzz\/nb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nick Borrman<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I\u2019ll start this week\u2019s article with a quick reminder. When looking at last year\u2019s results, take them with a BIG asterisk as the luck of the tee time draw had the biggest effect on a tournament result that we have seen in a long, long time.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bad weather affected both the first and second rounds and the same wave of players got the worst of it.\u00a0 If someone you like this week missed the cut last year, don\u2019t sweat it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, and you will hear this from more than just me, Sawgrass is one of the most volatile tournaments on the PGA TOUR. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Leaderboards rarely look the same year over year and never has a winner repeated as champion.\u00a0 That statement alone tells the story. Bottom line, this is not a \u2018horse for the course\u2019 venue.\u00a0 Here are some specific trends that speak to this point:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Only three players in the entire field have made the cut in each of the last five editions: Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Keegan Bradley.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Spieth + Finau have combined to miss nine of the last 13 cuts here.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cantlay + Schauffele have combined to miss six straight cuts.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are winning trends to pay attention to this week however:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Course History:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15 of the last 15 winners finished T23 or better at this event at least once before.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10 of the last 12 winners played here at least five times prior.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Current Form:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">24 of the last 24 winners made the cut in their previous start.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11 of the last 12 winners have finished T22 or better in their most recent start.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10 of the last 12 winners have finished T4 or better at least once in the same calendar year.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Recent Rankings:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">16 of the last 18 winners ranked in the Top 35 in SG Approach in the 12 months prior.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9 of the last 11 winners ranked in the Top 45 in SG Around the Green in the 12 months prior.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">17 of the last 19 winners ranked inside the Top-50 of the OWGR.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">TPC Sawgrass is Pete Dye\u2019s most famous design.\u00a0 The course isn\u2019t long by TOUR standards at just over 7,200 yards and plays to a stock par 72.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Everyone knows hole #17, but the 3-hole finishing stretch of #16-18 is as good as it gets.\u00a0 Dye\u2019s specialty is creating chaos with slight misses as his designs require strategic placement off the tee and he severally penalizes missed approach shots with tricky bunkering and runoff areas.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Water is in play on 17 of 18 holes and it is truly tough to avoid at least one penalty shot over 72 holes.\u00a0 Wind is usually a factor and will cause quality shots to go unrewarded.\u00a0 All the above is what tends to produce such varying results year over year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bottom line, expect an unpredictable and exciting event this week!<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>The Players Championship Predictions<\/h3>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to ignore the trends I mentioned above. When narrowing down from those that check most of those lists, focus on Approach play more than anything. If you can avoid the slight misses that plague Dye courses, you can win at TPC Sawgrass<\/p>\n<p><strong>Outright Winner<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Max Homa +2200 (Bet365)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Week in and week out Homa continues to deliver. He hasn\u2019t missed a cut since the Open Championship. His worst finish in eight official starts this season is a T39, but otherwise has finished T23 or better in all the rest including two wins at the Fortinet and Farmers Insurance Open.<\/p>\n<p>He has no real weaknesses in his game and he has been excelling with his approach play as he ranks 5th in this field over the last six months and 1st over the last three months gaining +1.34 strokes per round.<\/p>\n<p>Homa doesn\u2019t have the five-start trend under his belt as he has only played here twice before, missing the cut in 2021 but he did finish T13 last year.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, he is playing the best golf of his career and has so much confidence in what he is doing. I have no doubt we will see his name on that first page come Sunday.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Top-20 Finish<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Jason Day Top-10 +320 | Top-20 +150 (Bet365)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Day will be a popular pick this week simply because of his form. He has been incredible and ranks 4th in this field in Total SG over his last 20 rounds. He is in the middle of a resurgence in his career and is as hot as anyone on TOUR.<\/p>\n<p>He has missed the cut twice in 12 starts which oddly enough came at the weakest field events, the Fortinet Championship and the RSM Classic, but in his other ten tournaments, his worst finish is a T21. He is currently working on a run of four straight Top-10 finishes.<\/p>\n<p>Day didn\u2019t qualify for the Sentry TOC, but in the other three designated events he finished T5 at the WM Phoenix Open, T9 at The Genesis and T10 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is the only player on TOUR to finish Top-10 in all three.<\/p>\n<p>As with anybody\u2019s history at Sawgrass, you will see some ups and downs. Day has missed the cut four times in 11 appearances, but he is a past winner plus has an additional three Top-10s.<\/p>\n<p>He ranks 12th in SG Tee to Green this season, 25th in SG Approach, 14th in SG Putting and 10th in Total Driving. He is firing on all cylinders right now.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Golfer to Fade<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Colin Morikawa<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The rule I must follow is that this player needs to be in the Top-10 of my opening Total SG chart. Anyone can fade the guy ranked #100!<\/p>\n<p>Over his last five starts, Morikawa has finishes of 2nd (Sentry TOC), 3rd (Farmers) and T6 (Genesis), but he has also missed the cut in two other designated events at the WM Phoenix Open and last week at the API.<\/p>\n<p>Last week will play similarly to this week and a big reason I don\u2019t trust Morikawa with wind and water adding to the volatility.<\/p>\n<p>My two key stats this week are Approach which Morikawa is one of the elite in that category along with Around the Green where he leaves something to be desired ranking 59th this season.<\/p>\n<p>Although that is admittedly improved from 152nd last year. Still, with Dye\u2019s designs, you are going to face your fair share of scrambling and Morikawa is likely to lose a few shots to the field in that area this week. I just don\u2019t see a good return on his price, currently ranked as the 7th betting favorite.<\/p>\n<p>See you next week in for the Valspar Championship!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Interested in placing a bet on this week&#8217;s The Players Championship? BetMGM is offering a <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/mgm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">$1,000 Risk-Free Bet<\/a> for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/mgm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3037 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/BetMGM-Primary-Horizontal-Black-Background.jpg\" alt=\"BetMGM Logo\" width=\"528\" height=\"124\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/BetMGM-Primary-Horizontal-Black-Background.jpg 528w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/BetMGM-Primary-Horizontal-Black-Background-300x70.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 528px) 100vw, 528px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on. <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Players Championship Betting Preview Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The Players Championship teeing off from TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the The Players Championship! Stay on top of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":3008,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[439],"tags":[442,644,2355,443,444,2100,2327,2352,2353,2354],"class_list":["post-16613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-golf","tag-golf","tag-golf-betting","tag-golf-betting-advice","tag-golf-picks","tag-golf-predictions","tag-jon-rahm","tag-rory-mcilroy","tag-the-players-championship","tag-the-players-championship-picks","tag-the-players-championship-predictions"],"basic_html":"<h2>The Players Championship Betting Preview<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The Players Championship teeing off from TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the The Players Championship!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Stay on top of the latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\/golf\">Golf<\/a> updates direct from Las Vegas!<\/em><\/p>\n<!--more-->\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>The Players Championship<\/th>\n<th>PGA Tour Betting Notes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>When:<\/td>\n<td>March 9-12, 2023<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Where:<\/td>\n<td>TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Defending Champ:<\/td>\n<td>Cam Smith (LIV Tour)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Current Favorite:<\/td>\n<td>Rory McIlroy (+900 at <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/draftkings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DraftKings<\/a>)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>TV:<\/td>\n<td>Golf Channel &amp; NBC<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>The Players Championship Odds Board<\/h2>\nTop-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/fanduel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FanDuel<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/draftkings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DraftKings<\/a>)\nJon Rahm +3.31 (+900)\nRory McIlroy +2.77 (+1000)\nScottie Scheffler +2.70 (+1100)\nPatrick Cantlay +2.39 (+1800)\nTony Finau +2.30 (+3000)\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Max Homa <\/span>+2.22 (+2200)\nXander Schauffele +2.09 (+2600)\nJason Day +2.05 (+3300)\nCollin Morikawa +1.90 (+2800)\nJustin Thomas +1.81 (+1900)\n<h3>The Players Championship Course and Field - TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida)<\/h3>\nFrom <a href=\"https:\/\/wt.buzz\/nb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nick Borrman<\/a>:\n\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I\u2019ll start this week\u2019s article with a quick reminder. When looking at last year\u2019s results, take them with a BIG asterisk as the luck of the tee time draw had the biggest effect on a tournament result that we have seen in a long, long time.\u00a0 <\/span>\n\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bad weather affected both the first and second rounds and the same wave of players got the worst of it.\u00a0 If someone you like this week missed the cut last year, don\u2019t sweat it.<\/span>\n\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, and you will hear this from more than just me, Sawgrass is one of the most volatile tournaments on the PGA TOUR. <\/span>\n\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Leaderboards rarely look the same year over year and never has a winner repeated as champion.\u00a0 That statement alone tells the story. Bottom line, this is not a \u2018horse for the course\u2019 venue.\u00a0 Here are some specific trends that speak to this point:<\/span>\n<ul>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Only three players in the entire field have made the cut in each of the last five editions: Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Keegan Bradley.<\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Spieth + Finau have combined to miss nine of the last 13 cuts here.<\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cantlay + Schauffele have combined to miss six straight cuts.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are winning trends to pay attention to this week however:<\/span>\n\n<strong>Course History:<\/strong>\n<ul>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15 of the last 15 winners finished T23 or better at this event at least once before.<\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10 of the last 12 winners played here at least five times prior.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<strong>Current Form:<\/strong>\n<ul>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">24 of the last 24 winners made the cut in their previous start.<\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">11 of the last 12 winners have finished T22 or better in their most recent start.<\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">10 of the last 12 winners have finished T4 or better at least once in the same calendar year.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<strong>Recent Rankings:<\/strong>\n<ul>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">16 of the last 18 winners ranked in the Top 35 in SG Approach in the 12 months prior.<\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9 of the last 11 winners ranked in the Top 45 in SG Around the Green in the 12 months prior.<\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">17 of the last 19 winners ranked inside the Top-50 of the OWGR.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">TPC Sawgrass is Pete Dye\u2019s most famous design.\u00a0 The course isn\u2019t long by TOUR standards at just over 7,200 yards and plays to a stock par 72.\u00a0 <\/span>\n\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Everyone knows hole #17, but the 3-hole finishing stretch of #16-18 is as good as it gets.\u00a0 Dye\u2019s specialty is creating chaos with slight misses as his designs require strategic placement off the tee and he severally penalizes missed approach shots with tricky bunkering and runoff areas.\u00a0 <\/span>\n\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Water is in play on 17 of 18 holes and it is truly tough to avoid at least one penalty shot over 72 holes.\u00a0 Wind is usually a factor and will cause quality shots to go unrewarded.\u00a0 All the above is what tends to produce such varying results year over year.\u00a0<\/span>\n\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bottom line, expect an unpredictable and exciting event this week!<\/span>\n<h3>The Players Championship Predictions<\/h3>\nIt\u2019s hard to ignore the trends I mentioned above. When narrowing down from those that check most of those lists, focus on Approach play more than anything. If you can avoid the slight misses that plague Dye courses, you can win at TPC Sawgrass\n\n<strong>Outright Winner<\/strong>\n\n<strong>Max Homa +2200 (Bet365)<\/strong>\n\nWeek in and week out Homa continues to deliver. He hasn\u2019t missed a cut since the Open Championship. His worst finish in eight official starts this season is a T39, but otherwise has finished T23 or better in all the rest including two wins at the Fortinet and Farmers Insurance Open.\n\nHe has no real weaknesses in his game and he has been excelling with his approach play as he ranks 5th in this field over the last six months and 1st over the last three months gaining +1.34 strokes per round.\n\nHoma doesn\u2019t have the five-start trend under his belt as he has only played here twice before, missing the cut in 2021 but he did finish T13 last year.\n\nOverall, he is playing the best golf of his career and has so much confidence in what he is doing. I have no doubt we will see his name on that first page come Sunday.\n\n<strong>Top-20 Finish<\/strong>\n\n<strong>Jason Day Top-10 +320 | Top-20 +150 (Bet365)<\/strong>\n\nDay will be a popular pick this week simply because of his form. He has been incredible and ranks 4th in this field in Total SG over his last 20 rounds. He is in the middle of a resurgence in his career and is as hot as anyone on TOUR.\n\nHe has missed the cut twice in 12 starts which oddly enough came at the weakest field events, the Fortinet Championship and the RSM Classic, but in his other ten tournaments, his worst finish is a T21. He is currently working on a run of four straight Top-10 finishes.\n\nDay didn\u2019t qualify for the Sentry TOC, but in the other three designated events he finished T5 at the WM Phoenix Open, T9 at The Genesis and T10 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is the only player on TOUR to finish Top-10 in all three.\n\nAs with anybody\u2019s history at Sawgrass, you will see some ups and downs. Day has missed the cut four times in 11 appearances, but he is a past winner plus has an additional three Top-10s.\n\nHe ranks 12th in SG Tee to Green this season, 25th in SG Approach, 14th in SG Putting and 10th in Total Driving. He is firing on all cylinders right now.\n\n<strong>Golfer to Fade<\/strong>\n\n<strong>Colin Morikawa<\/strong>\n\nThe rule I must follow is that this player needs to be in the Top-10 of my opening Total SG chart. Anyone can fade the guy ranked #100!\n\nOver his last five starts, Morikawa has finishes of 2nd (Sentry TOC), 3rd (Farmers) and T6 (Genesis), but he has also missed the cut in two other designated events at the WM Phoenix Open and last week at the API.\n\nLast week will play similarly to this week and a big reason I don\u2019t trust Morikawa with wind and water adding to the volatility.\n\nMy two key stats this week are Approach which Morikawa is one of the elite in that category along with Around the Green where he leaves something to be desired ranking 59th this season.\n\nAlthough that is admittedly improved from 152nd last year. Still, with Dye\u2019s designs, you are going to face your fair share of scrambling and Morikawa is likely to lose a few shots to the field in that area this week. I just don\u2019t see a good return on his price, currently ranked as the 7th betting favorite.\n\nSee you next week in for the Valspar Championship!\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Interested in placing a bet on this week's The Players Championship? BetMGM is offering a <a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/mgm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">$1,000 Risk-Free Bet<\/a> for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.go.metabet.io\/bet\/mgm\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3037 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/BetMGM-Primary-Horizontal-Black-Background.jpg\" alt=\"BetMGM Logo\" width=\"528\" height=\"124\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n<ul>\n \t<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on. <\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16613"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16613\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3008"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}