Fall Season Recap<\/h3>\n
Well, since it\u2019s been a few weeks since any TOUR action has taken place, figure it would be best to give a quick Recap on the fall season, the last year of the wrap-around season on the PGA TOUR.<\/p>\n
Slightly more than half (5 of 9) of the nine official events were won by a player ranking inside the Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the previous six months, which continued that yearlong trend. 27 of 43 (63%) events saw the winner come from within that Top-10 and it was a big reason why I focused my Outright betting selections in that area for every tournament.<\/p>\n
It proved to be very successful for myself, correctly picking nine Outright winners in 2022 and four in the fall season alone.<\/p>\n
Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds Board<\/h3>\n
Jon Rahm +650
Scottie Scheffler +900
Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay +1000
Justin Thomas +1100
Tony Finau +1400<\/p>\n
*(odds shopped from DraftKings)<\/p>\n
Sentry Tournament of Champions Course & Field<\/h3>\n
Golf is back! After a six-week hiatus, the PGA TOUR officially returns to the location it kicks off every year, the Plantation Course at Kapalua.<\/p>\n
This limited field used to be the most exclusive official event to gain entry to, as only previous year winners would receive the invite.<\/p>\n
That has now been expanded to also include any non-winners that finished the season in the Top-30 of the Fedex Cup. The TOUR had to do that in 2021 when COVID wreaked havoc on the schedule. They returned to winners only in 2022, but decided to bring it back again for this year\u2019s edition with the field size of 39.<\/p>\n
New for this season, the TOUR introduced \u2018elevated\u2019 events to increase top player participation with the lure of big money purses.<\/p>\n
The Sentry TOC just happens to be exactly that and the first one of the season. For that reason, only three of the Top-20 players in the world are not in this week\u2019s field.<\/p>\n
World #1 Rory McIlroy has once again opted to skip this event and start his season a few weeks later in Abu Dhabi, while world #3 and defending champion Cam Smith is ineligible due to his status with LIV Golf. Also missing is #20 Shane Lowry.<\/p>\n
The course is known for its big undulation changes and steep slopes which usually lead to the longest bombs of the entire year. 400-yard drives have become regular here ever since Jonathan Byrd hit the first 400-yard drive in TOUR history back in 2003.<\/p>\n
Another Tour record resides here as it is sight of the lowest score in relation to par as Cam Smith won last year with a score of 34-under. The course is the only par 73 on TOUR and features just three par 3s along with the standard four par 5s, leaving 11 par 4s.<\/p>\n
Seven holes play longer than 500 yards but there are also four par 4s measuring less than 400. The total length of the track measures just under 7,600 yards.<\/p>\n
Even though the course allows even the shortest hitters to hit long drives this week, historically speaking, Distance off the Tee is a very important metric as only the longest hitters can take advantage of all of the opportunities presented at Kapalua like Dustin Johnson\u2019s almost hole-in-one on the 430 yard 12th hole. The evidence is with these guys:<\/p>\n
Jon Rahm ranked #5 in Distance and #1 in SG Off the Tee in 2022. He has finished inside the Top-10 in each of the last five years including two runner-ups.<\/p>\n
Justin Thomas ranked #14 in Distance and #9 SG Off the Tee in 2022. He has finished inside the Top-5 in each of the last four years including a win in 2020 (and in 2017).<\/p>\n
Xander Schauffele ranked slightly lower at #35 in Distance and #34 in SG Off the Tee in 2022, but still long compared to most in this field. He has three finishes inside the Top-5 in the last four years including a win in 2019.<\/p>\n
Heck, even Partick Cantlay ranked #40 in Distance last year and has two 4th places finishes the last three years.<\/p>\n
Nick\u2019s QBE Shootout Betting Favorites<\/h3>\n
Outright Winner: Xander Schauffele<\/strong> +1100 (Bet365, FanDuel or BetMGM)<\/p>\n Aside from throwing the most obvious bomber Jon Rahm here for an Outright play (don\u2019t love his +650 price tag), I think Xander Schauffele is a good fit at a better price of 11-1. \u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n I already mentioned Xander\u2019s driving data from last year, as well as his recent finishes at Kapalua, but he is played well in the fall finishing T9 at the ZOZO Championship in October followed be a 4<\/span>th<\/span> place finish in the Hero World Challenge in December.<\/span><\/p>\n Xander is also a birdie machine, ranking #9 in Birdie Average last year, which the winner will have to make a ton of this week.\u00a0 Schauffele also ranked #11 in Greens in Regulation, #5 in Scoring Average, #8 in Putts per GIR and #2 in Sand Saves in case he gets a little loose.\u00a0 Xander loves playing here and should have a good chance on Sunday to win for the 2<\/span>nd<\/span> time.<\/span><\/p>\n Top-10 Finish: Justin Thomas<\/strong> -120 (Bet365 or DraftKings)<\/span><\/p>\n -120 on a Top-10 is not normally a price I would pay, but remember, this is a field of just 39 and really only about 15 players have a chance to actually win this week, JT of course being one of those.<\/span><\/p>\n Justin is a past winner in 2017 and 2020 and has finished no worse than 5<\/span>th<\/span> in the last four years, so feel free to press your luck on a Top-5 finish at +200 odds as well.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n Like most big names, JT didn\u2019t have a lot of starts this fall, but did finish 5<\/span>th<\/span> at the Hero and played in the latest edition of The Match as he and Jordan Spieth spanked Tiger and Rory.\u00a0 Also, remember JT\u2019s President\u2019s Cup performance where he was a perfect 4-0 before losing on Sunday in the singles matches.<\/span><\/p>\n Thomas bombs it off the tee, ranking #14 in Distance and #9 in SG Off the Tee, and ranked #3 in Birdie Average.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n His Tee to Green game is as good as anyone\u2019s ranking #3 in SG last year, so he will have his chances this week.\u00a0 The putter will ultimately decide his finish though and I\u2019m not sure I fully believe it will get him the win.\u00a0 But on pure chances alone, he should finish inside the top quarter of this field.<\/span><\/p>\n H2H Matchup: Will Zalatoris (-140) over Hideki Matsuyama<\/strong><\/p>\n Not often I will get behind a guy coming off an injury as Zalatoris returns for his first event since his WD at the BMW Championship in August. But we know what the kid can do and what his potential is.<\/p>\n He is ranked #7 in the World already thanks to his strong performances last year in the hardest tournaments with the deepest fields. Runner-up in two majors plus a T6 at another at the Masters.<\/p>\n All-in-all, nine Top-10 finishes in 25 starts. Zalatoris committed to this event over a month ago and there is no doubt in my mind he has been pushing hard to be ready.<\/p>\n On the other side, even without Zalatoris playing, I think I\u2019ve heard him being talked about more than Matsuyama who as really faded from the spotlight.<\/p>\n In three fall starts, he WD from the Houston Open, finished T34 in the limited field CJ Cup and T40 in the other limited field ZOZO. He was awful at the President\u2019s Cup for the International Team and there is nothing I\u2019ve seen from him in months that makes me want to back him here.<\/p>\n His last Top-10 finish was a 4th at the US Open in June and since then, he hasn\u2019t finished the tournament in three of nine starts with two WDs and one MC, and has finished inside the Top-25 just one time.<\/p>\n See you next week for the Sony Open!<\/p>\n\n\n
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