RSM Classic Recap<\/h3>\n
It\u2019s been two weeks, but we might as well recap the RSM. Adam Svensson grabbed his first PGA Tour title. Svensson was not on many people\u2019s radar heading into the week as he was listed as high as 150-1 and he certainly didn\u2019t rank inside the top-10 Strokes Gained over the previous six months. Nonetheless, that trend has produced five winners in nine events this fall and 27-in-43 (63%) events in 2022.<\/p>\n
This week, we have a 50-percent chance of keeping that trend alive just on field size alone as only 20 players get the invite to this ultra-exclusive tournament.<\/p>\n
Hero World Challenge Odds Board<\/h3>\n
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds)
[#11] Tony Finau +2.66 (+1000) B365
[#5] Jon Rahm +2.52 (+525) PB
[#6] Xander Schauffele +2.39 (+1100) B365 | FD | MGM
[#2] Scottie Scheffler +2.06 (+800) B365 | FD
[#9] Matthew Fitzpatrick +1.80 (+1400) B365
[#15] Joohyung \u201cTom\u201d Kim +1.80 (+2000) B365
[#16] Max Homa +1.71 (+2800) B365
[#21] Sungjae Im +1.69 (+1600) FD | DK | MGM
[#17] Billy Horschel +1.33 (+3300) B365 | FD | MGM
[#13] Sam Burns +1.31 (+1800) B365 | DK
Notables
[#12] Viktor Hovland +0.56 (+1400) Everywhere
[#8] Justin Thomas +0.33 (+1200) B365 | MGM<\/p>\n
*(odds shopped from Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet & BetMGM)<\/p>\n
The Hero World Challenge Course & Field<\/h3>\n
Not an official PGA Tour event, but this limited field of 20 of the best players in the world is still playing for real cash and World Ranking points. Tiger Woods once again serves as host of the event and was expected to play until he (sadly) withdrew on Monday citing plantar fasciitis. That certainly is a letdown for anyone looking to watch this weekend, but this is still a fantastic field and should provide some good entertainment.<\/p>\n
Albany is not your standard par 72 as the course features both five par 3s and par 5s and measures just over 7,400 yards. Length has proven to be a necessary component to the winner\u2019s repertoire in the past, but this week will be all about ball-striking as the weather is likely to be the headline.<\/p>\n
Winds are not expected to be below 15 mph at any point for the four days while gusts are expected to crest 30 mph, especially on Friday and Saturday. That just means only the purest golf shots are likely to be unaffected, while the wind will take the slightest miscue and make it look like a 20-handicappers\u2019 mistake very quickly.<\/p>\n
The event has been played at Albany for the last six editions and the recipe for winning has been either length, ball-striking or both as past winners include Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm, Henrik Stenson and most recently Viktor Hovland. That likely means guys like Kevin Kisner (sorry, Kevin), Sepp Straka and even a hot Tommy Fleetwood are unlikely to prevail here. Instead, focus on ball-striking first and use distance as a tiebreaker if needed.<\/p>\n
Nick\u2019s Hero World Challenge Betting Favorites<\/h3>\n
Outright Winner: Tony Finau<\/strong> +1000 (Bet365) Finau has both skill sets needed this week as he finished last year ranking 15th in Strokes Gained off the tee, fifth in tee-to-green, fifth in greens in regulation and tenth in Total Strokes Gained. He also can poke it off the tee averaging 308 yards last year which ranked 40th.<\/p>\n Top-5 Finish: Jon Rahm<\/strong> -115 (DraftKings) Rahm has won twice in his last three starts, winning the Spanish Open and the DP World Tour Championship. In fact, in four starts since the Tour Championship, his worst finish is a T4 at the CJ Cup, meaning he has cashed a top-5 ticket in all four starts.<\/p>\n Rahm won his debut here in 2018, then finished runner-up the following year and there are plenty of reasons he has thrived at Albany. He ranked No. 1 in Strokes Gained off the tee last season thanks to ranking No. 5 in driving distance, while also ranking No. 12 in tee-to-green and No. 7 in Total Strokes Gained. And that was considered a down year for him.<\/p>\n All trends are pointing to a resurgent year ahead as Rahm leads the field averaging a whopping +3.20 Strokes Gained per round over the last three months. To put that in perspective, Tony Finau ranks No. 2 at 2.69 and Homa No. 3 at 2.33, nearly a full stroke behind.<\/p>\n H2H Matchup: Sungjae Im (-140) over Sam Burns<\/strong> Since winning the Charles Schwab in May and following that up with a T4 in Canada the following week, Burns has recorded just one top-10 in ten starts while finishing outside the top-25 six times including two missed cuts. One of his four starts he did finish inside the top-25 was a 24th place finish at the Tour Championship which had a field of just 29 this year.<\/p>\n Call it a play on Sungjae, call it a fade of Burns, whatever you want, but I fully expect Sungjae to be ahead of Burns on the leaderboard at the end of the day Sunday.<\/p>\n See you in two weeks for the partner event, the QBE Shootout!<\/p>\n\n\n
Tony leads the field in Strokes Gained over the last six months for good reason as he has won three times in his last seven starts and likely could have had another had he not withdrawn at the RSM immediately after winning in his start in Houston. This is his fourth-straight start here at Albany which includes a runner-up finish in 2018 in his debut.<\/p>\n
There aren\u2019t many times where -115 is a good price on a top-5 finish, but with only 20 players in the field and with how hot Rahm has been, this seems like a no-brainer.<\/p>\n
With how consistent Sungjae has been over the last couple of years, it\u2019s hard to believe this is the first time he has teed it up at Albany. But first-timers have had success here and he is one of the best ball-strikers on Tour which make me want to back him over a slumping Sam Burns.<\/p>\n
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