Bermuda Championship Recap<\/h3>\n
Ho hum. Yet another winner that was ranked inside the top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the previous six months as Seamus Power captured his second PGA Tour title.<\/p>\n
The field was certainly the weakest we have seen this early PGA Tour season, but it didn\u2019t change the fact that one of the hottest players of the last half-year was able to capture the victory.<\/p>\n
That is now four of six winners this season already and an insane 26-of-40 (65%) for the 2022 calendar year.<\/p>\n
Mayakoba Odds Board<\/h3>\n
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months
[#14] Tony Finau +2.37 (+1800) MGM
[#2] Scottie Scheffler +1.84 (+950) FD
[#34] Aaron Wise +1.66 (+2000) FD | MGM
[#68] Taylor Montgomery +1.57 (+2800) B365 | DK | MGM
[#16] Billy Horschel +1.36 (+1800) B365 | FD | PB | MGM
[#11] Viktor Hovland +1.30 (+1100) MGM
[#38] Brian Harman +1.25 (+4500) B365
[#35] K.H. Lee +1.14 (+5000) DK
[#76] Emiliano Grillo +1.04 (+4000) MGM
[#33] Tom Hoge +1.04 (+3000) DK | MGM
Notables
[#9] Collin Morikawa +0.98 (+1800) DK | MGM
[#80] Andrew Putnam +0.94 (+6600) B365 (+1.56 L3 Months)<\/p>\n
*(odds shopped from Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet & BetMGM)<\/p>\n
The Mayakoba Course & Field<\/h3>\n
Seven players have gone back-to-back over the last year beginning with Viktor Hovland right here in Mayakoba as he now goes for the ultra-rare threepeat. The last person to do it was Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-2011.<\/p>\n
So, while your inkling to take Hovland might be strong, consider it has been over a decade since it last happened. Plus, Hovland\u2019s low price should be enough to keep you off him this week and look toward another one of the 132 in the field.<\/p>\n
El Camaleon is a par 71 that tips out at just over 7,000 yards. It\u2019s a resort course so greens don\u2019t tend to be quite as slick as other Tour stops and if the weather is favorable, the tournament can easily become a birdie fest.<\/p>\n
Hovland set the tournament record last year at 23-under par and this year the weather forecast looks very good, save for the opening round on Thursday which could see some showers and storms affect play.<\/p>\n
Paspalum is the grass around the property this week which is notable for the difficult conditions players can find if they miss the fairway. If you have never played on paspalum, it\u2019s similar to a Bermuda rough in that lies are very unpredictable. Sometimes the ball stays on top while other times it nestles to the bottom. Staying out of the rough this week will be a priority. Both short and long hitters have prevailed here so long as the long hitters can also keep it straight.<\/p>\n
Nick\u2019s Mayakoba Betting Favorites<\/h3>\n
The odds are short on the first five ranked players in this week\u2019s field and for good reason as the level of talent falls off quite a bit after them. Although not sexy, as the winners\u2019 odds rarely seem to be on the PGA Tour anymore, it\u2019s hard not to see one of them winning this week.<\/p>\n
Outright Winner: Tom Hoge +3000<\/strong> (DraftKings) Hoge is no stranger to this course having played here in seven previous editions including finishing T3 two years ago. His course knowledge and strong form should have him in contention on Sunday.<\/p>\n Top-20 Finish: Andrew Putnam +275<\/strong> (Bet365) He is not a long ball hitter, but that has proven to not be an issue here, however his short game and putting are strong, as he ranked No. 20 Strokes Gained around the green last year and currently ranks No. 26 Strokes Gained Putting this season. Putnam also ranks No. 5 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last three months.<\/p>\n H2H Matchup: Aaron Wise -110 over Billy Horschel<\/strong> Wise is a long hitter, but not by itself as he backs that up by ranking No. 21 in greens in regulation last season and thus No. 21 in both birdie average and scoring average.<\/p>\n Horschel has had plenty of strong finishes himself including a win at the Memorial last year, but he seems to be more up and down than most guys on Tour, especially the second half of last season where he didn\u2019t go more than three tournaments without missing a cut over his last nine starts, missing the weekend in four of those nine.<\/p>\n Horschel ranked No. 67 in birdie average last year and tends to perform better at the tougher tracks where winning scores are in the 10-under to 13-under range. After seeing Hovland get to 23-under last year, and favorable scoring conditions again this year, I don\u2019t see him keeping pace with the pack in what should be a birdie fest this week.<\/p>\n\n\n
Hoge was quiet the second half of last season but has gotten off to a tremendous start this fall finishing inside the top-13 in all four starts including strong fields at the CJ Cup and at the ZOZO. He ranks third in Strokes Gained Approach this season, and while it\u2019s only been four tournaments for him, it backs up his No. 11 ranking in that category last season.<\/p>\n
Putnam has gotten off to a fast start this season having played in five events and making the weekend in all five including a Runner-up in Japan at the ZOZO. That follows a strong end to last season as he has now made the weekend in nine straight events including five top-25s with his worst finish a T43.<\/p>\n
Wise is coming off a T6 finish at the CJ Cup two weeks ago which backed up a strong finish to end last year making the cut in 11 of his final 12 starts including five straight to reach the Tour Championship. On the season, Wise finished in the top-25 in nearly half of his starts (11 of 24).<\/p>\n
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