CJ Cup Recap<\/h3>\n
Rory McIlroy captured his second CJ Cup, continuing the long trend we have seen in 2022 where the winner has been ranked inside the top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the prior six months at a rate of 64% (25-of-39) including three of five already this season. As we move onto the weakest field so far this fall, that trend may be harder to continue.<\/p>\n
Bermuda Championship Odds Board<\/h3>\n
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months:
[#83] Denny McCarthy +1.09 (+1600) B365 | FD | PB | MGM
[#180] Nick Hardy +0.76 (+3500) DK
[#157] Mark Hubbard +0.71 (+2500) DK | PB
[#222] Patrick Rodgers +0.66 (+3000) DK
[#61] Adrian Meronk +0.63 (+2800) MGM
[#160] Stephan Jaegar +0.61 (+3700) FD
[#154] Aaron Rai +0.58 (+3500) DK
[#162] Adam Schenk +0.49 (+5000) B365
[#138] Alex Smalley +0.48 (+3400) FD
[#48] Seamus Power +0.48 (+2500) DK
Notables
[#227] Justin Lower +0.45 (+3000) DK
[#262] Callum Tarren +0.44 (+5500) B365<\/p>\n
*(odds shopped from Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet & BetMGM)<\/p>\n
The Bermuda Championship Course & Field<\/h3>\n
After back-to-back limited field, no-cut events, the Tour returns to full-field events for the next four weeks before the holiday break begins.<\/p>\n
This will be the fourth edition of the Bermuda Championship, which have all been contested at Port Royal Golf Club. Breaking trend with the rest of 2022, if there was ever a week to take some chances on longshots, this is it. The past three winners of this event including Brendon Todd at 80-1, Brian Gay at 200-1 and Lucas Herbert last year at 60-1.<\/p>\n
The par-71 is short by Tour standards, at just over 6,800, which is actually the second-shortest course on Tour behind only Pebble Beach. But that doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s easy.<\/p>\n
The course is on an island so the one none-design factor that will play defense is wind. This week, winds are forecasted to be in the 10-20 mph range Thursday thru Saturday before kicking upwards of 30+ mph for the finale. There is also a chance of rain and thunderstorms so weather will play a factor this week.<\/p>\n
The field is weak to say the least and playing names like Denny McCarthy below 20-to-1 seems like a fools-choice. Then again, he has clearly been playing better than most people in this field.<\/p>\n
Shotlink is not available on the island, so we don\u2019t have past Strokes Gained data to profile what has worked in the past. But with winds forecasted as they are, you can bet good ole\u2019 ball-striking will be on the forefront again this week.<\/p>\n
It may also make sense to look at European or Aussie players that have more experience than most Americans when it comes to playing in the wind.<\/p>\n
Nick\u2019s Bermuda Championship Betting Favorites<\/h3>\n
Spread your risk a little deeper this week on more players, but at less each. It\u2019s hard to narrow down who could come out on top as so many of these guys are similar in class. It\u2019s also not the worst idea to take the week off and wait for better days. But who wants to do that?<\/p>\n
Outright Winner: Callum Tarren +5500<\/strong> (Bet365) Tarren\u2019s skillset is length off the tee, ranking No. 15 last year in that category while also finishing No. 59 in Strokes Gained Approach. While that doesn\u2019t sound that sexy, it is one of the best in this field. This season he is putting well also, ranking No. 29 in Strokes Gained Putting. He should be in the mix on Sunday.<\/p>\n Top-20 Finish: Justin Lower +160<\/strong> (DraftKings) Justin ranks No. 5 this early season in birdie average and last year was a top-50 putter. He was T6 at this event last season heading into Sunday before ultimately finishing T17 and cashing this ticket. His early season results should bolster his confidence heading into a field he can beat this week.<\/p>\n Featured H2H Matchup: Aaron Rai -110 over Patrick Rodgers<\/strong> Rodgers has had some good results this season but ranks No. 128 in driving accuracy, No. 120 in Strokes Gained Putting and No. 144 in Strokes Gained Approach. I\u2019m not confident his ball-striking will hold up as the winds pickup as the week goes on.<\/p>\n See you next week at Mayakoba!<\/p>\n\n\n
Tarren has two missed cuts in three events this year but did finish T13 at the Sanderson Farms. He finished last year strong making the cut in four of his final five starts with his worst finish a T27. His missed cut came in the first playoff event, so clearly a much tougher field, but all those good finishes were in fields similar to this. He also finished T6 at the John Deere Classic.<\/p>\n
I really like this price on Lower this week. He has been a beast when it comes to making cuts as he has played the weekend in ten of his last 11 starts including five top-20s, two of them already this season.<\/p>\n
There isn\u2019t a lot that separates these players in talent, but I would give Rai the major edge on potential. The Tour sophomore should only get better this season in his second go-around on Tour. He has played the weekend in all three events he teed it up this fall and ranks No. 34 in Strokes Gained Approach and No. 48 in Strokes Gained Putting. He is accurate, ranking No. 26 in driving accuracy and No. 21 in greens in regulation which will be important this week because of the weather, which is the ultimate reason I gave him a leg up as a DP World Tour player from England.<\/p>\n
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