WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills Week 12 betting preview for Thursday, November 25. At the time of posting, the Bills are a 6.5-point road favorite in New Orleans, with the total sitting at 45.5 points.<\/p>\n
Stay on top of the latest NFL<\/a> updates direct from Las Vegas!<\/em><\/p>\n We talked on our videos last week that the Bills have wins over bad teams, and losses against good teams, and they are coming off their worst performance of the season against a team I would describe as good, not great in the Colts. I was high on the Saints last week as I though their running game would be too tough for Philly, and I was wrong as the running game was dominated by Philly and Trevor Semien couldn\u2019t get anything going early for the Saints offense. So what do we with these two teams who are coming off of big losses?<\/p>\n It\u2019s an interesting matchup for the Saints D and Bills offense because the Bills don\u2019t even really try to run the ball and New Orleans has been the best rush defense this year outside of the Philly game. So I will expect very little production out the Buffalo rush game. As for the Buffalo passing game, it\u2019s had it\u2019s moments against bad teams, but last week could be a red flag. Indy\u2019s pass defense is the weak part of the defense and Josh Allen was not productive. He now has 5 interceptions in the last 3 games, and Stefon Diggs is the only consistent option in the passing game. New Orleans is bottom half in pass defense, but can Buffalo take advantage?<\/p>\n New Orleans has major problems in the backfield with injuries to Ingram and Kamara. At the time of writing this, both players took Tuesday off with knee injuries and their status is unknown. On a short week, of course they won\u2019t practice Tuesday so we will have to wait and see their status. Buffalo is still an elite passing defense, and I don\u2019t think Trevor Semien can light them up, but on a short week and an unpredictable New Orleans offense I wouldn\u2019t put anything past Sean Payton.<\/p>\n One thing I do on these Thanksgiving games is not pay too much attention to ATS trends. This week is very different from all others with the short week, the holiday, and odd travel. So I\u2019m not depending on season tendencies on spreads and totals to make my plays for this game. I do think Buffalo won\u2019t run much, and I do think New Orleans will struggle at times on offense, but if Kamara and\/or Ingram plays I\u2019m taking the over.<\/p>\n I\u2019m seeing a Buffalo team fly over the total the last two weeks, and I see three of four starts by Semien go over the total. Some of it has been in garbage time (last week versus the Eagles), but those points count too. This total is at 45.5 points, and with the Saints being at home they are going to play all out for the entire game in front of their home crowd on Thanksgiving. I think Buffalo\u2019s struggles last week are about as bad as they are going to be, so I see a rebound week for them. I\u2019ll only play this if the Saints have one or both of their running backs for this game, if both are ruled out I\u2019ll stay away. Wait until the final injury reports are in for New Orleans, and if we see a decent backfield\u2026fire a way on the over.<\/p>\n Official Play: OVER 45.5<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcb0An argument could be made that this is the best sports week of the year: Wall-to-wall college basketball, Thanksgiving NFL and college football regular season finales. 7-Day All-Access packages are the lowest price of the year. \u2014 WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 22, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\nNew Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills Predictions<\/h3>\n
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