Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins Predictions, Picks & Odds (Nov. 16 • Madrid)
NFL Week 11 – Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, Spain
The NFL continues its international expansion in 2025 with a historic Week 11 clash between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins, marking the league’s first-ever regular-season game played in Spain. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, bringing two struggling but intriguing teams to the global stage.
Both franchises enter this matchup at 3-7, but their trajectories are quite different. The Commanders are trying to halt a five-game losing streak under second-year head coach Dan Quinn, while the Dolphins are coming off a morale-boosting win that snapped their own skid.
The contrast in styles — Miami’s speed-driven offense versus Washington’s attempt to rebuild its identity — makes this an intriguing early-morning feature for fans and bettors alike.
Team Outlook – Washington Commanders
Washington’s season has been defined by inconsistency and growing pains. After trading several key defensive starters earlier in the year, the Commanders have struggled to stop opponents, allowing more than 35 points per game during their current losing streak.
Head coach Dan Quinn, originally hired for his defensive pedigree, has now taken over play-calling duties following the mid-season reassignment of coordinator Joe Whitt Jr.
Offensively, Washington will again rely on Marcus Mariota, who continues to start in place of the injured rookie Jayden Daniels. Mariota’s mobility adds a different dimension to the offense, but the passing game has remained inconsistent.
Wideout Terry McLaurin remains the centerpiece of the attack, while the Commanders continue to search for balance on the ground behind Brian Robinson Jr. and Chris Rodriguez.
While the team has shown flashes of competitiveness, their inability to close games has been costly. In three of their past five losses, Washington led or trailed by a single score entering the fourth quarter, only to collapse defensively.
With a neutral-site setting and extra travel, maintaining focus and consistency will be critical for Quinn’s squad.
Team Outlook – Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins enter this game in an equally unpredictable stretch. After a turbulent first half of the season, Miami finally broke through last week with a decisive victory over the Buffalo Bills, ending a multi-year drought against their AFC East rival.
The defense came alive, forcing three turnovers and limiting Buffalo to just 13 points — one of the Dolphins’ strongest defensive performances since 2022.
On offense, Miami’s hallmark remains speed and spacing. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continues to direct a potentially dynamic passing attack, built around Jaylen Waddle.
Even without consistent running-back health, the Dolphins have maintained efficiency, averaging over 6.3 yards per play across their wins.
This Madrid showcase also serves as a unique test for Miami’s preparation. The Dolphins are officially the “home” team for this neutral-site event, giving them the logistical advantage of choosing uniforms, sideline setups, and practice schedules.
Line Movement and Market Context
The betting market for this game has told an evolving story over the past two months. When the first numbers appeared in early September, Washington opened as a 4.5-point favorite, with a total of 45.5 points.
That early confidence reflected preseason expectations — Miami was viewed as inconsistent, while Washington’s defense was projected to improve under Quinn.
As the season unfolded, those assumptions flipped dramatically. By November 4, Miami had gained momentum in the market, with the spread tightening to Washington –1.5.
Only days later, line movement accelerated, crossing the key threshold and making Miami a slight favorite at –1.5. By the second week of November, the Dolphins’ performance against Buffalo and Washington’s ongoing slide pushed the number further, and as of November 10, the consensus line lists Miami –2.5 with a rising total of 47.5 points.
The adjustment from Washington –4.5 to Miami –2.5 represents a seven-point swing, one of the largest mid-season reversals for any NFL matchup in 2025. The total’s increase from 45.5 to 47.5 suggests renewed confidence in offensive production, particularly on Miami’s side.
Statistical Trends & Game Dynamics
The Commanders’ biggest issue has been defense. Over their last five contests, they have surrendered an average of 35.8 points per game and allowed opponents to convert nearly 47% of third-down attempts.
The secondary continues to struggle against explosive plays, giving up multiple touchdowns of 30 yards or more in three straight outings. Miami’s defense — while opportunistic — has allowed more than 26 points per game away from home.
For bettors, that blend of defensive volatility and potential offensive explosiveness helps explain the total’s upward trajectory. Both teams have participated in several games that have eclipsed 45 points, and public money appears to be leaning toward another high-scoring contest.
Historical and Contextual Notes
This game will make history as the first regular-season NFL game ever played in Spain, another milestone for the league’s international outreach.
The Bernabéu Stadium, home of Real Madrid CF, recently underwent major renovations to accommodate large-scale events such as this, with an expected attendance exceeding 70,000 fans.
For Washington, it marks their second consecutive year playing abroad, while Miami returns to the international stage for the first time since its 2021 appearance in London. Both organizations have embraced the NFL’s global initiative, using this week to engage with international fans and sponsors.
Commanders vs Dolphins Picks and Predictions
This matchup presents a fascinating contrast between a Washington team trying to find stability and a Miami squad rediscovering its rhythm. The key factors shaping the betting markets include Miami’s resurgence on defense and Washington’s ongoing issues protecting the football and defending the pass.
Against the Spread (ATS): Miami has covered in three of its past five games when favored by fewer than a field goal, while Washington has failed to cover in five straight contests. The sharp line movement from Washington –4.5 to Miami –2.5 reflects that discrepancy.
Total (Over/Under): The rise from 45.5 to 47.5 points suggests confidence in scoring opportunities on both sides. Miami’s offense has shown the ability to score in bursts, and Washington’s defensive lapses could contribute to a faster pace than expected.
Final Prediction: Miami Dolphins –2.5, Over 47.5. The Dolphins’ balance of speed, efficiency, and improved defense positions them well to continue momentum from last week’s performance. Expect Madrid’s first-ever NFL game to deliver fireworks on both sides of the ball.
Commanders vs Dolphins Closing Thoughts
Sunday’s Washington–Miami matchup in Madrid features a compelling combination of history, statistical intrigue, and shifting market sentiment.
The Commanders aim to stabilize under Marcus Mariota and Dan Quinn’s reshuffled staff, while the Dolphins look to build on renewed defensive momentum.
With the betting line having swung significantly toward Miami and the total creeping higher, all eyes will be on Spain as the NFL expands its global footprint once again.
