Athletics vs Astros Prediction and Betting Preview | June 19
The first three games of this week’s Athletics vs Astros series have seen an average of 11.67 runs per game. Will we see another high-scoring affair in Thursday’s finale? The GoldSheet team offers its thoughts on tonight’s AL West clash in Sacramento.
Athletics vs Astros Betting Preview
| Time | 10:05pm ET / 7:05pm PT |
| Stadium | Sutter Health Park in Sacramento |
| Weather | Warm with Winds Blowing Out to Left-Center |
| MoneyLine | Houston -130 / Athletics +110 |
| Total | 10.5 Runs (o EV / u -120) |
| RunLine | Houston -1.5 (+120) / Athletics +1.5 (-140) |
Houston Astros
Astros’ rookie Colton Gordon has pitched well in his first six starts, but his hard-hit profile has some red flags for a place like Sutter Health Park. Per Ballpark Pal, the conditions in Sacramento on Thursday will produce a run-scoring environment that is 14-percent above the MLB average.
Gordon has given up four home runs in his last three starts, and he ranks in the bottom-third among pitchers in expected batting average allowed, average exit velocity, whiff rate, barrel rate and ground ball rate.
Athletics
Jacob Lopez has pitched better than his 1-4 record would indicate. After starting the year in the bullpen, the Athletics have transitioned Lopez into the starting rotation and the results have followed. In his last two starts against the Orioles and Royals, Lopez has allowed a total of one run on seven hits with 14 strikeouts and three walks in 10.0 innings.
His expected ERA (3.57) is over a run lower than his actual ERA (4.80). His expected weighted on-base average (.309) is nearly 50 points better than his actual weighted on-base average (.358). His 30.9-percent hard-hit rate puts him in the top-fifth percentile among pitchers this season.
When facing left-hand pitching at home, the Athletics are hitting .287 this season (No. 1 in MLB) with a .344 on-base percentage (No. 6) and a 121 wRC+ (No. 6).
Athletics vs Astros Prediction
We’re going to focus on the first five innings and avoid the full game because the Athletics’ bullpen has taken a beating over the last two nights. Sean Newcomb and Hogan Harris have each pitched on back-to-back days and are presumably unavailable. The Athletics’ bullpen gave up eight runs on Tuesday then nine runs on Wednesday, so it’s easy to see why we’re skeptical of that unit.
ATHLETICS FIRST FIVE MONEYLINE (EV)
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