Tuesday College Football Week 12 Predictions: Kent State vs Akron & Ohio vs Western Michigan Picks
Kent State vs Akron — 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
The first game on the MAC schedule features Kent State and Akron, two programs showing signs of progress in conference play. Kent State has been one of the league’s most improved teams after struggling through recent sea
sons. Once considered among the nation’s worst, the Golden Flashes have become more competitive, going 2-2 in their last four MAC games.
That stretch includes a 42-6 rout of UMass — a game where Kent State entered as a slight one-point home favorite and dominated from start to finish.
The team rebounded well from early-season losses to Florida State and Oklahoma, which ended by a combined score of 110-10. In conference play, Kent State pushed Buffalo to the limit as a 28-point underdog before narrowly losing 28-24, and they recently fell to Ball State 17-13 in another close contest.
Akron enters this matchup in similarly good form, with two straight wins both outright and against the spread.
The Zips delivered a notable road upset at Buffalo and then took advantage of UMass, winning 44-10 in a game that produced over 460 total yards of offense, balanced nearly evenly between passing and rushing.
While Akron’s recent success has come against weaker opponents, the team’s passing game has quietly been effective, topping 200 yards through the air in each of its last three conference games.
That could spell trouble for Kent State, whose defense has struggled against the pass — surrendering over 250 yards and 34 points per game while allowing more than seven yards per attempt.
Offensively, Kent State has fared better through the air than on the ground, averaging 7.6 yards per pass against defenses typically allowing 6.9. Akron’s defense has also shown vulnerabilities, giving up 7.5 yards per pass and 27 points per game.
Kent State vs Akron Prediction: Over 47
From a betting perspective, the total opened around 47 points, dropped slightly to 46.5, and then began trending back upward toward 47 as sharper money came in on the over.
Reverse line movement of that kind often signals professional interest, especially around a key number like 47. Historically, both programs’ MAC games have averaged close to 47 total points per contest, suggesting the number is fair.
Ohio vs Western Michigan — 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The second half of Tuesday’s MACtion doubleheader showcases a battle of 4-1 conference records between Ohio and Western Michigan.
Originally slated for an earlier start, the matchup was flexed into prime time on ESPN2 because of its importance in the MAC standings.
Western Michigan enters as a narrow home underdog (+1 to +1.5) in what’s viewed as one of the week’s most balanced games.
The Broncos have momentum and rest on their side, coming off a bye after a three-point home win over Central Michigan on November 1.
That extra preparation means nine full days between games — a sharp contrast to Ohio, which played last Tuesday and now faces travel and a shorter turnaround following a 24-20 win over Miami (OH) as a field-goal favorite.
Both programs are in strong form: each has won five of its last six games. Statistical comparisons suggest the matchup could be closer than the spread implies.
On the season, Ohio has outscored its opponents by 4.5 points per game against slightly below-average competition.
Western Michigan, meanwhile, has outscored opponents by three points despite facing a tougher schedule — estimated to be about two points stronger than Ohio’s slate.
When factoring in home-field advantage and the bye week, the math suggests Western Michigan could merit favoritism instead of underdog status.
Ohio’s offense has been the more explosive of the two, averaging over 200 yards both rushing and passing per gameand producing more than six yards per play.
The Bobcats are scoring roughly 28.5 points per outing. Western Michigan’s offense has been less dynamic, averaging 4.7 yards per play with below-average passing numbers, but the team’s strength lies on defense.
Ohio vs Western Michigan Prediction: Western Michigan -1.5
Defensively, the Broncos are allowing only 19 points per game and 4.9 yards per play, more than a yard per play better than Ohio’s defense, which yields 6.2 yards per snap against opponents that average 5.5.
In MAC competition, Western Michigan’s defense has been roughly a yard per play superior and has allowed just 12.5 points per game.
That defensive edge, combined with the rest advantage, makes this matchup one of the most intriguing of the week.
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