Free Soccer Predictions for APR 25

Cerro Porteno vs Fluminense
Copa Libertadores, Thursday, 6pm ET

Play: Over 5.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -133
Line Parameter: Playable to -140

This match is all about the referee, Uruguayan Esteban Ostojich, who has one of the most INSANE card numbers in the history of soccer. He has the ability to dish out 9 cards in an U-15 match, he doesn't hold back.

REFEREE CARD STATS:

2023/24 (10 matches): 66 cards (6.6/game), 2 red cards
2022/23 (40 matches): 354 cards (8.85/game), 26 red cards (this is not a typo)
2021/22 (31 matches): 256 cards (8.25/game), 17 red cards 
2020/21 (34 matches): 233 cards (6.85/game), 11 red cards
2019/20 (24 matches): 186 cards (7.75/game), 15 red cards
2018/19 (39 matches): 327 cards (8.38/game), 27 red cards (also not a typo)
2017/18 (29 matches): 273 cards (9.41/game), 31 red cards (still not a typo)
2016/17 (39 matches): 334 cards (8.56/game), 26 red cards
2015/16 (19 matches): 127 cards (6.68/game), 6 red cards
2014/15 (25 matches): 172 cards (6.88/game), 7 red cards
2013/14 (15 matches): 124 cards (8.26/game), 14 red cards
2012/13 (7 matches): 40 cards (5.71/game), 6 red cards

Lifetime Totals (313 matches): 2.496 cards (7.97/game), 188 red cards (!!!)
Copa Libertadores (39 matches): 300 cards (7.7/game), 18 red cards
Over 5.5 Cards is 5-1 L/2 seasons, 18-4 in L/4 seasons, and 32-7 all time

Card Props are not widely available for this match, but I found the Over 5.5 Cards at -133 and I am smashing that. For context, Over 6.5 Cards is +130 and the Red Card is +200, Over 1.5 Red Cards is +950.

FLUMINENSE CARD STATS:

Card Totals in Fluminense's L/8 matches: 9/9/6/7/3/9/6/12, so 7-1 to the Over 5.5 Cards with an average of 7.625 cards/match.

Fluminense's Team Total Cards in L/8: 4/5/2/2/1/6/5/5, so 5-3 to the Over 2.5 Team Total Cards with an average of 3.75 Team Total cards/match. 

Card Totals in Fluminense's in Copa Libertadores matches last season: 9/2/10/3/6/7/8/11/6/8/6/2/4, so 9-4 to the Over 5.5 Cards with an average of 6.3 cards/match

Fluminense's matches in the Brazilian Serie A last season produced a total of 242 cards, or an average of 6.36 cards/match, with Fluminense's Team Total Cards sitting at 3.57/match.

CERRO PORTENO CARD STATS:

Cerro Porteno's match against Alianza Lima in the Copa Libertadores Match Day 2 had 8 cards (4 for Cerro), their match against Colo Colo in Match Day 1 had 6 cards (3 for Cerro). 

Card Totals in Cerro Porteno's league matches in 2024: 7/4/10/5/4/6/5/6/4/2/5/5, an average of 5.25 cards/match

Last season, Cerro Porteno met Brazilian sides twice in the Copa Libertadores (Fortaleza and Palmeiras), with the Card Totals in 4 matches being: 6/6/5/8, so 3-1 to the Over 5.5 Cards with an average of 6.25 cards/match

Card Totals in Cerro Porteno's Copa Libertadores matches last season: 5/8/7/5/3/9/6/6/7/5, so 6-4 to the Over 5.5 Cards with an average of 6.1 cards/match

Card Totals in Cerro Porteno's Copa Libertadores matches in 2021/22: 7/5/7/6/7/6, so 5-1 to the Over 5.5 Cards with an average of 6.33 cards/match

Lastly, the two teams met in the round of 16 of the Copa Libertadores back in 2021, where the two matches produced 9 and 1 cards respectively.

I consider the Cards Line at 5.5 to be a gift, despite laying the -133 juice to get it. This match can blow up to 7-8-9-10 cards given the right circumstances, and Fluminense will go all-in for a win that would most likely see them through to the next round, while Cerro Porteno will try to physically respond to Fluminense's talent. And also keep in mind that Fluminense have some really hot-headed players that WILL start kicking sooner or later.

Cerro Porteno have two very demanding away matches coming up, at Alianza Lima and Fluminense, before hosting Colo Colo in the final match day, so they absolutely need to get some points against Fluminense on Thursday, otherwise their qualfication chances will be small. 

And to tie all that up, the referee is probably THE best referee for cards, so a quiet game with very few cards would be a HUGE upset. I don't usually release 4% Card Props, but I'll be damned if this match doesn't end up in a card-fest.

Take 4u on the Over 5.5 Cards (-133) 
 

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago